1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Russian forces are intensifying their offensive on Avdiivka, leveraging overwhelming air power and mechanized assaults to threaten tactical encirclement of defending units (HIGH CONFIDENCE). Concurrently, a significant increase in sophisticated Russian Electronic Warfare (EW) activity across the southern front is degrading Ukrainian Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) and precision-guided munitions effectiveness, posing a major threat to our operational capabilities (HIGH CONFIDENCE).

2. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Primary Threat: The primary threat is the potential for a tactical breakthrough and encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the Avdiivka salient. The enemy is combining massed armored assaults with heavy, continuous use of KAB-series glide bombs to suppress defensive positions, indicating this is their main operational effort.
• Emerging Threat: The deployment and effective use of advanced Russian EW systems (suspected Shipovnik-Aero and others) in the Zaporizhzhia sector represents a critical, theater-level threat. This capability is directly targeting Ukrainian asymmetric advantages by jamming UAV command links and GPS signals for precision munitions (e.g., HIMARS, Excalibur), leading to increased asset loss and reduced strike effectiveness (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• Overall Risk Level: HIGH. The immediate risk is the loss of key defensive positions in Avdiivka. The systemic risk is the erosion of our technological overmatch in ISR and precision fires due to enemy EW adaptation.

3. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• AVDIIVKA AXIS (MAIN EFFORT):

  • (CONFIRMED) Russian forces are conducting continuous, coordinated mechanized assaults primarily from the north, aiming to close the pincer and sever Ukrainian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs).
  • (CONFIRMED) Enemy tactical aviation is employing KAB-500 glide bombs at a high tempo, targeting fortified positions and rear-area logistical nodes. Our primary supply routes are now under intermittent direct fire threat.
  • (ANALYTICAL JUDGEMENT) While Ukrainian units are inflicting significant losses on enemy armor, the sustained pressure and aerial bombardment are attriting our defensive capabilities. The situation is precarious. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

• BAKHMUT AXIS (SUPPORTING EFFORT):

  • (CONFIRMED) Positional fighting continues, with Russian forces conducting localized counter-attacks to regain previously lost ground near Klishchiivka and Andriivka. These efforts appear designed to fix Ukrainian forces in place and have achieved limited success.

• ZAPORIZHZHIA AXIS (DEFENSIVE POSTURE):

  • (CONFIRMED) Russian forces are focused on strengthening defensive lines near Robotyne, improving fortifications and minefields.
  • (CONFIRMED) Enemy activity is limited to localized probing attacks, likely intended to identify defensive weaknesses and force Ukrainian UAVs into EW engagement zones. The most intense EW activity is reported in this sector.

4. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• Enemy Intentions: What are Russian strategic intentions and follow-on objectives should they succeed in capturing Avdiivka? (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE on current assessments).
• EW Capabilities: What are the precise locations, operational range, and technical specifications of newly deployed Russian EW systems, particularly the Shipovnik-Aero? ISR collection is urgently required. (LOW CONFIDENCE on current data).
• Order of Battle (ORBAT): Confirmation of the combat readiness and reserve availability for Russian units committed to the Avdiivka assault is needed to assess their capacity for sustained offensive operations.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY COURSE OF ACTION (MLCOA): Russian forces will continue to press the Avdiivka offensive as their main effort, increasing the tempo of both ground assaults and air strikes to achieve a breakthrough before Ukrainian reinforcements can be fully integrated. Goal remains the complete operational encirclement of the city. (HIGH CONFIDENCE).
• MOST DANGEROUS COURSE OF ACTION (MDCOA): The enemy could attempt a large-scale, coordinated assault on Avdiivka from multiple axes simultaneously, combined with a surge in EW activity to blind our ISR, to overwhelm defenses in a single, decisive push.
• SOUTHERN FRONT: Expect continued Russian probing attacks in the Zaporizhzhia sector, designed to attrite Ukrainian forces and equipment, particularly UAVs, by leveraging their local EW superiority. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE).

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. PRIORITIZE AVDIIKA: Immediately allocate additional short-range air defense (SHORAD) systems and MANPADS to the Avdiivka sector to counter the KAB glide bomb threat. Reinforce front-line units with additional ATGM teams and FPV drone units to continue attriting Russian armored columns.
2. SECURE LOGISTICS: Urgently assess the viability of all GLOCs into Avdiivka and prepare contingency and alternate supply plans, including potential for night-time resupply to mitigate visual targeting.
3. COUNTER THE EW THREAT: Task ISR assets (SIGINT, HUMINT, IMINT) with the highest priority to identify and provide targetable locations of Russian EW systems. Upon identification, execute dynamic targeting with long-range precision fires.
4. ADAPT TACTICS: Disseminate updated Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTPs) to all UAV operators for operating in a GPS-denied/jammed environment, emphasizing reliance on inertial/terrain-based navigation and pre-planned mission profiles.