Military Intelligence Daily Summary: Ukrainian Perspective

CONFIDENTIAL // FOR UKRAINIAN HIGH COMMAND USE ONLY

Date: March 30, 2025 Time: 08:56 UTC Reporting Period: March 29, 17:05 UTC - March 30, 08:56 UTC

I. Overall Situation Assessment & Key Developments

• Combat Intensity: Remains HIGH across multiple axes. 223 combat engagements reported across the front over the past 24 hours (Ukrainian General Staff - UGS, Mar 30, 05:00 UTC).
• Russian Strikes (Past 24h - UGS): 1 missile strike, 91 aviation strikes (using 153 KABs), deployment of 2,745 kamikaze drones, and over 6,000 shelling attacks (184 from MLRS). President Zelenskyy cited 1,310 KABs, >1000 drones, and 9 missiles used by Russia in the past week, highlighting the scale of the air threat.
• Primary Russian Focus: The Pokrovsk Direction continues to be the epicenter of Russian offensive efforts, with 93 Russian attacks repelled by Ukrainian forces (UGS, Mar 30 morning). Significant Russian pressure also persists on the Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Kursk/Sumy border directions.
• Other Active Fronts (Attacks Past 24h - UGS): Lyman (23), Toretsk (19), Novopavlivsk (15), Kramatorsk (13), Huliaipole (9), Kupyansk (6), Kharkiv (4), Siversk (3), Orikhiv (2), Prydniprovsky (2).
• Southern Front Activity (Past 24h - SDF South): ~260 Russian shelling incidents (~1120 rounds), 340 kamikaze drone strikes, >230 UAV munition drops, 8 KAB strikes, ~44 NAR strikes reported. Ukrainian forces continue fire missions, inflicting losses (See Section V).
• Russian Offensive Assessment: Independent analysis (ISW, Mar 30) assesses recent intensified Russian operations lack tactically significant successes. However, Russian sources claim gradual advances on several axes, emphasizing offensive action as key leverage. Reports highlight RU reliance on mobilized personnel and concerns about declining civilian aid impacting frontline capabilities (Dva Mayora).
• Ukrainian Actions (Past 24h - UGS/SDF South/Other): Ukrainian forces maintain an active defense, repelling numerous assaults. Aviation, rocket troops, and artillery targeted 5 Russian concentration areas and 1 command post. FPV drone units remain highly effective against personnel and equipment. Partisan activity confirmed destroying a Russian EW truck in Kherson Oblast. Air Defense continues countering mass drone/missile attacks.
• Northern Border: No signs of Russian offensive group formation detected in Volyn/Polissia (UGS). Intense fighting persists in Kursk/Belgorod border regions, with heavy Russian strikes impacting Sumy Oblast.
• Civilian Impact: Significant casualties resulted from Russian strikes on Kharkiv (2 KIA, 35 WIA) and Kryvyi Rih (9 WIA). Overnight drone attacks also impacted Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Poltava Oblasts. The deliberate strike on the Kharkiv Military Hospital is a confirmed violation of International Humanitarian Law. Civilian evacuations continue from Sumy border communities due to intense shelling.
• Information Environment: Russia heavily promotes claims of territorial gains and inflated Ukrainian casualties, particularly regarding Kursk operations. The NYT report detailing Western intelligence support is being leveraged by Russia to assign blame for attacks on its territory. Ukrainian sources focus on Russian civilian targeting, defensive successes, drone effectiveness, and highlight partisan actions.

II. Air, Missile, Drone & Naval Activity

• Overnight Attack Summary (Mar 29-30 - UA Air Force):
  • Russia launched 1 Ballistic Missile (Rostov Oblast) and 111 UAVs (Shahed/imitator types) from Russia/Crimea.
  • 65 Shahed/other UAVs destroyed by Ukrainian Air Defense. 35 imitator drones lost track.
  • Impacts confirmed in Kharkiv, Sumy, Odesa, Donetsk, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Poltava Oblasts.
• Threat Status (Updates as of 08:56 UTC):
  • RU Tactical Aviation: Active on eastern and northeastern directions; threat of air-launched weapons persists for frontline oblasts (UA Air Force).
  • KABs: Persistent threat. 153 KABs used in the past day (UGS).
  • Naval: 2 Russian Kalibr carriers active in the Black Sea (potential salvo: 8 missiles); none in Azov Sea (UA Navy).
• Recent Strikes & Interceptions:
  • Kharkiv (Mar 29/30 Attacks - UPDATED): Mass Shahed/missile attack. UGS confirmed hit on Military Hospital; military personnel among casualties (ASTRA/UGS). Civilian Casualties: 2 KIA (70yo F, 67yo M), 35 WIA (incl. 5 children), 1 acute stress reaction. Extensive damage to homes, market, RATS, college, IDP dormitory, shops, bank, offices, cars. (Syniehubov/ASTRA/Prosecutor Gen Office/RBC-Ukraina/Sternenko).
  • Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Ballistic missile hit residential area. 9 civilians WIA (SDF South).
  • Cherkasy & Kirovohrad Oblasts (Overnight Mar 29/30): Drone attacks caused debris fall, fires (RBC-Ukraina).
  • Poltava Oblast (Overnight Mar 29/30): Drone debris damaged house, camp building, power line (RBC-Ukraina).
  • Nikopol (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Hit by Grad MLRS overnight; damage reported (Lysak/Vilkul).
  • Kharkiv Oblast (Other - Past 24h): Damage from shelling/strikes in Tsyrkuny, Kupyansk, Slatyne (KAB strike), Borova (man WIA), Solonytsivka (Shahed debris) (Syniehubov).
  • Ukrainian Air Defense (Past Day): Total 111 Russian operational-tactical UAVs neutralized (UGS). 65 Shahed-type UAVs destroyed overnight (UA Air Force). Air Command "East" active. UA 34th NGU Regt downed Merlin-VR, 2x Orlan, 1x Zala UAVs (Sternenko).
  • Russian Claims (UA UAV Interceptions - Overnight Mar 29-30): Claimed destruction of 6 Ukrainian UAVs (3 Belgorod, 2 Bryansk, 1 Saratov Oblast) (RU MoD).

III. Border Operations (Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod)

• Ukrainian Actions (Kursk Zone): Defense Forces stopped 31 Russian attacks in the past day (UGS). Operations on Russian territory continue. Visual analysis suggests potential reduction in UA controlled area due to intense RU pressure (RBC-Ukraina map comparison).
• Russian Activity & Claims (Kursk Zone):
  • Conducted 18 air strikes (23 KABs) and 265 shelling attacks (UGS).
  • Ongoing intense combat reported in Huyevo, near Oleshnia, and Basovka area (RU Sources).
  • Claimed capture of UA strongpoint, POWs, foreign BMPs (RU Sources).
  • Claim liberation near MAPP Sudzha (RU Sources).
  • Claims >190 daily UA casualties and extremely high cumulative losses (likely inflated).
  • Alleges discovery of evidence of UA atrocities/looting in Sudzha area (IO, requires verification).
• Russian Activity & Claims (Belgorod Zone):
  • Maneuver defense reported near Demidovka and Popovka (contested) (RU Sources).
  • RU 34th Brigade claims engaging UA forces near Popovka outskirts (RU Sources).
  • Fundraising appeals indicate equipment strain (RU Sources).
• Russian Activity & Claims (Sumy Oblast Border Area):
  • Claim capture of Veselovka near Zhuravka (RU Sources). (Denied by UA DPSU Mar 29).
• Kharkiv/Sumy Border (UA Side): UGS reports repelling 4 RU attacks near Vovchansk and towards Kamyanka (Kharkiv). RU MoD claims snipers disrupted UA rotation. OTU "Kharkiv" reports repelling attacks and inflicting losses (47 personnel, 139 eqpt units claimed).

IV. Frontline Developments by Direction

• Kharkiv: 4 RU attacks stopped (Vovchansk, Kamyanka area) (UGS / OTU "Kharkiv"). RU MoD claims sniper activity.
• Kupyansk: 6 RU assaults repelled (Pishchane, Petropavlivka, Zagryzove area) (UGS). RU claims expansion towards Krasne Pershe, consolidation on Oskil right bank, advance N of Stepova Novoselivka. RU claims M777 destruction near Shiykivka (RU MoD video).
• Lyman: 23 RU attacks repelled (near Nadiia, Yampilivka, Kolodiazi, Torske; towards Nove, Olhivka, Novomykhailivka) (UGS). Terny situation critical.
• Siversk: 3 RU attacks repelled (near Ivano-Darivka, Pereizne) (UGS). UA sources report repelling RU light vehicle assault, claim high RU losses (Butusov Plus).
• Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar): 13 engagements (multiple locations incl. Chasiv Yar) (UGS). RU claims repelling UA counter-attacks. RU claims spotting new UA tactical marking.
• Toretsk: 19 RU attacks repelled (near Krymske, Toretsk; towards Dyliivka) (UGS). RU claims capture of Oleksandropil, Panteleimonivka; fighting for Tarasivka. RU claims mortar position destruction near Shcherbynivka.
• Pokrovsk: HIGHEST INTENSITY. 93 RU offensive actions stopped (multiple locations incl. Novotoretske, Oleksandropil, Udachne, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka) (UGS). UA drone units active (46th Airmobile Bde claims 180 RU neutralized, 119 UAVs destroyed Mar 23-29). RU claims breaking into Novooleksandrivka.
• Novopavlivsk: 15 RU attacks stopped (near Kostyantynopil, Skudne; towards Rozlyv) (UGS). RU claims advances in Komar direction and towards/in Razliv. UA sources reportedly acknowledge difficult situation in Razliv.
• Huliaipole: 9 RU attacks repelled (near Pryvilne, Novosilka; towards Novopil) (UGS / SDF South).
• Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia): 2 RU attacks repelled (near Kam'yanske, Lobkove) (UGS / SDF South). RU claims advances near Shcherbaky/Stepove, objective reaching Kam'yanske-Orikhiv road. Claims UA soldiers surrendered near Luhove. RU claim concentration of 70k personnel in sector.
• Prydniprovsky (Left Bank Kherson): 2 unsuccessful RU assaults towards Sadove and Prydniprovske (UGS / SDF South). Partisan activity confirmed destroying RU EW truck (GUR). RU claims renewed UA attempts near railway bridge.

V. Reported Losses & Casualties

• Russian Losses (UGS Claim, Past 24h):
  • Personnel: +1510 (Total ~914,000)
  • Tanks: +14
  • AFVs: +20
  • Artillery Systems: +56
  • MLRS: +2
  • UAV OTR: +111
  • Vehicles & Fuel Tanks: +130
• Russian Losses (SDF South Claim, Past 24h):
  • Personnel: 56
  • Tanks: 1
  • Artillery: 4
  • Vehicles/Armor: 15
  • UAVs (Recon): 2
  • Motorcycles: 6
  • Boat: 1
  • Antennas: 10 (Comms/Starlink/UAV Ctrl)
  • Storage Points: 2 (Ammo/Fuel)
  • Shelters Destroyed: 53
• Ukrainian Losses (RU Claims - Recent/Past 24h): M777 (Kupyansk), Kozak ACV, UAV launch point (Kupyansk), Tank & ACVs (Chasiv Yar), Mortar position (Toretsk), M113 APC (Pokrovsk), Numerous vehicles/equipment & >190 personnel (Kursk Border). Note: RU claims often inflated.
• Civilian Casualties (Recent Major Attacks - UPDATED):
  • Kharkiv (Attacks Mar 29/30): 2 KIA, 35 WIA (incl. 5 children).
  • Kharkiv Oblast (Other, Mar 29): 1 child stress reaction, 1 man WIA.
  • Kryvyi Rih (Ballistic Strike, Mar 29/30): 9 civilians WIA.
  • Cherkasy/Kirovohrad/Poltava (Drone Attack, Mar 29/30): Debris/fires, no casualties reported.
  • Nikopol (Attack Mar 29/30): No casualties reported.
  • Rodynske (Donetsk): Driver WIA from FPV strike on truck (Mar 29).

VI. Strategic Context & Geopolitical Developments

• US Strategic Focus Shift: Reports suggest US strategic pivot towards China, pressuring European allies for greater responsibility in deterring Russia (WP via Operativnyi ZSU).
• US Arctic Interest / Greenland: Continued US strategic interest noted (Rybar, Sternenko, Basurin, RVvoenkor).
• Baltic Security Concerns: Warnings persist that a Ukraine ceasefire could increase threats to Baltic states (FT via Tsaplienko/Operativnyi ZSU).
• Negotiations/Diplomacy: RU frames battlefield gains as key. RU sources note skepticism in Trump circles about quick resolution. RU sources amplify claim Zelenskyy willing to negotiate with RU opposition. Finnish President Stubb reportedly proposed Apr 20 ceasefire deadline to Trump (Tsaplienko, RBC-Ukraina).
• European Defense Posture: Assessment suggests increasing European military production/posture (Rybar). France developing MAST-F missile (Arkhangel Spetsnaza).
• Economic Outlook: IMF negative scenario projects war until mid-2026, impacting Ukrainian economy (RBC-Ukraina). Ukrainian banks plan stable credit rates, programs for military (RBC-Ukraina). WSJ analysis highlights RU war economy dependence (Tsaplienko, Operativnyi ZSU).