(CONFIDENTIAL // UKRAINE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE // DAILY SUMMARY)

DATE: May 7, 2025 REPORTING PERIOD: May 6, 15:00 UTC – May 7, 13:00 UTC (Approximate)

Prepared For: High Command Prepared By: Military Intelligence AI Assistant (UKR/MI-AIA)

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I. Executive Summary

The past 24 hours were marked by significant Russian aerial bombardment, particularly a large-scale, multi-phased drone and missile attack targeting Kyiv and other regions, resulting in confirmed civilian fatalities and injuries in the capital. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces executed widespread deep strikes using UAVs against industrial and military targets within Russia, including confirmed hits on defense plants in Saransk and Tula, and reported strikes on military airfields near Moscow (Kubinka) and in Kaluga Oblast (Shaikovka), causing significant disruptions to Russian air travel.

Ground combat remains intense, especially on the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka axes, where Ukrainian forces repelled numerous assaults. Ukrainian operations continue in the Kursk border region, with reports of armored engagements near Tyotkino and Novy Put'. Russia claims to have repelled these incursions and inflicted equipment losses, though conflicting reports suggest ongoing contested activity.

A major prisoner exchange saw the return of 205 Ukrainian service members. The alleged execution of Ukrainian POWs near Novopil is under investigation. Russian forces claimed the capture of Lysovka (Donetsk Oblast) and the first combat use of North Korean MLRS was reported.

Information operations are escalating ahead of May 9th, with Russia focusing on Victory Day narratives and Ukraine highlighting Russian aggression and its own resilience. Geopolitical tensions remain high, with the India-Pakistan border conflict escalating sharply.

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II. Key Developments & Activities

A. Russian Offensive Operations & Aerial Attacks:

1. Massive Aerial Attack on Ukraine:

   • Scale: Confirmed use of ballistic missiles and 142 drones (including Shaheds and simulators) launched overnight, according to President Zelenskyy. Widespread targeting across multiple oblasts.
   • Kyiv Impact: Severe impact on the capital.
     • Casualties: 2 civilians confirmed KIA (mother and son in Shevchenkivskyi district), 7 WIA (including 4 children) across multiple districts.
     • Damage: Significant damage to multi-story residential buildings (fires, partial destruction) in Sviatoshynskyi, Shevchenkivskyi, and Dniprovskyi districts. Non-residential infrastructure damaged in Solomianskyi district from intercepted missile debris.
     • Air Defense: Ukrainian AD successfully intercepted the ballistic missile and 11 strike UAVs over/near Kyiv. Continued drone waves targeted the capital through the morning.
   • Other Regions: Strikes reported in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Zhytomyr, Kherson, and Dnipro Oblasts. Ballistic missile strike on Sumy suburbs caused 3 KIA, 8 WIA. Infrastructure object destroyed in Konotop (Sumy) by combined drone/missile attack. Power outage reported in Sloviansk. Damage and casualties reported in Odesa Raion (1 KIA, 1 WIA), Kharkiv (4 WIA, market fire), Cherkasy (1 WIA), Dnipropetrovsk (8 WIA).
   • Tactics: Continued use of KABs against frontline areas. Use of "simulators" alongside strike drones. Reported use of aviation bombs during rescue operations in Sumy Oblast.

2. Ground Operations:

   • Pokrovsk Axis: Remains primary focus with 77 assaults repelled (May 6 data). Russia claims capture of Lysovka. Heavy fighting ongoing.
   • Novopavlivka Axis: High intensity with 23 assaults repelled (May 6 data). Intense fighting near multiple settlements. Russian sources claim tactical advances.
   • Lyman Axis: 21 Russian attacks repelled (May 6 data).
   • Southern Donetsk Axis: Russia claims advances near Velyka Novosilka, Bogatyr, and Otradnoye. MoD reports destroying Ukrainian strongholds/command posts with artillery.
   • Kursk Border Region: Russian forces continue defensive operations against Ukrainian incursions near Tetkino/Novy Put'. Conflicting reports on control, but sustained fighting confirmed. Russian claims of destroying significant Ukrainian armored equipment (IMR, M-113s, Bradley, Kozak, tank) and capturing POWs. Russia reports using aviation bombs (FABs) against Ukrainian positions within Tetkino.
   • Other Axes: Continued Russian assaults reported on Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Huliaipole, and Orikhiv axes (May 6 data).

B. Ukrainian Defensive & Offensive Operations:

1. Air Defense: Demonstrated capability against large-scale drone/missile attack, intercepting a ballistic missile over Kyiv and 81 strike UAVs out of 187 total aerial targets (incl. simulators) launched by Russia overnight May 6-7.
2. Deep Strikes into Russia:
   • Confirmed Industrial Hits: Drone attacks successfully targeted and caused fires at "Saranskkaбель" machine-building plant and JSC "Optical Fiber Systems" plant (sole RU optical fiber producer) in Saransk (Mordovia). Reported strike on NPO Splav MLRS plant production building in Tula. Reported strike on JSC "NPO Bazalt" aviation bomb plant in Krasnoarmiysk (Moscow Oblast).
   • Reported Airfield Strikes: Drone attacks reported on Kubinka military airfield (Moscow Oblast), potentially hitting parade aircraft, and Shaikovka airfield (Kaluga Oblast) (Tu-22m3 base). NASA FIRMS data confirms fires near both locations.
   • Other Interceptions/Impacts: Drones reported intercepted or impacting in Noginsk (Moscow Region), Voronezh, Penza, Belgorod, Lipetsk, Samara, Vladimir, Kursk, Rostov, and Vologda Oblasts.
   • Disruptions: Widespread temporary closures and significant delays/cancellations at multiple Russian airports (Moscow hubs, Nizhny Novgorod, Kazan, Samara, Yaroslavl, Tambov, Kaluga, Nizhnekamsk). Disruptions to mobile internet and other services (taxi, banking) reported in Moscow.
3. Ground Operations:
   • Kursk Border: Sustained offensive operations involving armored and engineering units near Tetkino/Novy Put, aiming to breach defenses. Confirmed breach of initial obstacles reported.
   • Eastern Front: Repelling numerous Russian assaults, particularly on the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Lyman axes. Claimed regaining of tactical initiative in unspecified areas on Pokrovsk axis. Active defense using drones and artillery (e.g., 35th Marines near Sribne). Claimed destruction of Russian "Buk-M1" SAM system.
   • Southern Front: Claimed destruction of Russian divers attempting infiltration on Donetsk direction. Ongoing positional battles.
4. Counter-Intelligence: SBU detained an alleged FSB agent in Sumy Oblast collecting intelligence on Ukrainian forces.

C. Humanitarian Situation:

• Civilian Casualties (Ukraine): Kyiv: 2 KIA, 7 WIA (4 children). Sumy Suburbs: 3 KIA, 8 WIA (incl. child). Zaporizhzhia: 7 WIA (prev. 4). Kharkiv: 4 WIA. Odesa Raion: 1 KIA, 1 WIA. Dnipropetrovsk: 8 WIA (Synelnykove KAB strike), 1 WIA (Ilaryonivska strike). Izium (Kharkiv Oblast): 2 KIA, 1 WIA from UXO.
• Civilian Casualties (Russia): Kursk Oblast: 3 KIA, 3 WIA from Ukrainian FPV drone attacks. Bryansk Oblast: 1 KIA, 1 WIA from Ukrainian FPV drone attacks.
• Infrastructure Damage: Significant damage to residential buildings, commercial properties (Kharkiv market), industrial sites (Zaporizhzhia Design Bureau), and critical infrastructure (Sloviansk power) in Ukraine. Damage to ambulance reported in occupied Oleshky.
• Prisoners of War: Large-scale exchange (205 returned Ukrainian personnel). Ongoing concerns regarding treatment and release of POWs, particularly Mariupol defenders. Alleged execution of 3 Ukrainian POWs near Novopil under investigation.
• Displacement: Evacuations ongoing in Sumy and Kursk border areas.

D. Capabilities & Logistics:

• Russia: First claimed combat use of North Korean M1991 240mm MLRS. Continued heavy use of drones (Shahed, Lancet, FPV, recon), KABs, ballistic missiles (Iskander). Introducing new "For Assault" qualification badge. High reported equipment losses countered by ongoing production/modernization (T-72B3M, T-90M). Continued reliance on volunteer fundraising for basic needs (thermal ponchos).
• Ukraine: Demonstrating effective deep strike drone capability against industrial/military targets. Showcasing innovative drone use (reported fiber-optic drone, potential naval drone AA). High AD interception rates against drones but facing saturation attacks. SBU counter-intelligence success. Receiving US-produced Archer FPV drones (6,000 planned). Legislative efforts to prepare civilian population for resistance. Continued development of military administrative tools ("Army+" app). Improving veteran rehabilitation infrastructure.

E. Information Operations & Diplomacy:

• IO: Intense focus on May 9th Victory Day narratives by Russia, linking history to the current conflict, showcasing international support (leader visits), and military prowess (parade prep, new awards). Claims of Ukrainian aggression/terrorism, particularly regarding border attacks and the claimed ceasefire violation. Ukraine highlights Russian civilian impact, defensive successes, high RU losses, and international solidarity. Both sides utilize POW narratives and battlefield footage.
• Diplomacy: Significant escalation between India and Pakistan. Visits by leaders of Brazil, Mongolia, Venezuela, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Cuba to Moscow for May 9th. Statements by US envoy Kellogg on ceasefire obstacles (blaming Putin). China reaffirms support for Russia on core interests. European divisions highlighted (Slovak PM stance on RU gas, flight restrictions for Serbian/Slovak leaders). Potential establishment of a special tribunal for Russian leadership discussed for May 9th in Lviv.

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IX. Assessment & Outlook

The past 24 hours underscore the high-intensity nature of the conflict, marked by large-scale Russian aerial assaults countered by significant Ukrainian deep strikes and highly contested ground battles.

• Russian Strategy: Russia continues its strategy of attrition through massed ground assaults on key eastern axes and terror tactics via widespread aerial bombardment targeting civilian infrastructure and population centers, resulting in tragic casualties in Kyiv and elsewhere. The claimed ceasefire appears primarily performative, contradicted by ongoing offensive actions and likely intended for information effect. The overt threat against Kyiv linked to May 9th is a concerning escalation in rhetoric.
• Ukrainian Strategy: Ukraine maintains a robust defense on the eastern front, absorbing intense pressure while inflicting significant casualties. The successful deep strikes against Russian industrial and military targets demonstrate improving long-range capabilities and a strategy to degrade Russia's war potential. The sustained Kursk border operation, despite losses and risks, likely serves to fix Russian forces and disrupt logistics, although its tactical objectives remain unclear and potentially costly.
• Key Areas: The Pokrovsk axis remains critical, with Russian forces attempting to exploit tactical gains. The Kursk border region is a significant flashpoint requiring close monitoring for potential escalation or shifts in operational focus. Kyiv remains a primary target for Russian psychological and strategic attacks.
• Capabilities: The introduction of North Korean MLRS by Russia and the development of US FPV drones for Ukraine represent notable shifts in available weaponry. Drone warfare (both strike and counter-drone) remains paramount for both sides. The alleged Ukrainian naval drone anti-air capability, if consistently demonstrable, could significantly alter the Black Sea dynamic.
• Outlook: Intense fighting is expected to continue, particularly in the East and potentially escalating in the Kursk border region. Russian aerial attacks are likely to remain a persistent threat. Ukrainian deep strikes will likely continue, prompting further Russian defensive adjustments and potential retaliatory actions. The May 9th period is highly sensitive and could see heightened military activity and information operations from both sides. The India-Pakistan escalation adds another layer of global tension.

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(End Summary)# Daily Intelligence Summary: Ukraine Theater

DATE: May 7, 2025 REPORTING PERIOD: May 6, 15:00 UTC – May 7, 13:00 UTC (Approximate) CLASSIFICATION: CONFIDENTIAL // UKRAINE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE

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I. Executive Overview

The reporting period was dominated by large-scale Russian aerial attacks targeting Kyiv and other Ukrainian regions, met by significant Ukrainian long-range drone strikes deep into Russian territory. Ground combat remains exceptionally intense, particularly on the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka axes in Donetsk Oblast, and along the Kursk-Sumy border, where Ukrainian cross-border operations continue amidst conflicting reports. A major prisoner exchange was successfully conducted. The upcoming May 9th Victory Day heavily influences Russian information operations and security postures. The India-Pakistan border conflict has significantly escalated, drawing international attention.

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II. Key Events & Developments

A. Major Russian Aerial Assault (Overnight May 6-7)

• Scale & Tactics: Ukraine reported Russia launched 4 ballistic missiles and 142 drones (including Shaheds and simulators) targeting multiple oblasts. Attacks occurred in waves, utilizing mixed assets likely to saturate air defenses.
• Impact on Kyiv:
  • Casualties: 2 civilians confirmed KIA (mother and son), 7 WIA (including 4 children) due to drone debris/strikes in Shevchenkivskyi and Sviatoshynskyi districts.
  • Damage: Significant damage to multi-story residential buildings (fires, partial destruction), non-residential infrastructure.
  • AD Response: 1 ballistic missile intercepted over Kyiv (debris caused 1 injury); 11 strike UAVs downed near Kyiv.
• Impact on Other Regions:
  • Sumy: Ballistic missile strike on suburbs caused 3 KIA, 8 WIA (incl. child). Infrastructure object destroyed in Konotop by combined drone/missile attack.
  • Zaporizhzhia: Previous attack resulted in 4 WIA. Confirmed strike on Ivchenko-Progress Design Bureau (engine manufacturer). Rapid power restoration after energy infrastructure hit.
  • Kharkiv: 4 WIA from previous night's drone attack; significant damage to Barabashovo market. Claimed Russian drone strike on railway hub.
  • Odesa Raion: 1 KIA, 1 WIA from drone strike (previous reporting).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: 8 WIA from KAB strike in Synelnykove district. Nikopol district targeted by artillery/drones.
  • Sloviansk: Power outages reported following night strikes.

B. Ukrainian Deep Strikes & Border Operations

• Deep Strikes into Russia:
  • Targets: Confirmed/reported strikes on industrial facilities (Saransk: "Optical Fiber Systems", "Saranskkabel"; Tula: "Splav" MLRS plant; Krasnoarmiysk, Moscow Oblast: "NPO Bazalt" aviation bomb plant) and military airfields (Kubinka, Moscow Oblast; Shaikovka, Kaluga Oblast). Fires confirmed via satellite imagery at airfields.
  • Impact: Widespread temporary airport closures/restrictions (Moscow hubs, Kaluga, Tambov, Yaroslavl, Nizhny Novgorod, Nizhnekamsk) causing significant flight cancellations/delays. Disruptions to mobile internet and other services (banking, taxi) in Moscow, partially attributed by Russia to counter-drone measures.
  • Russian AD Claims: Russia claims high interception rates (e.g., 105 UAVs over 11 regions May 5-6; 140+ targets incl. cruise missile over Bryansk May 6-7; UAV shot down over Noginsk, Moscow region). Ka-52 helicopters reportedly engaged drones near Moscow.
• Kursk Border Operation:
  • Activity: Intense fighting continues near Tetkino and Novy Put'. Ukrainian forces using armored vehicles (IMR, M-113, Bradley, Kozak, tank) attempting breaches.
  • Russian Claims: Repulsion of attacks, destruction of Ukrainian equipment (IMR, M-113s, Bradley, Kozak, T-64BV tank), capture of tank crew POWs, consolidation of positions within Tetkino. Civilian casualties inflicted by Ukrainian FPV drones (3 KIA, 3 WIA).
  • Ukrainian Claims: Strategic success in diverting Russian forces.
  • Assessment: Situation remains highly contested and fluid, with conflicting reports but clear evidence of sustained Ukrainian offensive pressure and significant combat activity.

C. Ground Combat Operations (Eastern & Southern Fronts)

• Pokrovsk Axis: Remains highest intensity (78 assaults repelled May 6). Russia claims advances near Troitske. Ukraine claims regaining some tactical initiative. Intense fighting reported near Sribne (35th Marine Brigade repelling attacks).
• Novopavlivka Axis: High intensity (24 assaults repelled May 6). Russia claims advances near Zelenoye Pole and Novopil. Fighting near Bohodyr, Otradne, Vilne Pole. Reports of Ukrainian POW execution near Novopil under investigation.
• Lyman Axis: Significant Russian pressure (31 attacks repelled May 6).
• Kupyansk Axis: Fighting ongoing near Kyslivka (RU claims advances), Zahryzove, Petropavlivka. Ukrainian unit requests urgent drone support.
• Other Axes: Significant Russian assaults also reported on Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar), Toretsk, Orikhiv, and Huliaipole axes. Ukrainian forces report destroying Russian personnel and equipment, including using drones against Russian divers on the Donetsk front. Russia claims strikes on Ukrainian strongholds, command posts, and equipment (Akatsiya SAU, BMP-1) using artillery, drones, and MLRS (incl. claimed first use of North Korean M1991).

D. Humanitarian & Personnel Developments

• Prisoner Exchange: Successful exchange of 205 Ukrainian service members. Videos show emotional reunions. Concerns remain about treatment and release of other POWs, especially Mariupol defenders.
• Civilian Impact: Significant casualties and infrastructure damage in Ukraine from Russian strikes. Civilian casualties reported in Russian border regions from Ukrainian attacks. Alleged Ukrainian drone strike on ambulance in occupied Oleshky.
• Personnel: Ukraine reports high daily Russian losses (+1430 May 6). SBU detains alleged FSB agent in Sumy. Ukraine integrating convicted individuals into armed forces. Russia appoints alleged war criminal Yuri Abaev to ministerial position. Russia reportedly sending returned POWs back to combat. Fundraising for military equipment continues on both sides. Ukraine investing in veteran rehabilitation.

E. Information Operations & Diplomacy

• May 9th Focus: Russia intensifies Victory Day narratives, linking history to the current conflict, showcasing international attendees (Presidents of Brazil, Mongolia, Venezuela, Cuba, etc.), and military preparations. Ukraine counters Russian propaganda.
• Ceasefire Narratives: Russia maintains its "ceasefire" proposal publically, while blaming Ukraine for continued hostilities and drone attacks. Ukraine rejects it as disingenuous ("smoke break"). US envoy Kellogg reportedly blames Putin for lack of progress.
• Geopolitics: Escalating India-Pakistan conflict with high casualties and diplomatic fallout (Modi cancels European trip). China-Russia alignment reaffirmed ahead of Xi's Moscow visit. European divisions on Russia policy persist (Slovakia vs. Baltic states/Poland airspace denial). Potential for Special Tribunal against Russian leadership discussed.

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III. Assessment & Outlook

The battlefield remains highly active, with Russia pressing offensives in the East, particularly Pokrovsk, while facing determined Ukrainian resistance and significant Ukrainian cross-border pressure in Kursk Oblast. The claimed first use of North Korean MLRS by Russia could enhance their long-range artillery capabilities.

Ukraine's ability to conduct large-scale, coordinated deep strikes against Russian industrial and military infrastructure, including airfields near Moscow, demonstrates significant capability and forces Russia into a reactive defensive posture, causing tangible disruptions. The effectiveness of these strikes, despite Russian AD claims, suggests vulnerabilities persist.

The massive Russian aerial attacks, utilizing complex tactics with drones and missiles, continue to inflict tragic civilian casualties and damage, highlighting Ukraine's ongoing need for robust air defense systems. The Russian threat against Kyiv related to May 9th is a concerning rhetorical escalation.

The Kursk border operation remains a major focal point. Conflicting reports make definitive assessment difficult, but Ukrainian forces appear persistent in attempting breaches, likely aiming to fix Russian troops and disrupt logistics, despite incurring losses.

Information warfare will intensify leading up to and during May 9th. The prisoner exchange provides a positive note amidst the conflict's grim realities. The escalation between India and Pakistan is a significant external development demanding attention.

Outlook: Expect continued high-tempo operations on eastern axes and the Kursk border. Russian aerial attacks are likely to persist. Ukrainian deep strikes will probably continue, testing Russian defenses. May 9th remains a period of heightened risk for provocations or escalations. The operational impact of the reported North Korean MLRS deployment warrants monitoring.

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(End Summary)