(CONFIDENTIAL // FOR UKRAINIAN HIGH COMMAND USE ONLY)

Military Intelligence Daily Summary: Ukrainian Perspective

Date: April 2, 2025 Time: 16:45 UTC Reporting Period: April 1, 17:00 UTC - April 2, 16:45 UTC

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I. Executive Summary

The operational environment remains defined by HIGH intensity combat, particularly concentrated on the Pokrovsk axis. Russian forces maintain significant offensive pressure along the Lyman, Siversk, Toretsk, Kupyansk, and Novopavlivsk directions, while continuing operations within the Kursk/Belgorod border regions. Russian forces claim territorial gains, notably near Oleksandropol (Toretsk direction) and Vesele (Novopavlivsk direction), although the status of some claimed captures (e.g., Lobkove) remains contested.

Russia's extensive strike campaign persists, utilizing KABs, Shahed/Geran drones, artillery, and missiles. A devastating ballistic missile strike on Kryvyi Rih resulted in 4 civilian fatalities and 14 wounded, hitting civilian infrastructure. Kharkiv endured another significant drone attack, injuring 5 civilians (stress reaction) and damaging residential/industrial property. Ukrainian Air Defence continues to intercept a portion of incoming threats (41 Shahed/other UAVs downed overnight).

Ukrainian forces maintain robust defensive lines, repelling numerous assaults daily. A key tactical success noted is the apparent halting of the Russian offensive on the southern flank of the Pokrovsk direction, attributed to highly effective Ukrainian drone interdiction of Russian logistics. Ukrainian cross-border operations continue in Kursk/Belgorod, disrupting Russian efforts. Successful Ukrainian strikes against high-value targets, including Russian helicopters in Belgorod Oblast and radar systems in occupied Crimea, were confirmed.

Logistical challenges, particularly the impact of Ukrainian drones on resupply, appear to be significantly affecting Russian operations on some axes (e.g., Pokrovsk). Reports of Russian morale issues continue to surface. Ukraine focuses on bolstering veteran support and streamlining administrative processes. International support remains crucial, with significant NATO aid commitments noted for Q1 2025.

Key Priorities for Ukrainian Forces:

1. Maintain Defensive Integrity: Continue repelling Russian assaults, particularly on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Lyman, and Chasiv Yar axes. Reinforce positions against potential Russian breakthroughs.
2. Sustain Air Defense Effectiveness: Prioritize countering KABs, ballistic missiles, and drones targeting civilian populations and critical infrastructure.
3. Exploit Russian Vulnerabilities: Continue targeting Russian logistics, command posts, and high-value assets, leveraging drone superiority where achieved (e.g., Pokrovsk southern flank).
4. Disrupt Border Operations: Maintain pressure in Kursk/Belgorod regions to fix Russian forces and degrade their offensive potential towards Sumy/Kharkiv.
5. Enhance EW Capabilities: Address the critical need for EW-resistant drones and systems to counter Russian electronic warfare efforts.

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II. Air, Missile & Drone Activity

• Active Threats (as of 16:45 UTC):
  • Russian reconnaissance UAV activity persists in Kharkiv Oblast; Ukrainian Air Defence engaged.
  • Threat of air strikes from Russian tactical aviation previously active in the south-east.
  • Previous KAB launches reported towards Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Sumy Oblasts.
• Recent Russian Strikes on Ukraine:
  • Kryvyi Rih (Ballistic Missile Strike - UPDATE): Confirmed impact on civilian infrastructure. Casualties: 4 killed, 14 wounded (incl. severe 8yo boy, 11 hospitalized). Rescue operations concluded. Extensive damage to residential buildings, infrastructure. War crimes investigation initiated. (RU CLAIM: Targeted VPK enterprise).
  • Kharkiv (Drone Strikes - UPDATE): FPV-type drone struck a 16-story residential building (~13:11 UTC); 5 civilians injured (incl. hospitalized 10yo boy). Overnight (Apr 1-2), city hit by at least 14 drones impacting industrial zone, damaging homes; 8 treated for stress reaction. (RU CLAIM: Targeted 92nd Mech Bde facilities/Promsvyaz plant).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol/Synelnykove): Russian shelling, drones, KABs caused 3 civilian injuries and damaged property overnight.
  • Sumy Oblast: Intense KAB (~50 Apr 1-2) and artillery strikes ongoing. FPV hit substation earlier.
  • Other RU Claims (Overnight/Recent): Strikes claimed on Radisne (Odesa), Kramatorsk, Zolotyi Kolodiz, Sloviansk (Donetsk), Druzhkivka (UAV C2), Ivot (Sumy - Iskander), Kherson (FAB strike), Svatove (gas station), Petrivka (civilian car).
• Ukrainian Air Defence Performance (Overnight Apr 1-2):
  • 41 Shahed/other UAVs confirmed destroyed out of 74 launched (UA AF). SDF South downed 25 in their zone. 160th AD Bde mobile groups active.
• Recent Ukrainian Strikes (Claimed & Confirmed):
  • Belgorod Oblast (RU): Confirmed Ukrainian strike (HIMARS alleged) damaged Russian helicopters (Mi-8, Mi-28) at airfield. FPV drone attacks reported injuring 3 civilians via vehicle strikes.
  • Occupied Crimea: GUR "Prymary" drone strikes reported successful against multiple RU radar systems (Imbir, Podlyot-K1, Nebo-SVU, MR-10M1E) and a transport-tug boat near Cape Tarkhankut. (RU sources deny significant damage).
  • Deep Rear AD Destruction (UA CLAIM): UA 14th Separate UAV Regiment claims destruction of 2 Russian Buk SAMs and 1 Tor SAM system deep in the Russian rear (video provided).
• Ongoing Drone Activity: Both sides continue extensive FPV/recon drone use across the front for strike, reconnaissance, and mining operations.

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III. Ground Combat Operations by Direction (Highlights)

• Pokrovsk Direction (Highest Intensity):
  • UGS reported 64 RU attacks repelled (Apr 1). Fighting continues near multiple settlements.
  • Key Development: Ukrainian drone operations reportedly halted the Russian southern flank offensive by severely disrupting logistics (ammo, water shortages reported) and forcing infantry rotations on foot near Zelene, Dachenske, Lysivka, Uspenivka, Shevchenko. Uspenivka remains contested.
  • Ukrainian drone units (59th Bde) continue inflicting losses. Fundraising for 155th Brigade EW/vehicle repairs highlights needs.
• Toretsk Direction (High Intensity):
  • UGS reported 21 RU attacks (Apr 2, 13:00 UTC), 6 ongoing. Attacks focus near Toretsk, Ozarianivka, Dyliivka, Krymske, Leonidivka.
  • RU CLAIM: Persists with claim of capturing Oleksandropol (Rozivka). Claimed drone strikes on UA positions in Rozivka.
• Kursk/Belgorod Border Zones (High Intensity):
  • UGS reported 13 RU attacks repelled, 4 ongoing in Kursk zone (Apr 2, 16:00 UTC). RU MoD CLAIM: Significant UA losses (>150 Kursk, >95 Belgorod axis).
  • RU Assessment: Fighting aims to slow potential UA advances into Sumy; RU claims breaking UA's first defensive line in Kursk. RU source compares UA actions near Popovka/Demidovka to Krynky (costly defense).
  • RU forces claim repelling UA attacks near Basovka (Sumy border), destroying equipment.
  • Head of Korenevsky District (Kursk Oblast) resigned, reportedly due to failures during Aug 2024 UA incursion.
• Lyman Direction (High Intensity):
  • UGS reported 15 RU attacks (Apr 2, 13:00 UTC), 7 ongoing near Novoiehorivka, Novoliubivka, Kolodiazi, Yampilivka, Dibrova.
  • Strategic Assessment (ISW): Potential RU preparations for large-scale offensive towards Borova (Kharkiv Obl.) and Lyman city.
• Novopavlivsk Direction (Significant Activity):
  • UGS reported 7 RU attempts stopped (Apr 2, 13:00 UTC).
  • NEW RU CLAIM (Capture): GpV "Vostok" (5th Tank Bde / 36 CAA) claims full control of Vesele. Requires verification.
  • RU CLAIM (Advance): Forces claim clearing territory south of Rozlyv.
  • Ukrainian drone strikes (Sternenko) reported destroying RU vehicle/personnel near Kurakhove.
• Kramatorsk Direction (Chasiv Yar):
  • UGS reported 6 RU attacks repelled near Chasiv Yar and towards other settlements (Apr 2, 13:00 UTC).
  • RU CLAIM (Chasiv Yar): Video purports RU assault using 4 AFVs into UA positions. RU sources claim significant advances within Chasiv Yar microdistricts. Requires verification.
• Orikhiv Direction (Zaporizhzhia):
  • UGS reported 10 RU attacks (Apr 2, 13:00 UTC), fighting ongoing near Stepove, Mali Shcherbaky, Kamyanske.
  • RU CLAIM (Advances/Contested Status): Significant advances claimed near Lobkove, Kamyanske, Stepove, Shcherbaky. However, RU sources acknowledge Lobkove remains contested, partially walking back earlier claims of full capture.
• Huliaipole Direction: UGS reported 5 RU attacks repelled (Apr 2, 13:00 UTC).
• Siversk Direction: UGS reported 5 RU assaults repelled (Apr 2, 13:00 UTC).
• Kupyansk Direction: UGS reported 4 RU attempts (Apr 2, 13:00 UTC), 1 ongoing.
• Prydniprovsky Direction (Kherson): UGS reported 2 unsuccessful RU assaults (Apr 2, 13:00 UTC). RU claims advances near islands.

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IV. Logistics, Personnel & Other Notes

• Ukraine:
  • Capabilities/Logistics: NATO aid pledge (>€20B Q1 2025), UK fund proposal, World Bank grant ($432M for transport infrastructure). Fundraising for 155th Bde EW/vehicles highlights ongoing needs. First public firing demo of towed 155mm 2S22 "Bohdana-BG" previously.
  • Personnel/Morale: President Zelenskyy visited Dnipro, focusing on veteran support. "Army+" survey hits 60k participants. Coordination HQ met with 129th TDF Bde POW/MIA families. Over 8,000 former convicts recruited into AFU reported. Formation of all-female UAV unit "Harpii".
  • Tactics: High effectiveness of integrated drone operations noted. Claimed destruction of 3 RU SAM systems deep in rear (14th Sep UAV Reg). Recruitment for SBU FPV pilots.
  • Counter-Corruption: NABU/SAP investigating alleged MoD food procurement corruption scheme. SBU secured sentence for pro-RU blogger.
• Russia:
  • Capabilities/Losses: CONFIRMED LOSS of Tu-22M3 strategic bomber (Irkutsk Oblast), 1 pilot KIA. RU MoD claims technical failure.
  • Logistics: Challenges confirmed on Pokrovsk southern flank due to UA drone interdiction. Funds allocated for Kursk residents.
  • Personnel/Training: Reports of convict recruitment persist. Reports of raids targeting potential conscripts in Moscow gyms. Focus on youth military training in schools (Lipetsk). Emphasis on ideological motivation for troops. Report of mobilized soldier buried ~2 years after death.
  • Morale Issues: Continued evidence/reports (e.g., 439th MRP video appeal).
• International & Political:
  • US-Russia Dialogue: High-level meeting (Witkoff-Dmitriev) reported at White House (Apr 2).
  • Sanctions: US imposes new sanctions linked to RU grain theft/Yemen supply. UK proposes joint European defence fund.
  • Poland: Reiteration of no troop deployment to Ukraine.
  • Russia/Belarus/Abkhazia: Emphasis on alliance ties and cooperation.

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V. Information Operations & Narratives

• Russia: Persists with unsubstantiated claims of Ukrainian atrocities (Kursk). Continues narrative blaming Ukraine for violating "energy truce". Promotes claimed battlefield successes and high Ukrainian losses. Disseminates POW interviews potentially aimed at undermining Ukrainian morale or justifying RU actions. Highlights internal patriotic events and security measures. Frames international support/meetings as ineffective or escalatory.
• Ukraine: Highlights Russian civilian targeting (Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv) and war crimes investigations. Emphasizes defensive successes, drone effectiveness, and logistical disruption of Russian forces. Publicizes Russian morale issues via soldier testimonies/appeals. Promotes international support and diplomatic efforts. Counters Russian disinformation narratives. Warns public about intensified Russian IO campaigns aimed at undermining government legitimacy.

(End Summary)