Daily Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine - February 8, 2025 (End of Day)

Prepared for: Ukrainian High Command

Prepared by: Military Intelligence AI Assistant

Date: February 8, 2025 (23:38 UTC)

---

I. Executive Summary

The military situation on February 8, 2025, remains highly dynamic and challenging for Ukrainian forces. While successes have been achieved in certain areas, the overall strategic picture reveals a deteriorating situation across multiple fronts.

Key Developments:

• Intense, Widespread Drone Warfare: The most prominent, and escalating, feature of today's operations is the massive and widespread drone activity. Both sides are employing drones extensively, but Russia has launched several large-scale, coordinated drone attacks targeting almost every region of Ukraine, including Kyiv. Ukraine has also demonstrated long-range drone strike capability, with confirmed attacks inside Russia (Bryansk, Rostov-on-Don).
• Continued Russian Advances (Confirmed): Russian forces are making incremental but confirmed gains, particularly in the Lyman (around Yampolivka and Terny), Kursk (though the situation remains complex), and, to a lesser extent, Kupyansk and Zaporizhzhia directions. Claims of Russian advances in Sribne require verification. The Kupyansk direction is particularly concerning, with Russian forces reportedly capturing Figolevka (verification urgent).
• Toretsk (Highly Contested): Conflicting reports regarding the status of Toretsk persist. Ukrainian forces claim to have repelled Russian attacks and to still control the city, but Russian sources claim its capture. The situation is likely one of ongoing, intense urban warfare, with neither side in full control.
• Pokrovsk: Confirmed artillery and drone warfare.
• Escalating Air Threat: Reports of guided bomb launches (Sumy, Kharkiv regions), missile threats (including ballistic), and widespread drone activity necessitate extreme vigilance and maximum air defense readiness.
• Geopolitical Uncertainty: The continued discussions of potential US policy shifts under a Trump administration, including potential negotiations with Putin, remain a significant factor. Zelenskyy's meeting with the NATO Military Committee chair highlights ongoing efforts to secure international support.
• Baltic Sea Cable Incident: Confirmed damage to a Rostelecom cable in the Baltic Sea raises serious concerns about potential sabotage and the vulnerability of critical infrastructure.
• Improved Artillery Shell Ratio: Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi claims an improved artillery shell ratio to almost 1:2.
• Moscow Fire: Escalation, casualties, and an investigation have been reported.

---

II. Situation by Region (Key Developments)

A. Kursk Region (Russia)

• Confirmed Ukrainian Operations: Ukrainian forces continue to operate inside Russian territory, with confirmed reports of engagements and the repelling of a major Russian infantry assault. The use of Bradley fighting vehicles and cluster munitions by Ukrainian forces is confirmed.
• Shift in Russian Tactics: Russian forces are confirmed to be shifting to infantry-heavy assaults, potentially due to equipment losses or a change in strategy.
• Conflicting Claims: Reports from both sides present conflicting narratives regarding the success and scale of operations, highlighting the ongoing information war.

B. Zaporizhzhia Region

• Confirmed Ukrainian Equipment Delivery: Significant delivery of equipment, including UAV complexes, signal amplifiers, and drone batteries, confirms ongoing efforts to reinforce Ukrainian capabilities in this sector.
• Artillery Shell Ratio Improvement: The claimed improvement in the artillery shell ratio in favor of Ukraine, if accurate, is a significant development that could alter the balance of power on this front.
• Confirmed Drone and Artillery Activity: Continued drone and artillery exchanges, with Ukrainian claims of downing a Russian drone using small arms fire.
• Continued Combat Operations: Confirmed fighting, including artillery strikes.

C. Kharkiv Region

• Kupyansk Direction: The claimed Russian capture of Figolevka, if confirmed, represents a significant advance and requires immediate reinforcement of Ukrainian defenses. Further Russian advances are reported, threatening Ukrainian defenses.
• Sumy Region: Confirmed drone attacks on civilian infrastructure highlight the vulnerability of this region.
• Confirmed Drone Activity: Ongoing Ukrainian drone activity, with confirmed strikes on Russian targets.
• Forced Conscription: Reported.

D. Donetsk Region

• Toretsk (Highly Contested): [See Executive Summary] Conflicting reports continue, with Ukrainian forces claiming to have downed a Russian Su-25 near Toretsk. The situation is extremely volatile.
• Lyman Direction: Confirmed Russian advances near Yampolivka and Terny necessitate close monitoring and potential reinforcement of Ukrainian defenses.
• Sribne: Claims of Russian advances in the Sribne residential area require investigation.
• Makeevka: Confirmed shelling of a residential area, with civilian casualties, highlights the ongoing threat to civilians.
• Pokrovsk Direction: Confirmed, continued fighting.

E. Other Regions

• Bryansk Region (Russia): Confirmed Ukrainian air defense activity.
• Moscow (Russia): The escalating fire at the former Moscow electrical factory, while likely unrelated to the conflict, highlights internal Russian challenges.
• Baltic Sea: The confirmed damage to the Rostelecom cable, potentially due to "external influence," raises concerns about sabotage.
• Kyiv: Smoke has been reported in the Saint Michael's Vydubychi Monastery.

III. Drone Warfare Analysis

• Dominant Feature: Drone warfare remains the most prominent and pervasive element of the conflict. Both sides are utilizing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, attack, and counter-drone operations.
• Ukrainian Successes: Ukrainian forces are claiming multiple successes in downing Russian drones and aircraft, including a confirmed Su-25.
• Russian Counter-Drone Measures: Confirmed use of drone detectors and successful drone strikes highlight Russian efforts to counter the Ukrainian drone threat.
• Technological Innovation: Both sides are adapting and innovating, with reports of new drone types and tactics.

IV. Information Warfare & Propaganda

• Intense and Ongoing: Both sides are actively engaged in information warfare, using propaganda to shape narratives, boost morale, and undermine the enemy. Conflicting claims are common, requiring careful verification.
• Key Themes:
  • Russian propaganda emphasizes Ukrainian losses, Russian successes, and the alleged mistreatment of Russian POWs.
  • Ukrainian propaganda highlights Russian losses, Ukrainian resilience, and Western support.
• Discrepancies: Ukrainian soldier's comments on his position (Kursk) is a good example of internal misinformation and a general lack of coordination.

V. Geopolitical Developments

• US-Ukraine Relations: Zelenskyy's engagement with NATO, seeking further support and highlighting the need for increased military aid, underscores the importance of continued Western assistance. Discussions surrounding a potential sale of Meteor missiles to Turkey are ongoing.
• Russian Actions: Russia's refusal to pay its UN contribution indicates a further deterioration in relations with international bodies.
• Hungarian Opposition: Hungary opposes continued financial assistance to Ukraine, highlighting divisions within Europe.
• Potential Escalation: Confirmed reports of increased attacks on Russian territory and Syrskyi's statement about increasing attacks are cause for concern.

VI. Critical Information Gaps

• Confirmation of Figolevka Capture (Kupyansk): [Extremely High Priority] Independent verification of the reported Russian capture is essential.
• Fate of Russian Mi-8 Helicopter (Toretsk): [Extremely High Priority] Conflicting reports regarding the fate of the helicopter and its crew must be resolved.
• Cause of Moscow Fire: While likely unrelated, the cause should be confirmed to rule out sabotage.
• Extent of Russian Advances (Lyman, Sribne): The reported Russian advances need to be verified and assessed.
• Pilot Status and Su-25 Downing Circumstances (Toretsk): Conflicting reports need to be thoroughly investigated.
• Full details of Trump-Putin Communication:
• Full details of Zelensky-NATO meeting:
• Confirmation of Sribne advances.
• Confirmation of friendly fire incidents.

---

VII. Recommendations (Prioritized)

1. EXTREMELY HIGH PRIORITY: Investigate Conflicting Claims on Su-25 Downing and Mi-8 Fate (Toretsk): [Urgent Action Required]

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (including signals intelligence, human intelligence, and potentially satellite imagery if available) to definitively determine the following:
     • Confirm the downing of the Su-25 near Toretsk.
     • Establish the pilot's status (captured, killed, rescued).
     • Determine the fate of the Mi-8 helicopter (damaged, destroyed, or successful evacuation).
     • Identify any Russian personnel involved in the incident and their fate.
   • This information is crucial for understanding the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense, Russian rescue capabilities, and the overall situation near Toretsk. It also has significant implications for information warfare.

2. EXTREMELY HIGH PRIORITY: Verify Figolevka Claim (Kupyansk) and Reinforce Defenses: [Urgent Action Required]

   • Immediately deploy reconnaissance assets (drones, satellite imagery, human intelligence) to confirm or deny the reported Russian capture of Figolevka.
   • If confirmed, immediately reassess and reinforce Ukrainian defenses in the Kupyansk area. Prepare for potential further Russian advances along this axis.
   • Prioritize deployment of anti-tank weaponry and air defense systems.

3. EXTREMELY HIGH PRIORITY: Prioritize Counter-Drone Measures (Zaporizhzhia, Kursk, and Other Frontline Areas): [Immediate Action Required]

   • Given the confirmed widespread use of drones by both sides, immediately enhance counter-drone capabilities across all frontline areas, with a particular focus on Zaporizhzhia and Kursk.
   • Deploy additional electronic warfare systems, drone detectors, and kinetic interceptors (e.g., small arms, MANPADS).
   • Train personnel on effective counter-drone tactics.
   • Share intelligence on Russian drone tactics and vulnerabilities.

4. EXTREMELY HIGH PRIORITY: Investigate Baltic Sea Cable Damage: [Immediate Action Required]

   • Collaborate with Baltic states and international partners to thoroughly investigate the cause and extent of the damage to the Rostelecom cable.
   • Determine if it was sabotage and, if so, identify the perpetrator.
   • Assess the implications for regional security and critical infrastructure vulnerability.

5. HIGH PRIORITY: Monitor and Respond to Russian Advances (Lyman Direction):

   • Given the confirmed Russian advances near Yampolivka and Terny, closely monitor the situation and assess the potential for further Russian gains.
   • Deploy reconnaissance assets to track Russian troop movements and identify potential attack axes.
   • Reinforce Ukrainian defensive positions and prepare for potential counterattacks.

6. HIGH PRIORITY: Exploit Ukrainian Air Defense and Drone Successes:

   • Continue to publicize Ukrainian successes in downing Russian aircraft and drones, highlighting the effectiveness of Ukrainian defenses and potentially deterring future Russian air operations.
   • Gather detailed information on the tactics and technologies used in successful engagements (e.g., the Su-25 downing) to refine training and operational procedures.

7. HIGH PRIORITY: Assess Impact of Improved Artillery Shell Ratio (Zaporizhzhia):

   • If the reported improvement in the artillery shell ratio for Ukraine is accurate, analyze its potential impact on the battlefield in the Zaporizhzhia region.
   • This could lead to a shift in tactics, allowing for more aggressive artillery operations and potentially enabling Ukrainian counteroffensives.

8. HIGH PRIORITY: Maintain Information Warfare Efforts:

   • Continue to counter Russian disinformation and propaganda, particularly claims of Russian successes and Ukrainian atrocities.
   • Highlight Ukrainian resilience, successes, and the human cost of Russian aggression.
   • Publicize all of the Russian losses, especially equipment, personnel, and vehicles.
   • Discredit any attempts by the opposing side to portray a friendly and/or humanitarian stance towards Ukrainian soldiers.
   • Exploit POW interviews and reports of internal Russian issues.

9. HIGH PRIORITY: Prepare for Increased Russian Military Activity: Zelensky has mentioned preparations for a new National Security and Defense Council (NSDC). Respond to the escalation of conflict, and prepare for a larger army.

10. MEDIUM PRIORITY: Investigate Sribne Situation: Verify the claims of Russian advances in the Sribne residential area and assess the implications.

11. MEDIUM PRIORITY: Verify Moscow Fire Cause: While likely unrelated, confirm to rule out sabotage.

12. MEDIUM PRIORITY: Address Pokrovsk Spending: Address the alleged misallocation of funds.

13. LOW PRIORITY: Prepare for Potential Impact of Genomic Registration: Monitor developments.

---

Ongoing Efforts:

• Maintain high alert across all fronts.
• Verify all claims and reports.
• Assess impacts of confirmed actions.
• Focus on key areas and reinforce defenses.
• Review and adapt strategies as needed.
• Monitor specific regions and potential escalation points.
• Explore all diplomatic avenues.
• Address internal issues and vulnerabilities.
• Prepare for potential escalation and conflicting claims.
• Re-evaluate situations based on new information.
• Prioritize air defense.
• Verify cooperation claims and assess impacts.
• Monitor specific situations and focus intelligence gathering.
• Evaluate effectiveness of specific technologies.
• Verify reports on arms exports.
• Maintain vigilance against all threats.
• Urgently verify conflicting casualty and engagement claims.
• Assess implications of confirmed engagements.
• Investigate specific incidents (e.g., TOS-1A usage, Makeevka shelling).
• Enhance air defense in threatened areas.
• Assess implications of attacks inside Russia.
• Evaluate drone warfare tactics and adapt.
• Assess and respond to infrastructure damage.
• Exploit enemy losses and weaknesses.
• Respond to new Russian advances.
• Counter Russian advances in specific areas.
• Address humanitarian crises.
• Address draft avoidance.
• Assess and respond to General Staff reports.
• Counter Russian advances near Kupyansk.
• Investigate reported assassination attempts.
• Verify claims of specific territorial control.
• Respond to Kharkiv explosion.
• Address humanitarian crises, including Nikopol attacks.
• Address the Kyiv smoke incident.
• Evaluate the effectiveness of newly obtained technologies.

---

End of Report