1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Russian forces are escalating operations on two separate, decisive axes. A new ground assault has commenced in the Sumy Oblast, assessed as a shaping operation to fix Ukrainian reserves, while a high-intensity push to seize the strategic Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar continues. The enemy's widespread use of FAB glide bombs and TOS-1A thermobaric systems presents an immediate and significant threat to Ukrainian forward defensive positions on both fronts.

2. THREAT ASSESSMENT

OVERALL THREAT LEVEL: HIGH

• Air/Fires Threat (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Systematic use of FAB-series glide bombs is being employed to suppress and destroy Ukrainian defenses ahead of ground assaults, particularly along the Sumy axis. The confirmed deployment of TOS-1A thermobaric MRLs in the Chasiv Yar sector indicates enemy intent to methodically reduce fortified positions and inflict maximum casualties.
• Ground Threat - New Axis (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): The opening of a new assault axis towards Sumy represents a significant attempt to stretch Ukrainian forces thin and divert operational reserves from the Donbas. While the initial scale is limited, it has the potential to develop into a major offensive.
• Ground Threat - Attrition (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Elite Russian VDV (Airborne Forces) units are spearheading the assault in Chasiv Yar. Their employment of small, well-equipped assault groups presents a high risk of infiltration and a tactical breakthrough in the urban environment, leading to high-attrition, close-quarters combat.

3. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Sumy Axis (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Russian forces initiated company-sized probing attacks near the settlement of Ryzhivka. These actions are supported by intense artillery and FAB strikes along the border. This activity is assessed (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) as a shaping operation to identify defensive weaknesses and fix Ukrainian units in place prior to a larger offensive.
• Chasiv Yar Axis (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Intense combat is ongoing for control of the Kanal microdistrict. Russian VDV elements are conducting continuous platoon-sized assaults to secure a foothold west of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal. Ukrainian 92nd Assault Brigade elements are maintaining their defensive lines but are under extreme pressure. Simultaneously, enemy units are attempting to bypass Ukrainian strongpoints from the south to threaten the main defensive line in Chasiv Yar.
• Kharkiv Axis (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The Kharkiv front remains a secondary effort, assessed as a fixing operation designed to draw Ukrainian reserves away from the Donbas. Russian forces are consolidating limited gains near Vovchansk and Lyptsi without committing to a deep, operational-level breakthrough.

4. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Primary Enemy Intent (Sumy): The strategic objective of the Ryzhivka operation remains unclear. Requires confirmation whether it is a feint, a limited shaping operation, or the precursor to a main assault. (CRITICAL)
• Enemy Order of Battle (Sumy): The composition, strength, and readiness levels of the Russian force grouping opposite Sumy Oblast are not fully confirmed. Identifying specific units is an urgent priority.
• Reserve Availability (Chasiv Yar): The disposition and commitment threshold of Russian operational reserves for the Chasiv Yar battle are unknown. Confirmation is needed to predict the enemy's ability to sustain the current tempo of operations.
• EW Effectiveness: Real-time assessment of Ukrainian EW system effectiveness against Russian Lancet and FPV drone variants in the high-density Chasiv Yar environment is limited.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will escalate probing attacks and air/artillery strikes along the Sumy border to force a premature commitment of Ukrainian reserves. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Concurrently, VDV units will continue their attempt to seize the Kanal microdistrict in Chasiv Yar, likely increasing the use of TOS-1A systems to reduce strongpoints block-by-block. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The enemy launches a larger-than-expected mechanized assault towards Sumy city, exploiting a perceived weakness in the defensive line. (LOW CONFIDENCE, HIGH IMPACT) This would be synchronized with a commitment of operational reserves to achieve a decisive breakthrough in Chasiv Yar. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. ISR Priority: Task all available ISR assets (UAV, SIGINT, SATINT) to determine the composition, disposition, and intent of the Russian force grouping opposite Sumy Oblast. Focus on identifying command posts, logistics hubs, and assembly areas.
2. FIRES: Prioritize immediate counter-battery targeting of identified TOS-1A systems and artillery threatening Chasiv Yar. Allocate additional FPV drone assets to interdict Russian assault groups crossing open ground and target their rear-area supply lines.
3. FORCE POSTURE (SUMY): Accelerate preparation of secondary and tertiary defensive lines along the Sumy axis. Earmark tactical reserves for rapid counter-attack but do not commit until the enemy's main effort is definitively identified.
4. MANEUVER (CHASIV YAR): Review and prepare reinforcement plans for the Chasiv Yar garrison. Be prepared to commit experienced tactical reserves to contain and counter-attack any Russian lodgment west of the canal to prevent a collapse of the defense in the Kanal microdistrict.

END OF SUMMARY