INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY: 081500Z JUN 25

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (TOP SECRET/SENSITIVE)

Ukrainian deep strikes have achieved significant strategic effects, degrading Russian long-range aviation (Tu-22M3), ballistic missile capabilities (3x Iskander-M launchers), and ammunition production (Azot chemical plant). (HIGH CONFIDENCE) In response, Russia has escalated its ground offensive on the Sumy axis, capturing Loknya, and is launching a major information operation to support a claimed—though unverified—breakthrough into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by the 90th Tank Division. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) A massive, multi-modal Russian retaliatory air and missile assault on Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure is IMMINENT.

2. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• AIR THREAT LEVEL: EXTREME

  • Capabilities: Russia retains the capability for large-scale, coordinated air/missile/UAV strikes. The recent use of 49 UAVs, Kh-59/69, and an Oniks anti-ship missile in a single wave demonstrates multi-platform saturation tactics. Russian forces continue to effectively employ KABs in support of ground offensives, expanding their use to Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
  • Immediate Risks: A major retaliatory strike package is IMMINENT (next 24-48 hours) in response to significant Ukrainian successes (Tu-22M3, Iskander launchers, Azot plant). This is the MOST LIKELY and MOST DANGEROUS short-term threat. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) There is an increased risk of strikes against Ukrainian chemical or industrial facilities in a tit-for-tat response. The diversion of 20,000 anti-Shahed missiles from a US aid package creates a critical, near-term vulnerability in Ukrainian air defense. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• GROUND THREAT LEVEL: HIGH (Escalating to EXTREME on Sumy/Donetsk Axes)

  • Capabilities: RGF are conducting simultaneous, high-intensity offensive operations on multiple axes, effectively integrating FPV/overhead drones, artillery, and armored assaults. They have demonstrated the capability to capture fortified Ukrainian positions (Zarya, Loknya).
  • Immediate Risks:
    • Sumy Axis: Confirmed Russian capture of Loknya and continued advances toward Sumy city represent a significant tactical threat. Russia is actively conducting combined arms operations to create a deep "buffer zone." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Donetsk Axis: Extremely high tempo of assaults (65 in Pokrovsk direction) continues to threaten a breakthrough. RGF claimed the capture of Zarya settlement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
    • Dnipropetrovsk Axis: Russia has launched a major information operation claiming its 90th Tank Division has entered Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. While unverified and refuted by the Ukrainian General Staff, this signals a clear and dangerous intent for a new offensive vector. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

• SABOTAGE / HYBRID / INFORMATION THREAT LEVEL: HIGH

  • Capabilities: Russia is executing a sophisticated, multi-platform information warfare campaign to demoralize Ukrainian forces and public, and to sow discord with Western partners. This includes fabricated POW/body exchange narratives, exploiting internal Western political divisions, and promoting false flag "atrocity" stories. Russian special forces ("Espanola") demonstrate a capability for maritime sabotage on offshore infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Immediate Risks: High risk of Russian IO amplifying any Ukrainian cross-border strike that causes civilian casualties (e.g., Nikolskoye, Belgorod Oblast) to justify a major escalation. Explicit threats to assassinate senior SBU officers represent a direct threat to Ukrainian C2. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Ukrainian Deep Strike & Cyber Campaign:

  • Confirmed (HIGH CONFIDENCE): SBU's "Operation Pavutina" drone strike on a Tu-22M3 strategic bomber at "Belaya" airfield (Irkutsk).
  • Confirmed (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Successful strike on a Russian logistics train (Southern direction), destroying 13 tanks and >100 other vehicles.
  • Confirmed (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Successful Ukrainian deep strike on the "Azot" chemical plant in Novomoskovsk, Tula Oblast, a key producer of explosives components (octogen/hexogen) for artillery shells. This is the second strike on the facility in two weeks.
  • Confirmed (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Destruction of three Iskander-M launchers in Bryansk Oblast on 05 JUN, confirmed by President Zelenskyy. Subsequent BDA indicates 8 RGF KIA and 5 WIA, including a division commander.
  • Confirmed (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Successful destruction of a Russian Buk-M3 SAM system by Ukrainian drone forces.
  • Confirmed (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Successful downing of a Russian Su-35 fighter over Kursk Oblast.
  • Confirmed (HIGH CONFIDENCE): HUR cyberattack has successfully disrupted Russian railway services.
  • Impact: These operations have forced Russia to begin constructing hardened aircraft shelters at 14 airbases, including in Crimea, and to disperse strategic assets. This campaign is imposing significant costs and degrading Russian strategic capabilities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Russian Retaliatory & Offensive Air Operations:

  • Kharkiv: Suffered continued, brutal KAB strikes targeting civilian infrastructure, including a recreational park, children's railway, and educational building. Confirmed civilian casualties have risen to 2 KIA, >40 WIA, including SES first responders. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Expanded AOR: Russia has expanded KAB and aviation munition strikes to Sumy Oblast, Northern Donetsk Oblast, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Mezheva community kindergarten), indicating an intent to stretch Ukrainian AD resources. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Mass UAV/Missile Strikes: Russia launched a combined wave of 49 Shahed-type UAVs, two Kh-59/69 missiles, and one Oniks anti-ship missile against Ukraine. Ukrainian AD successfully neutralized 40 UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• Ground Combat Operations:

  • Sumy Axis: DeepState has confirmed RGF have occupied the settlement of Loknya. Russia is conducting combined arms operations in the Sumy-Chernihiv border area to establish a "buffer zone." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Donetsk Axis: RGF maintain an extremely high tempo of ground assaults, particularly on the Pokrovsk (65 attacks repelled) and Southern Donetsk (25 attacks repelled) directions. RGF claimed the capture of Zarya (Konstantinovka direction). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kupyansk Axis: DeepState confirmed the capture of Kindrashivka by RGF. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Russian Drone Dominance: Russian FPV and overhead drones are effectively targeting and destroying Ukrainian armor (Krab SPG, BMP, Leopard 2), fortifications, and C2 nodes (comms antennas) across the front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Russian ROE Change: A video has confirmed Russian forces deliberately targeting their own captured soldier with artillery/KABs to prevent capture by Ukrainian forces. This represents a significant and ruthless change in Russian TTPs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Russian Intent in Dnipropetrovsk: The primary intelligence gap is the veracity, scale, and intent of the claimed Russian 90th Tank Division's advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This requires IMMEDIATE ISR focus.
• BDA on Azot Plant: Full BDA is CRITICAL to determine the long-term impact on Russian artillery shell production.
• Russian "Revenge Strike" Plan: The specific targets, timing, and scale of the anticipated major retaliatory strike package remain unknown.
• Ukrainian AD Munitions: Current inventory levels of key interceptor munitions following recent massed attacks and the confirmed diversion of 20,000 anti-drone missiles is a CRITICAL unknown.
• Verification of Russian Claims: Claims of destroying a Ukrainian P-18 radar in Sumy, the encirclement of forces in Radkovka, and targeting of senior officials in Kherson require verification.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russia will launch a massive, multi-modal air and missile assault on Ukrainian cities (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, Odesa, Dnipro) and critical energy/industrial infrastructure within the next 24 hours. This is a direct retaliation for the string of successful Ukrainian deep strikes. RGF will attempt to consolidate gains on the Sumy and Donetsk axes, exploiting any breakthroughs. The "body exchange" and "Ukrainian atrocities" disinformation campaigns will be heavily amplified to justify the strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Coordinated with the massive aerial assault, Russia will commit significant operational reserves to a strategic breakthrough on the Sumy or a newly opened Dnipropetrovsk front. The objective would be to shatter Ukrainian defensive lines, force a major reallocation of Ukrainian reserves from the Donbas, and achieve a significant operational-level victory. This would be enabled by prior and concurrent AD suppression strikes. (MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE)

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

• Air Defense & Force Protection:

  1. IMMEDIATE: Place all AD forces on HIGHEST alert. Anticipate a large-scale, multi-vector air and missile attack in the next 24-48 hours. Prioritize protection of C2 nodes, critical infrastructure (energy, industrial), and major urban centers.
  2. IMMEDIATE: Review and implement enhanced force protection protocols for all emergency services personnel (SES, medical) in anticipation of "double-tap" strikes.
  3. URGENT: Reinforce the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk axes with layered air defenses (SHORAD, EW, mobile fire groups) to counter intense KAB and drone activity supporting ground offensives.

• Ground Forces:

  1. URGENT: Allocate reserves to the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk axes to contain Russian advances and claimed penetrations. Expedite fortification construction.
  2. URGENT: Disseminate new TTPs for force protection against Russian FPV/overhead drone strikes on armor and personnel. This includes enhanced camouflage, dispersal, top-down armor protection, and revised movement protocols.
  3. ONGOING: Update POW handling and extraction procedures to account for the confirmed Russian ROE of targeting their own captured soldiers, prioritizing the safety of Ukrainian extraction teams.

• Intelligence & Special Operations:

  1. IMMEDIATE: Task all available ISR assets to determine Russian force composition, disposition, and intent on the Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy axes. Verify or refute the claimed presence of the 90th Tank Division near Orekhovo.
  2. URGENT: Task ISR assets for BDA on the "Azot" chemical plant to assess the long-term impact on Russian ammunition production.
  3. ONGOING: Sustain the deep strike campaign against high-value Russian military-industrial and logistical targets to maintain pressure, disrupt their war machine, and force resource allocation to internal defense.

• Information Operations:

  1. IMMEDIATE: Launch a proactive international information campaign publicizing the video of Russian forces firing on their own captured soldier. Frame this as a clear war crime and evidence of extreme disregard for human life, contrasting it with Ukrainian adherence to the Geneva Conventions.
  2. IMMEDIATE: Aggressively refute the coordinated Russian "body exchange" and "atrocity" narratives with factual evidence, including the successful capture and treatment of 11 Russian POWs.
  3. ONGOING: Publicly message the strategic successes of the Ukrainian deep strike campaign (Azot plant, Iskander launchers, Su-35, Buk-M3) to maintain domestic and international morale, while framing any Russian retaliation as a response to legitimate military targeting of their war machine.