Operational Intelligence Report: Ukrainian Perspective (09 May 2025, 00:00Z - 12:00Z)

Overall Situation:

The past 24 hours, including the Russian-declared "Victory Day ceasefire," have been marked by continued and intense Russian offensive operations across multiple axes, most notably in the Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Novopavlivka directions. Ukrainian forces are actively engaged in defensive operations, repelling numerous assaults and inflicting losses on the aggressor. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces continue to conduct cross-border operations in the Kursk region, aiming to disrupt Russian logistics and exert pressure. Russian aerial bombardment, utilizing drones, guided aerial bombs (KABs), and missiles, remains a significant threat, causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. The information domain is heavily contested, with Russia leveraging Victory Day for extensive propaganda, while Ukraine highlights ongoing Russian aggression and Ukrainian resilience.

Key Developments & Trends:

• Ceasefire Violation & Continued Ground Combat:

  • The Russian-declared "Victory Day ceasefire" has been widely violated by Russian forces, with high-intensity combat reported across the front. The Ukrainian General Staff reported 154 combat engagements as of 22:00 UTC on May 8th, a slight decrease from the previous day but still indicative of significant activity. (Multiple Ukrainian and Russian sources)
  • Pokrovsk Axis: Remains the most intense sector, with 55 Russian assaults reported by Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) by 16:00 UTC. Russian forces are reportedly attempting to advance east of Pokrovsk towards Mirnograd and Konstantinovka, claiming tactical gains near Lysovka, Troitskoye, and Pershe-Travnya. Ukrainian forces are engaged in heavy defensive battles, with reports of repelling mechanized assaults, particularly by the 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade and the 108th Battalion "Wolves of Da Vinci." (UGS, Rybar, Сливочный каприз, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 46 окрема аеромобільна Подільська бригада ДШВ ЗС України, Десантно-штурмові війська ЗС України, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS)
  • Lyman Direction: UGS reported 21 Russian attacks. Russian sources claim advances west of Novovodyane and consolidation of control. (UGS, Рыбарь)
  • Novopavlivka Direction: UGS reported 25 Russian attacks. Russian sources claim advances in the areas of Uspenivka, Troitskoye, and Alexeevka, and clearing the southern part of Bohodyr and expanding control near Kotlyarivka and Otradne. (UGS, Сили оборони Півдня України, Z комитет + карта СВО, Colonelcassad)
  • Kursk Border Region: Significant fighting continues, with Ukrainian forces conducting cross-border operations and Russian forces attempting to repel them. Russian MoD claims four Ukrainian attempts to breach the border. Ukrainian sources confirm their presence in Hormal', Kursk Oblast. Both sides report equipment losses and casualties. Russian forces are reportedly using aviation bombs in the area. (Оперативний ЗСУ, Рыбарь, Два майора, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, Военкор Котенок)
  • Kherson Direction (Antonovsky Bridge): Reports indicate Ukrainian activity near the Antonovsky Bridge, with Russian sources claiming to be engaging a Ukrainian landing group. (Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, Военкор Котенок)

• Aerial & Missile Warfare:

  • Russian Strikes: Continued Russian aerial bombardment across Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force reported activity of Russian tactical aviation on the northeastern and southeastern directions, with threats of guided aerial missiles and KABs. A Russian missile was intercepted over Myrhorod district, Poltava Oblast.
  • Ukrainian Strikes: Ukrainian drone attacks targeted Russian territory, including the Belgorod government building, causing injuries. Ukrainian SOF reportedly conducted a successful drone-supported rescue of captured Ukrainian soldiers on the Zaporizhzhia front. Ukrainian drone units continue to inflict damage on Russian armor and personnel along the front lines.
  • Air Defense: The Ukrainian Air Force continues to counter Russian aerial threats. The Russian MoD claims to have shot down a significant number of Ukrainian UAVs and missiles over the past week.

• Information Warfare & Propaganda:

  • Victory Day Dominance: Russia is extensively using Victory Day for propaganda, linking the historical narrative of WWII to the current conflict. This includes large-scale military parades, patriotic displays, and official statements.
  • Counter-Narratives: Ukraine is actively countering Russian narratives by highlighting ongoing Russian aggression, civilian casualties, and Ukrainian resilience. The "Mortal Regiment" actions by the Ukrainian diaspora serve as a direct counter to Russia's "Immortal Regiment."
  • Allegations of Foreign Involvement: Russian sources continue to claim North Korean military involvement on their side, particularly in Kursk Oblast.
  • Allegations of Atrocities: Reports of alleged execution of Ukrainian POWs by Russian forces are being investigated. Russian sources are also making counter-claims.

• International Developments:

  • EU Support: Ukraine received €1 billion from the EU from frozen Russian assets, with another €1 billion allocated for arms procurement. EU Foreign Ministers met in Lviv, reaffirming support and approving the creation of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Russia.
  • US Engagement: President Zelenskyy held a phone call with former US President Donald Trump, discussing peace efforts and a potential ceasefire. US Vice President J.D. Vance commented on US policy regarding peace negotiations and territorial integrity.
  • UK Sanctions: The UK is set to impose new sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet" of oil tankers.
  • Regional Dynamics: Tensions between Ukraine and Hungary continue, with Hungary expelling Ukrainian diplomats following SBU's uncovering of an alleged Hungarian intelligence network. Lithuania has withdrawn from the Ottawa Convention, citing threats from Russia and Belarus.

• Internal Russian Developments:

  • Mobilization: Reports indicate the full rollout of Russia's electronic subpoena system.
  • Security: Widespread internet outages were reported across Russia, attributed to anti-drone measures, particularly in Moscow.
  • Economy: China-Russia trade turnover has reportedly decreased.

Key Trends & Observations:

• Unyielding Russian Offensive Pressure: Russia continues to exert significant offensive pressure across multiple fronts, particularly in the Donetsk region, despite their declared ceasefire. Their focus appears to be on making incremental territorial gains.
• Ukrainian Resilience and Counter-Actions: Ukrainian forces are demonstrating resilience in defense and are actively conducting offensive actions, including cross-border operations and deep strikes, to disrupt Russian capabilities and logistics.
• Escalation of Information Warfare: The Victory Day period has seen a significant intensification of information warfare, with both sides leveraging historical narratives and current events to shape perceptions.
• Growing International Pressure on Russia: The EU's financial support for Ukraine through frozen Russian assets and the move towards establishing a special tribunal indicate increasing international resolve to hold Russia accountable. New UK sanctions further add to the economic pressure.
• Logistical and Personnel Challenges: Both sides continue to face logistical challenges, as evidenced by ongoing fundraising efforts and reports of equipment needs. Personnel issues, including casualties and morale, remain a factor.

Outlook:

The conflict is expected to remain at a high intensity, with continued Russian offensive operations and Ukrainian counter-efforts. The Kursk border region will likely remain a significant area of friction. Russian Victory Day celebrations will continue to be a focal point for propaganda, while Ukraine will likely counter with its own narratives. The international community's actions, particularly regarding sanctions and support for Ukraine, will continue to play a crucial role. The reported discussion about a 30-day ceasefire between President Zelenskyy and Donald Trump, and German Chancellor Merz's support for such an initiative, introduces a new dynamic, but its realization remains highly uncertain given the current battlefield realities.