Everyone is talking about the confirmed trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on February 1, but if you look at the ground reality, Moscow isn't preparing for peace. They're engaging in "negotiation by fire."

The fact that GRU Chief Admiral Kostyukov is showing up to these high-level meetings tells you everything you need to know: the Kremlin views this diplomatic track as just another military operation.

The strategy definitely shifted gears today. We moved from general energy harassment to targeted attacks on rail lines in the East and what looks like a deliberate attempt to freeze the civilian population in Kyiv. It feels like Russia is betting on a humanitarian collapse to break Ukrainian resolve before the diplomats even make it to the table.

Here is what worries me about the operational picture:

In the Donbas, a precision strike hit the Kramatorsk railway hub. That is a critical choke point for logistics. There are also rumors of an 80,000-man reserve gathering for a push on Slovyansk. I need to stress that this number is unconfirmed—I haven't seen hard evidence yet—but given the buildup in the Serebryanske Forest, it’s a dangerous indicator we can't ignore.

Meanwhile, the situation in Kyiv is grim. Whether it was a strike or a grid failure, 737 buildings in the Troeishchyna district are without heat in freezing temperatures. What's unsettling is that Russian drones seem to be bypassing Kyiv to probe Zhytomyr and Poltava instead. It looks like they are trying to "blind" the air defense corridors before a larger missile wave comes through.

Down south in Huliaipole, the tech war just took a nasty turn. We have visual confirmation of fiber-optic guided FPV drones. Because they are hard-wired, they are immune to electronic warfare jamming. That neutralizes one of Ukraine's biggest defensive advantages, and that is a serious problem.

Looking at the satellite data, the warning lights are flashing. Activity at the 12th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment HQ has surged significantly. When Russian air defense units get this busy in the rear, it usually means they are hardening their positions because they are preparing to launch a major offensive operation.

A few other notes on hardware: Russian BM-35s are now deploying smoke screens to break drone locks, and we finally have visual proof of Mi-28 attack helicopters being delivered to Iran. Looks like the bill for those Iranian drones finally came due.

The takeaway:

Don't let the diplomatic noise distract you. The Abu Dhabi talks are happening, and the rail strikes are real. While I'm still skeptical about the size of the Slovyansk troop buildup, the broader signal is clear. With air defense corridors being probed and missile regiments spiking on satellite, the real "negotiating" is going to be done with ballistic missiles over the next 48 hours, long before anyone picks up a pen.