1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The operational tempo is intensifying on two critical axes. Russian forces are executing a determined, multi-pronged effort to encircle Avdiivka with shock troops and overwhelming air power (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Concurrently, enemy VDV units are conducting fierce counter-attacks to stall Ukrainian advances on the Bakhmut flanks, resulting in a high-attrition fight for tactical initiative.

2. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Airborne Threats (HIGH CONFIDENCE): A significant increase in sorties by Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft employing FAB-500 guided glide bombs is confirmed, particularly against fortified positions in the Avdiivka sector. This capability poses a severe risk to static defenses and C2 nodes. Ka-52 attack helicopters remain a persistent threat to our armored elements on the Southern Axis.
• UAS Threats (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The proliferation of Lancet loitering munitions and FPV (First Person View) drones continues to inflict significant losses on our artillery, air defense systems, and armored vehicles across all fronts. Enemy drone teams are demonstrating improved tactics, operating in hunter-killer pairs.
• Ground Force Composition (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Russia continues to deploy elite VDV (Airborne Forces) and Spetsnaz units as shock troops to spearhead critical assaults in Avdiivka and as counter-attacking reserves in Bakhmut. This indicates these sectors are the enemy's main operational priorities.
• Deep Strike Capability (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The recent Iskander-M ballistic missile strike on Kramatorsk underscores the persistent threat to C2, logistics, and troop concentrations in our operational rear. The likely targeting of a command meeting highlights an enemy focus on decapitation strikes.

3. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• AVDIIVKA AXIS (AO DONETSK):

  • (JUDGMENT) Enemy forces are attempting a tactical encirclement of Avdiivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • (FACT) The main thrusts are from the north near Krasnohorivka and from the south via Opytne and Vodyane. Heavy fighting is ongoing.
  • (FACT) Elements of the 47th Mechanized Brigade are effectively holding the northern pincer, while the 110th Mechanized Brigade is under extreme pressure within the city. Enemy forces are leveraging massed artillery and glide bombs to precede ground assaults led by VDV elements.

• BAKHMUT AXIS (AO BAKHMUT):

  • (FACT) Ukrainian forces, spearheaded by the 3rd Assault Brigade, have secured further tactical gains south of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka.
  • (JUDGMENT) The enemy is committing significant VDV reserves to prevent a collapse of their southern flank. This has devolved into a severe battle of attrition with high casualties reported on both sides as fierce counter-attacks contest every meter of ground. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• SOUTHERN AXIS (AO ZAPORIZHZHIA):

  • (FACT) Ukrainian offensive operations continue towards Verbove, east of the Robotyne salient. Progress remains incremental due to extensive, multi-layered minefields and well-prepared defensive positions manned by Russia's 58th Combined Arms Army.
  • (JUDGMENT) The fighting in this sector is primarily attritional. The enemy is focused on ceding ground slowly while inflicting maximum casualties on advancing Ukrainian forces, primarily through artillery, anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM), and Ka-52 helicopter strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

• DEEP BATTLE / REAR AREAS:

  • (FACT) A confirmed Iskander-M ballistic missile strike occurred in a central district of Kramatorsk, resulting in civilian casualties.
  • (JUDGMENT) The probable target was a temporary command post or a meeting of military personnel. This event highlights potential vulnerabilities in our operational security (OPSEC). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

4. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Enemy Reserves: What is the composition, strength, and disposition of operational reserves behind the Avdiivka front? Confirmation is needed to assess the enemy's ability to sustain the current offensive intensity.
• EW Effectiveness: The true effectiveness of Russian Electronic Warfare (EW) systems against our UAS platforms requires more granular data. Are our current countermeasures sufficient?
• Ammunition Expenditure: Accurate assessment of enemy artillery shell consumption rates versus their logistical supply capacity is needed to identify potential future vulnerabilities in their fire support.
• Kramatorsk Strike: What was the precise intelligence source that enabled the Kramatorsk strike? Identifying the vector (HUMINT, SIGINT, IMINT) is critical to mitigating future attacks.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• AVDIIVKA (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The enemy will continue concentric attacks on Avdiivka, likely intensifying the use of glide bombs to degrade fortified positions before committing further ground assaults. A push to physically cut the main supply route is expected.
• BAKHMUT (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Enemy VDV elements will continue to launch localized, aggressive counter-attacks near Klishchiivka and Andriivka to regain lost positions and fix Ukrainian forces.
• SOUTHERN AXIS (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): Expect continued defensive operations from the enemy, with an increase in Ka-52 and Lancet drone sorties to disrupt our offensive momentum. A large-scale enemy counter-offensive in this sector is unlikely in this timeframe.
• DEEP STRIKES (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): Further missile or drone strikes against C2 nodes, logistics hubs, and air defense systems in operational-deep areas (Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Pavlohrad) are likely.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

• Force Protection: Immediately order the dispersal of all command posts and enforce strict EMCON (Electromagnetic Control) and OPSEC protocols across all units in the operational rear to mitigate the deep strike threat.
• Counter-Air/UAS: Prioritize the deployment of mobile EW suites and SHORAD (Short-Range Air Defense) systems to forward units on the Southern and Bakhmut axes to counter the Lancet/FPV threat. Task ISR assets to actively hunt and target enemy drone operator teams.
• Fire Support: Allocate priority for counter-battery fire to the Bakhmut axis to suppress enemy artillery and relieve pressure on advancing friendly forces.
• Maneuver: On the Southern Axis, reinforce the need for small-unit combined arms tactics to breach minefields under fire, integrating engineering assets directly with assault infantry.

END OF SUMMARY