Military Intelligence Daily Summary: Ukrainian Perspective

CONFIDENTIAL // FOR UKRAINIAN HIGH COMMAND USE ONLY

Date: March 29, 2025 Time: 17:05 UTC Reporting Period: March 28, 17:05 UTC - March 29, 17:05 UTC

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I. Executive Summary

The operational situation remains characterized by extremely high intensity combat across the front, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction, which continues to be the primary focus of Russian offensive efforts. Russia maintains significant pressure along the Lyman, Kupyansk, and Toretsk axes, and has intensified operations along the Sumy/Kursk border, claiming the capture of Veselovka (Sumy Oblast). Ukrainian forces continue defensive operations, repelling numerous assaults and conducting cross-border actions, including drone strikes and capturing Russian POWs in Kursk Oblast.

Overnight (Mar 28/29), Russia launched another massive Shahed UAV strike (over 100 drones reported) targeting multiple regions. While Ukrainian Air Defenses intercepted a significant number (94 confirmed), confirmed impacts caused extensive civilian casualties and damage, notably in Dnipro City (4 KIA, 25 WIA). This morning (Mar 29), a Russian ballistic missile struck Kryvyi Rih, causing further civilian casualties (9 WIA) and infrastructure damage. The persistent threat from Russian KABs, tactical aviation, and naval missile carriers continues.

Significant Russian claims of territorial gains have emerged, including the capture of Panteleimonivka (Toretsk direction) and Shcherbaky (Zaporizhzhia direction), alongside alleged breakthroughs near Kotliarivka (Pokrovsk direction) towards the Dnipropetrovsk border. These claims require urgent verification but indicate potential tactical successes for Russian forces in key sectors.

The information space remains highly contested, with Russia amplifying claims of Ukrainian atrocities, attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, and significant Ukrainian losses, while Ukrainian sources highlight Russian civilian targeting, successful defensive actions, and drone effectiveness. Diplomatic efforts continue, overshadowed by the ongoing hostilities and conflicting narratives regarding ceasefires.

Key Priorities:

1. Verify Major Russian Claims: Urgently confirm/refute claims regarding the capture of Panteleimonivka, Shcherbaky, Veselovka, and the alleged breakthrough near Kotliarivka. Assess implications for operational posture.
2. Maintain Air Defense Posture: Continue high alert against persistent Russian air/missile/drone threats, focusing on protecting critical infrastructure and population centers. Adapt to evolving Russian tactics (e.g., drone swarms).
3. Reinforce Key Defensive Lines: Prioritize resource allocation to stabilize the front in the Pokrovsk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Kupyansk directions. Address reported Russian pressure near Chasiv Yar and potential advances near Razliv (Novopavlivsk).
4. Monitor & Counter Border Threats: Continue defensive operations and cross-border actions in Kursk/Belgorod regions to disrupt Russian staging and logistics. Assess Russian intent regarding the claimed "buffer zone".
5. Counter Russian Information Operations: Actively refute disinformation regarding strikes, territorial control, and alleged Ukrainian atrocities.

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II. Air, Missile, Drone, and Naval Activity

• Major Russian Strikes (Night Mar 28/29 & Mar 29 Morning):
  • Overnight Shahed Attack: Over 170 assets launched (incl. >100 Shaheds). 94 Shahed/other UAVs confirmed shot down by UA AF. SDF downed 4 Shaheds. Kyiv defenses downed 16 near the capital. DPSU mobile groups downed 3 in Sumy.
    • Impacts (Confirmed): Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi Oblasts affected.
    • Dnipro City: 4 civilians KIA, 25 WIA (9 hospitalized, 2 critical). Extensive damage to civilian infrastructure (hotel complex, homes, administrative/educational buildings, vehicles). March 30 declared day of mourning.
    • Okhtyrka District (Sumy): Recreation base destroyed.
    • Kharkiv Oblast: Widespread damage/fires from Shaheds/shelling/MLRS/drones. 1 civilian WIA (Liutivka), 1 civilian WIA (Borova). Power outages (>7400 subscribers).
    • Kyiv Oblast: No casualties/destruction within Kyiv city limits.
  • Ballistic Missile Strike (Kryvyi Rih, Mar 29 AM): Attack confirmed. 9 civilians WIA (3 hospitalized). Damage to multi-story buildings, homes, school, car wash, vehicles, infrastructure object. War crime investigation initiated.
• Ongoing Threats & Activity (As of 16:56 UTC):
  • Persistent Russian tactical aviation activity (East/NE/SE axes).
  • Continued KAB launches towards Sumy Oblast, Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia border.
  • Russian reconnaissance UAV activity reported (Sumy, Kharkiv, Cherkasy Oblasts).
• Russian Tactics: Reports persist of new Shahed "swarm" tactics (gathering at altitude before simultaneous dives).
• Overall Russian Strikes (Past 24hrs - UGS 06:00): 1 missile strike (5 missiles), 94 air strikes (179 KABs on UA territory, 44 KABs on Kursk), 5899 shellings (145 MLRS), 2853 kamikaze drones used. Southern Front specifics (SDF): >320 shellings, 510 kamikaze drones, >230 drone drops, 23 KABs, ~100 NARs.
• Alleged Ukrainian Strikes on RU Territory/Infrastructure:
  • RU MoD claims continued UA UAV/HIMARS attacks on energy infrastructure (Belgorod/Kursk), including destruction of Sudzha GMS (Kursk).
  • RU MoD claims 3 UA UAVs shot down over Belgorod Oblast overnight.
• Naval Missile Threat Assessment (UGS 06:00 UTC):
  • Black Sea: 2 Kalibr carriers (up to 8 missiles).
  • Mediterranean Sea: 3 Kalibr carriers (up to 26 missiles).
• Ukrainian Counter-Strikes & Air Defense (Past 24hrs - UGS/Other Sources):
  • General (UGS): Hits reported on 9 RU concentration areas, 1 AD system, 1 C2 point, 2 artillery systems, 2 other targets.
  • Drone Effectiveness: UA Naiev claims 70% RU losses from drones; 81st Airmobile claims destruction of 6 RU recon UAVs (3 Zala, 3 Supercam); Successful FPV strikes by 3rd Assault, 63rd Brigades, 77th Airmobile, SSO "Sokil" (downed Lancet), 60th Mech Recon, 156th TDF (Kursk equipment), International Legion.
  • Air Strike (UA CLAIM): On RU command post in occupied Velyka Novosilka.
  • Partisan Activity: Mariupol Resistance claims successful arson attack on RU military base/parking area (Mar 23).

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III. Ground Combat Operations & Border Areas

• Overall Intensity: High. 143 combat engagements reported across the front since 16:00 UTC Mar 29 (UGS 16:00).
• Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod Border Operations:
  • Ukrainian Actions/Claims: UGS (16:00) reports repelling 17 RU attacks in Kursk Oblast; 2 ongoing. DPSU spokesperson denies RU breakthrough/capture of Veselivka, confirming small RU assault group attempts towards Novenke/Zhuravka are intercepted. UA forces conduct drone strikes in Kursk Oblast (156th TDF). 5 RU POWs captured (UA DShV). UA forces previously confirmed advance into Popovka (Belgorod) (ISW).
  • Russian Actions/Claims: MoD confirms capture of Veselovka (Sumy), claims capture of Hoholivka (Kursk), asserts control. Claims ongoing assaults on Basovka, Vladimirovka (Sumy border), Oleshnia (Kursk). Claims clearing Demydovka (Belgorod) but acknowledges UA presence. Claims inflicting >190 daily UA casualties in Kursk direction. Alleges UA uses motion-sensor mines in residential buildings (Kursk). Claims ongoing Ukrainian shelling/drone attacks in Belgorod Oblast.
• Kharkiv Direction: UGS (16:00) reports stopping one RU attack near Vovchansk.
• Kupyansk Direction: UGS (16:00) reports 3 RU assault actions towards Pishchane and near Zahryzove. Previous RU claims (Mar 28) of advances near Dvurichanskyi bridgehead require verification. UA 77th Airmobile reports destroying RU tank.
• Lyman Direction: CRITICAL INTENSITY. UGS (16:00) reports 13 RU attacks near multiple settlements; 3 ongoing. Terny assessed as likely Russian-occupied (ISW).
• Siversk Direction: UGS (16:00) reports repelling 2 RU attacks near Ivanо-Darivka and Pereizne; 1 ongoing.
• Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar): UGS (16:00) reports halting 10 RU attempts to advance near multiple settlements including Chasiv Yar; 3 ongoing. RU sources claim repelling UA mechanized counter-attack (42nd or 24th Mech Bde) west of Chasiv Yar. Potential new UA tactical sign observed (Requires verification).
• Toretsk Direction: HIGH INTENSITY. UGS (16:00) reports 12 RU attacks repelled near Krymske, Toretsk, towards Dyliivka. RU CLAIM: Capture of Panteleimonivka (NE of Horlivka). (Requires verification). Ukrainian source claims very high RU MIA figures (13,500) in this sector (Requires verification).
• Pokrovsk Direction: HIGHEST INTENSITY. UGS (16:00) reports 58 RU attempts near multiple settlements; 45 repelled, 13 ongoing. Significant RU Breakthrough Claim (Unverified): RU sources claim multi-kilometer breakthrough past Kotliarivka towards Dnipropetrovsk border. (Requires urgent verification). RU sources claim targeting UA Starlink terminals near Pokrovske.
• Novopavlivsk Direction: UGS (16:00) reports 12 RU attacks near Kostiantynopil, Skudne, towards Rozlyv; 6 ongoing. RU claims entry into Razliv and ongoing fighting.
• Huliaipole Direction: UGS (16:00) reports 9 RU attacks near Pryvilne, Novosilka, towards Novopil. Russian airstrikes hit Huliaipole.
• Zaporizhzhia Direction (Orikhiv Sector): UGS (16:00) reports 2 RU attacks near Kamyanske and Lobkove; 1 ongoing. RU CLAIM: Capture of Shcherbaki. Geolocated FPV strike claimed destroying UA tank near Novopavlivka. Ukrainian logistical reinforcement (drones, EW, fuel) reported in this sector (Zaporizhzhia OVA).
• Kherson Direction (Prydniprovsky): UGS (16:00) reports 2 unsuccessful RU offensive actions towards Sadove and Prydniprianske. Ukrainian Claim (Partisan): Russia relocating AD/EW systems (incl. Pole-21) from Crimea to Kherson Oblast. RU claims increased UA attempts to establish footholds near railway bridge, suppressed by RU drones.

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IV. Other Military-Relevant Developments

• Russian Strategic Assessment: Reports persist regarding potential Russian preparations for a large-scale spring/summer offensive across the front (AP/G7/UA Intel). Biletsky assessment suggests RU focus on attrition.
• Technology & Tactics:
  • Russian: Increased use of motorcycles/quads for rapid assaults reported. Alleged Shahed "swarm" tactics described. Continued heavy FPV use. Use of specialized TM-62 mine rigs. Deployment of Pole-21 EW to Kherson.
  • Ukrainian: High potential drone production capacity (>5M FPV/yr) confirmed but limited by funding (actual ~2M in 2024). Alleged new FP-1 long-range kamikaze drones claimed by RU sources. Reports of new drone tactics bypassing EW near Nova Kakhovka. Potential new tactical sign near Chasiv Yar.
• Logistics & Personnel:
  • Ukrainian: Significant drone/EW/fuel deliveries reported to Zaporizhzhia front units. Recruitment efforts ongoing. Rehabilitation support for returned POWs.
  • Russian: Continued reliance on penal recruits reported. High MIA figures indicated by family appeals. Internal security operations continue (FSB Moscow bomb plot claim). Defense industry figure recaptured after attempting contract escape.
• International Cooperation & Aid:
  • IMF approved $400 million tranche for Ukraine.
  • Controversy continues regarding alleged harsh terms in proposed US resource/aid deal.
  • Contradictory statements persist regarding "energy ceasefire" validity.
  • Finnish President Stubb clarifies potential troop deployment only post-ceasefire. Hungarian FM emphasizes need for US-Russia agreement.
• Information Operations: Intense narrative competition continues. RU focuses on territorial gains, alleged UA attacks on civilians/energy, UA losses/internal issues. UA highlights Russian losses, successful defense, drone effectiveness, civilian targeting by RU, border integrity, and international support.

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(End Summary)