1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (2-3 sentences)

Russian forces are intensifying their main effort to seize Chasiv Yar, employing heavy firepower and thermobaric weapons to degrade forward defensive positions. Concurrently, a new and significant Russian offensive push towards Ocheretyne, northwest of Avdiivka, threatens to unhinge Ukrainian defenses in that sector and may represent an attempt to exploit a perceived weakness or fix Ukrainian reserves. Both axes require immediate command attention and allocation of resources.

2. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Chasiv Yar Axis (Threat Level: SEVERE): Russia continues to commit significant combat power, including extensive use of FAB-500/1500 glide bombs and TOS-1A thermobaric multiple rocket launchers, to attrit Ukrainian strongpoints in the eastern districts of Chasiv Yar. The sustained logistical buildup observed in the Bakhmut rear area indicates a commitment to a high-intensity, attritional assault. (HIGH Confidence)
• Avdiivka-Pokrovsk Axis (Threat Level: HIGH/INCREASING): The recent mechanized assault and establishment of a foothold in Ocheretyne represents a significant tactical escalation. If exploited, this advance could bypass prepared defensive lines and threaten key supply routes. The speed of the initial push suggests it may have been spearheaded by more capable units held in reserve. (MEDIUM Confidence)
• Air & Missile Threat (Crimea - DEGRADED): The recent successful deep strike on Dzhankoi airfield has likely degraded Russian Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IADS) coverage over northern Crimea and the southern Kherson region. The confirmed destruction of S-400 components, an ammunition depot, and a command post will temporarily disrupt Russian air operations and defense coordination. (HIGH Confidence)

3. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Chasiv Yar Axis: Over the past 24 hours, Russian ground forces, likely elements of VDV (Airborne Forces) regiments, conducted continuous assaults on Ukrainian positions in the Kanal and Novyi micro-districts. While no significant ground has been ceded, Ukrainian forces are holding defensive lines under extreme and sustained pressure from artillery and air strikes.
• Avdiivka-Pokrovsk Axis: Russian forces executed a successful mechanized push along the railway line north of Avdiivka, bypassing some Ukrainian defensive positions to secure a foothold in southern Ocheretyne. This represents a penetration of the main defensive belt in this area and poses an immediate threat of being widened.
• Crimean Peninsula (Deep Strike Operations): Confirmed reports indicate a successful Ukrainian deep strike on Dzhankoi airfield. Initial Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) confirms multiple secondary explosions from an ammunition depot and fires at S-400 TELs (Transporter Erector Launchers) and a radar system. The status of a reported strike on a command post and parked aviation assets is pending further verification.

4. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Russian Intent at Ocheretyne: The primary intelligence gap is determining the strategic intent behind the Ocheretyne advance. It is unclear if this is a localized tactical gain, a feint designed to draw Ukrainian reserves from Chasiv Yar, or the opening of a new primary axis of attack.
• Russian Reserves for Chasiv Yar: The composition, strength, and commitment timeline of Russian operational reserves currently staged for the Chasiv Yar offensive remain unconfirmed. Identifying these formations is critical to predicting the potential for a larger-scale assault.
• Dzhankoi BDA: A comprehensive BDA for the Dzhankoi strike is required to confirm the full extent of damage to high-value assets (S-400 command post, specific number of launchers/radars) and to assess Russia's ability to reconstitute air defense coverage in the sector.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Next 24-48 hours)

• ECOA 1 (MOST LIKELY): Russian forces will continue relentless, localized assaults on Chasiv Yar, prioritizing firepower to create conditions for a renewed ground offensive. They will seek to fix Ukrainian defenders and attrit their combat effectiveness ahead of a larger push. (HIGH Confidence)
• ECOA 2 (MOST DANGEROUS): Russia will attempt to reinforce its success at Ocheretyne, committing second-echelon forces to widen the penetration and advance north-westward. This action would aim to unhinge the Ukrainian defensive line and force a tactical withdrawal from adjacent positions. (MEDIUM Confidence)
• ECOA 3 (LIKELY): In response to the Dzhankoi strike, Russian forces will likely attempt to disperse remaining high-value air assets in Crimea and may reposition IADS from other sectors to cover the resulting gap, potentially creating vulnerabilities elsewhere. (HIGH Confidence)

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

• Prioritize ISR: Immediately task all available ISR assets (UAV, SIGINT, IMINT) to the Ocheretyne sector to determine the scale, composition, and direction of Russian follow-on forces.
• Prepare Tactical Reserve: Designate and prepare a mobile tactical reserve to conduct a counter-attack against the Russian penetration at Ocheretyne. Pre-plan fire missions and counter-attack routes to enable rapid response.
• Resource Chasiv Yar Defense: Prioritize the allocation of artillery ammunition, FPV drones, and electronic warfare assets to units defending Chasiv Yar to disrupt and attrit Russian assault groups.
• Exploit Dzhankoi Strike: Expedite comprehensive BDA for the Dzhankoi strike to inform future deep-strike targeting and assess the window of opportunity for Ukrainian air and drone operations in the southern theater.