(CONFIDENTIAL // UKRAINE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE // AI ANALYSIS)

Daily Intelligence Summary: Ukraine Theater

DATE: May 8, 2025 REPORTING PERIOD: May 7, 15:00 UTC – May 8, 13:00 UTC (Approximate)

Prepared For: High Command Prepared By: Military Intelligence AI Assistant (UKR/MI-AIA)

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I. Executive Summary

The operational tempo remains high across the front, marked by intense ground engagements and significant aerial activity, despite Russia's declared three-day "Victory Day ceasefire." This ceasefire appears largely disregarded, particularly by Russian forces who continue offensive operations and heavy shelling, and by Ukrainian forces engaged in defensive actions and cross-border operations. The Pokrovsk axis remains the most contested ground front, with Ukrainian forces repelling numerous attacks. Ukrainian forces continue offensive actions in Russia's Kursk Oblast, reportedly using armored vehicles and achieving limited penetration against stiff Russian resistance, resulting in casualties on both sides and significant Russian propaganda focus.

Overnight (May 7-8), Ukraine conducted widespread UAV attacks against targets deep within Russia, confirmed hitting at least two military airfields (Kubinka, Shaikovka) and causing disruptions at multiple civilian airports. Russia responded with guided aerial bomb (KAB) and FPV drone attacks, particularly targeting civilian areas and infrastructure in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, causing further civilian casualties. A significant Ukrainian prisoner capture operation was reported, alongside the award of Hero of Ukraine to Colonel Pavlo Rozlach for previous actions in Kursk Oblast.

The information space is saturated with Victory Day narratives from both sides. Russia emphasizes historical revisionism and military might, while Ukraine counters with messages of remembrance, resilience, and condemnation of Russian aggression. Diplomatic activity includes the ongoing Putin-Xi meeting in Moscow, underscoring the deepening Russia-China strategic partnership, and Ukrainian engagements with Western partners regarding military aid and ceasefire possibilities. Reports of EU preparations to formally accuse Russia of using chemical weapons (CS gas) represent a potentially significant international development.

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II. Key Developments & Activities

A. Operational Environment & Ground Combat

1. Russian "Ceasefire" Ineffective: Despite the declared three-day ceasefire (May 8-10), intense combat operations continued unabated. Ukrainian sources report over 700 Russian ceasefire violations within the first 12 hours, including numerous ground assaults, shellings, and air/drone strikes. Russian sources acknowledge ongoing fighting, particularly in Kursk, blaming Ukrainian aggression. The ceasefire appears to be a purely symbolic or informational measure with no impact on ground reality.
2. Kursk Oblast Incursion: Ukrainian forces maintained pressure in the Kursk border region, focusing on the Tyotkino and Novy Put areas. Reports indicate Ukrainian use of armored vehicles (including French VABs), engineering equipment, and potentially quad bikes for infiltration attempts. Russia claims to have repelled these attacks, inflicting significant losses (tanks, BMPs, IMRs) and potentially encircling some Ukrainian units near the border outpost at Tetkino. Ukrainian sources confirm striking a Russian UAV command post in the area and acknowledge the intensity of the fighting. The Ukrainian award to Col. Rozlach for prior Kursk operations underscores the strategic significance attributed to these actions.
3. Eastern Front:
   • Pokrovsk Axis: Remains the epicenter of fighting, with 41 Russian assaults reported by 16:00 UTC (May 8). Ukraine reports repelling most attacks but acknowledges ongoing engagements. Russia claims continued advances and the capture of Troitskoye (DNR) before the ceasefire declaration, aiming towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.
   • Novopavlivka Axis: High intensity continues (19 Russian attacks reported). Russia claims advances west of Novoselivka and near Bogatyr.
   • Lyman Axis: Significant Russian activity (17 attacks reported). Russia claims advances west of Kamenka (Kupyansk direction) and occupation of the Bilohorivka chalk quarry (Siversk direction). Ukrainian units like the SIGNUM battalion report successful counter-battery/drone actions.
   • Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar): Fighting continues, with 4 Russian assaults reported. Russian sources claim advances north of the city, entering the "Severny" mine area.
   • Toretsk Axis: Renewed fighting after a period of relative quiet, with 5 Russian attacks reported. Russia claims advances west of Nelepovka and towards Leonidivka.
   • Kupyansk Axis: 3 Russian assaults reported, with 1 ongoing. Russian sources claim advances west of Kamenka.
   • Siversk Axis: 2 Russian attacks repelled. Russia claims advances in the Bilohorivka chalk quarry area.
4. Southern Front (Zaporizhzhia, Kherson): Lower intensity ground combat compared to the east. Ukraine repelled 3 Russian assaults on the Orikhiv direction. Russian forces conducted extensive shelling (407 incidents, ~1800 rounds) and drone attacks (660 kamikaze, ~400 drops) across the southern front. Intensive shelling reported in Nova Kakhovka (Kherson Oblast), resulting in a civilian fatality.

B. Aerial & Missile Activity

1. Russian Air/Drone Strikes: Continued heavy bombardment.
   • UAVs: Russia employed a mix of Shaheds and "simulators" in large numbers overnight (May 7-8). Significant strikes hit Kharkiv (20 impacts, 4 injured, market fire) and Odesa Raion (1 KIA, 1 WIA). FPV drone attack injured 3 civilians in a car in Kharkiv Oblast. FPV drone attacked an ambulance in Oleshky (Kherson). Russian drones targeted military facilities in Torskoye (Donetsk). Ongoing drone activity reported across multiple regions. Russia claimed 300 Ukrainian drone attacks since the ceasefire began.
   • Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs): Persistent use against Sumy Oblast (Nova Sloboda, Brusky, Boyaro-Lezhachi), causing casualties and destruction. Also reported in Dnipropetrovsk (Novopavlivska community - 1 WIA) and Kharkiv (Zolochiv - 2 children injured). Ukrainian General Staff reported 10 KAB strikes by 16:00 UTC.
   • Missiles: Ballistic missile threat warnings issued for eastern and southern Ukraine. A missile hit Velyka Chernechchyna (Sumy) (Previous report: 3 KIA, 8 WIA). Missile reported heading towards Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk). Russian MoD claims intercepting a Ukrainian Neptune missile and HIMARS rockets.
2. Ukrainian Deep Strikes: Confirmed drone attacks on Russian territory:
   • Airfields: Kubinka (Moscow Oblast) and Shaikovka (Kaluga Oblast) confirmed hit, with fires detected by NASA FIRMS. Aimed at disrupting Victory Day preparations and strategic aviation.
   • Industrial Facilities: Strikes on "Strela" plant (Bryansk), "Saranskkaбель" & "Optical Fiber Systems" (Saransk), "Splav" plant (Tula).
   • Other Regions: Drones intercepted/impacted across at least 11 Russian Oblasts, causing airport closures/delays (Moscow, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, etc.).
3. Naval Activity: Black Sea remains relatively quiet regarding surface combatants. No Russian Kalibr carriers currently deployed in the Black or Azov Seas. One carrier remains in the Mediterranean. Reports of Russian counter-USV activities continue.

C. Other Significant Developments</h3>

• Prisoner Exchange: Successful return of 205 Ukrainian personnel.
• Potential Russian Chemical Weapon Use: EU reportedly preparing official accusations regarding CS gas use by Russia.
• Ukrainian Military Developments: Transition to corps structure initiated. Bill for Military Ombudsman submitted. High-level discussions with EU Military Committee. Awarding of high honors (Hero of Ukraine) to SBU Chief Malyuk and Colonel Rozlach (for Kursk operation).
• Russian-Chinese Summit: Putin and Xi Jinping concluded talks, signing a joint statement emphasizing strategic partnership, mutual support, economic cooperation (especially energy and national currency settlements), and a shared view on WWII history and the need for a "multipolar world order." Mentioned working towards a political settlement in Ukraine.
• International Relations: Turkey potentially considering mediation role. EU preparing 17th sanctions package against Russia and €1bn aid for Ukrainian arms production. Kazakhstan and Berlin restrict Russian Victory Day symbols.
• Internal Security: Shooting in Kyiv Oblast (Sofiivska Borshchahivka, suspect detained). Arrest of activist in St. Petersburg. Continued reports of internal Russian issues (MVD reshuffle, stranded tourists, veteran issues, corruption investigations).

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IV. Assessment & Outlook

The battlefield dynamics remain largely unchanged, with Russia maintaining offensive pressure in the east and Ukraine executing a dynamic defense combined with disruptive cross-border and deep strike operations. The claimed Russian ceasefire is demonstrably false in operational terms, likely serving political and propaganda purposes ahead of Victory Day.

• Kursk Operation Significance: Ukraine's sustained effort in Kursk, despite claimed Russian successes in repelling attacks, forces Russia to dedicate resources to border defense. The official recognition of Col. Rozlach for past Kursk operations reinforces this strategic intent. However, the operation carries risks, including equipment losses and potential escalation.
• Eastern Front Grind: Intense combat, particularly around Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka, continues to yield slow, costly Russian advances. Ukraine's ability to hold key defensive lines and inflict heavy losses remains critical.
• Aerial Warfare: Both sides heavily utilize drones for reconnaissance, attack, and deep strikes. Ukraine's successful strikes on Russian airfields and industrial targets highlight Russia's vulnerabilities. Russia's continued large-scale drone/missile attacks, despite interceptions, pose a persistent threat to Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure. The potential EU accusation of chemical weapon use could significantly escalate international pressure on Russia.
• Victory Day Context: The period around May 9th is likely to see intensified information warfare and potentially symbolic military actions by both sides. Russian efforts to project strength and international support contrast with Ukrainian counter-narratives and reported limitations on Victory Day celebrations in other countries.
• Geopolitical Alignments: The Putin-Xi meeting reaffirms the deepening Russia-China axis, providing Moscow with crucial political and economic support, though direct military aid remains unconfirmed.

Outlook: High-intensity combat will likely persist, especially in the east and along the Kursk border. Expect continued aerial exchanges, including drone attacks and KAB usage. The period around May 9th warrants heightened vigilance for potential escalations or significant events. The international community's response to the alleged chemical weapon use and the outcomes of ongoing diplomatic efforts remain key variables.

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(End Summary)