(CONFIDENTIAL // UKRAINE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE // DAILY SUMMARY)

DATE: May 3, 2025 REPORTING PERIOD: May 2, 15:00 UTC – May 3, 10:00 UTC (Approximate)

Prepared For: High Command Prepared By: Military Intelligence AI Assistant (UKR/MI-AIA)

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I. Executive Summary

The operational environment remains highly dynamic, characterized by intense ground combat, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis, widespread Russian aerial assaults impacting civilian areas, and confirmed Ukrainian deep strike capabilities utilizing unmanned systems. Diplomatic exchanges remain complex, with escalating rhetoric surrounding the upcoming May 9th Victory Day. Information operations from both sides are pervasive.

Key developments include a massive combined Ukrainian unmanned attack on Crimea and Novorossiysk, resulting in confirmed civilian casualties and infrastructure damage within Russia, countered by significant Russian claims of interceptions. A highly significant tactical development is the confirmed Ukrainian downing of a Russian Su-30 aircraft over the Black Sea using a naval drone equipped with a surface-to-air missile. Russian aerial attacks continue to inflict severe humanitarian consequences, notably in Kharkiv (51 injured), with reports indicating the use of thermobaric warheads. Ground fighting remains fierce, with Russia claiming localized advances, particularly near Pokrovsk, while Ukraine reports repelling numerous assaults and inflicting significant losses. The US approved a substantial F-16 training and support package, signaling long-term commitment to enhancing Ukraine's air capabilities. Diplomatic tensions persist regarding potential ceasefires and mediation roles.

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II. Key Operational Developments

• Intense Ground Combat: Heavy fighting persists across multiple axes. The Pokrovsk direction remains the epicenter, with the Ukrainian General Staff reporting 83 combat engagements repelled yesterday. Significant activity also reported on the Novopavlivka (50 attempts), Lyman (27 attacks), and Kursk (20 attacks repelled) directions. Russian forces claim localized advances near Novooleksandrivka (Pokrovsk) and Bogatyr (Southern Donetsk). Ukraine reports reinforcing the Pokrovsk axis.
• Massive Ukrainian Combined Attack (Crimea/Novorossiysk): A large-scale overnight attack utilizing UAVs (>100 claimed by Russia), Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs, >3 dozen claimed involved in Novorossiysk attack, some reportedly armed with missiles/FPV launchers), and potentially missiles (Storm Shadow/Neptune claimed intercepted by Russia) targeted occupied Crimea and the Russian port city of Novorossiysk.
  • Impact in Russia: Confirmed damage to residential buildings and a grain terminal in Novorossiysk, resulting in 5 civilian injuries (incl. 2 children). Public transport was temporarily suspended. Damage to houses also confirmed in Anapa and Tselina (Rostov Oblast) from falling debris.
  • Su-30 Downed by Naval Drone: Ukrainian GUR officially confirmed the destruction of a Russian Su-30SM fighter jet near Novorossiysk on May 2nd using a Magura V5 naval drone equipped with an R-73 surface-to-air missile. This marks a novel and significant tactical success for Ukraine. Russian sources acknowledge the loss, stating pilots ejected and were rescued.
  • Russian Countermeasures: Russia claims extremely high interception rates (170 UAVs, 11 missiles, 14-23 USVs), though these figures require verification. Russian naval Spetsnaz engaged Ukrainian USVs off the Crimean coast.
• Russian Aerial Attacks & Humanitarian Impact:
  • Continued large-scale Shahed drone attacks across multiple Ukrainian oblasts overnight and into the morning. Ukraine reported downing 77 strike UAVs but noted a high volume launched.
  • Kharkiv: Civilian casualties from recent drone attacks rose to 51 injured, including children. Damage reported across multiple districts. Reports indicate the use of thermobaric warheads by Russia.
  • Zaporizhzhia: Previous attack resulted in 33 injured. High volume of Russian strikes (400 in 24 hrs) reported, causing significant property damage.
  • Mykolaiv: Industrial infrastructure hit by Shahed attack; no casualties reported.
  • Other Areas: Attacks and damage reported in Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk (including civilian injuries from UXO), and Kupiansk (rescue unit hit).
• Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) Threat: Ongoing threat and reported launches of KABs by Russian tactical aviation, particularly against Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• Ukrainian Deep Strikes: Confirmed drone attack on a church in Tolokonnoe, Belgorod Oblast, causing fire. Continued drone activity reported over Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod Oblasts.

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III. Ground Operations Analysis

• Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity - 83 Engagements Yesterday): Remains the primary Russian focus. Russian sources claim advances south of Uspenivka into Novooleksandrivka, clearing forest belts, and fighting near Kotlino and Shevchenko. Ukrainian forces are reinforcing defenses and report repelling numerous assaults.
• Novopavlivka Axis (High Intensity - 50 Attempts Yesterday): Extremely high number of Russian breakthrough attempts reported by Ukraine, particularly near Kostiantynopil, Novosilka, Rivnopil, and towards Odradne and Bahatyr. Ukrainian forces report repelling these assaults. Russian sources claim advances near Velyka Novosilka.
• Lyman Axis (High Intensity - 27 Attacks Yesterday): Russia attempting to consolidate after capturing Nove, pressing advances near multiple settlements.
• Kramatorsk Axis (Significant Intensity - 8 Assaults Yesterday): Fighting continues near Chasiv Yar and towards Novomarkove/Bila Hora. Russian VDV units reportedly focused on destroying Ukrainian heavy lift drones ("Baba Yaga").
• Toretsk Axis (Significant Intensity - 8 Attacks Yesterday): Engagements reported near Toretsk, Krymske, Druzhba, and Sukha Balka. Ukrainian forces report eliminating an assault group near Toretsk.
• Kharkiv Axis (Moderate Intensity - 6 Engagements Yesterday): Fighting ongoing near Vovchansk and Kamyanka. Russian claims of troop redeployment from Kursk to reinforce this direction suggest potential for increased activity.
• Southern Front (Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Prydniprovskyi): Moderate Russian assault attempts reported on Orikhiv and Huliaipole axes. No offensive actions reported on Prydniprovskyi direction. High volume of Russian shelling and drone attacks reported in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russian sources claim successful strikes on Ukrainian positions/command posts on the Southern Donetsk direction.

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IV. Air & Naval Warfare Analysis

• Air Domain: Highly contested. Russia maintains a high tempo of drone and KAB strikes, often targeting civilian areas and causing significant casualties. Ukrainian Air Defence remains active and effective (reporting 77/183 strike UAVs downed) but faces challenges from the sheer volume and tactics (decoys). The confirmed Ukrainian naval drone capability to engage air targets (Su-30) represents a paradigm shift in the Black Sea air-sea battle. Russian reconnaissance UAV activity persists.
• Naval Domain: Significant activity. Ukraine executed a large-scale combined attack on Novorossiysk and Crimea using UAVs and USVs. Russian naval forces actively engaged attacking USVs off Crimea, claiming multiple kills. The Russian Black Sea Fleet maintains 3 Kalibr carriers (potential salvo 18 missiles), posing a continued threat. Russia continues to violate SOLAS conventions, likely to conceal movements. The claimed hit on a Russian aircraft by a Ukrainian USV highlights the evolving risks to Russian assets operating over the Black Sea.

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V. Capabilities, Logistics & Personnel

• Ukraine:
  • Capabilities: Demonstrating significant innovation in unmanned systems (air-to-air naval drone engagement, extended range FPVs, heavy lift drones). Effective AD against drones, but requires bolstering. Conducting successful deep strikes and counter-EW operations. Training emphasis on drone operations and adapting tactics. Actively seeking Western systems (F-16).
  • Logistics: Receiving critical support (US F-16 package, UK AS-90s). Continued reliance on volunteer fundraising for unit-level needs (drones, equipment restoration). Facing internal challenges (alleged procurement corruption - mortar case).
  • Personnel: High reported Russian losses (+1170 yesterday). Ukrainian forces demonstrating resilience in defense. Ongoing recruitment and training efforts. Addressing POW/MIA issues and veteran support. Efforts to improve mobilization efficiency.
• Russia:
  • Capabilities: Sustains high volume of air/drone/missile/artillery strikes. Employs diverse drones (Shahed, Lancet, FPV). Extensive use of KABs. Tactical adaptation (counter-drone measures, remote mining, claimed UGV destruction). Developing new EW systems ("Solaris NS"). Integrating DPRK troops. Claiming destruction of UA/Western equipment. Showcasing drone development (Lancet upgrades).
  • Logistics: Potential strain indicated by volunteer fundraising, reliance on DPRK troops, reports of faulty equipment, potential personnel misallocation (pilot to infantry). Utilizing occupied territories for support. Showcasing grassroots support (armored kits).
  • Personnel: High losses indicated by UA/Western reports and potentially by internal issues. Integrating DPRK troops. Reports of internal issues (discipline failures, criminal activity, alleged mistreatment of injured soldiers, recruitment/morale challenges). Completing investigation into high-profile corruption case (Kuznetsov).

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VI. Information Operations & Diplomacy

• Diplomacy: Tensions escalate around May 9th. Zelenskyy rejects Putin's 3-day ceasefire, proposing a 30-day truce; Russia dismisses this, with Peskov and Zakharova accusing Ukraine of terrorism and neo-Nazism. Medvedev issues direct threats against Kyiv. US signals withdrawal from active mediation. Potential attendance issues for foreign leaders at Moscow parade. US approves F-16 package and arms sale to Saudi Arabia. Ukraine engages in UN advocacy on POWs.
• Propaganda: Both sides active. Russia promotes Victory Day narratives, uses historical figures (Churchill deepfake), highlights alleged Ukrainian failures/atrocities (mobilization, POW mistreatment, Riga robbery), frames Ukrainian deep strikes (church attack) as terrorism, showcases claimed military successes and new tech (Lancet), and promotes patriotic content. Ukraine highlights Russian aggression/civilian impact (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia), showcases defensive successes and Russian losses (casualty figures, Su-30 downing), counters Russian narratives, promotes international support (UK parade), emphasizes resilience (agriculture, beautification projects), and commemorates fallen soldiers.

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VII. Humanitarian Situation

• Civilian Casualties: High number of injured in Kharkiv (51) and Zaporizhzhia (33) from Russian aerial attacks. Confirmed civilian injuries in Novorossiysk (5) and damage in Anapa from Ukrainian deep strikes. Casualties also reported in Bryansk Oblast from Ukrainian drone attacks. Ongoing threat from shelling and UXO (Dnipropetrovsk incident).
• Infrastructure Damage: Extensive damage to residential buildings, educational facilities, industrial sites (Mykolaiv), grain terminals (Novorossiysk), and rescue units (Kupiansk) reported. Repair and compensation efforts ongoing in Ukraine.
• Displacement & POWs: Evacuations continue in frontline areas. Ukraine actively advocates for POW release at UN. Russian claims of disrupted POW/casualty exchange require verification. Concerns persist over treatment of POWs and mobilized personnel with severe injuries in Russia.

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VIII. Assessment & Outlook

The conflict remains intensely attritional, with Russia maintaining significant offensive pressure, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis, while incurring heavy losses. Ukraine's successful execution of a complex, multi-domain deep strike targeting Crimea and Novorossiysk, including the confirmed use of a naval drone to down a Russian Su-30 aircraft, marks a significant tactical and potentially strategic shift, demonstrating advanced capabilities and posing new challenges for Russian air and naval forces in the Black Sea.

Expect continued intense ground combat, particularly in the East, and persistent Russian aerial bombardment across Ukraine, leading to further civilian casualties. Ukrainian deep strikes are likely to continue, forcing Russia to adapt its defenses and potentially retaliate.

The diplomatic environment is highly charged, with escalating rhetoric and threats surrounding May 9th. A negotiated settlement remains distant due to fundamentally opposed positions. International support for Ukraine, particularly the US F-16 package, remains crucial, while internal Russian issues and potential political shifts in the US add elements of uncertainty.

Key indicators: Verification of claimed territorial changes; impact and frequency of Ukrainian deep strikes and Russian countermeasures (especially naval/air adaptation); developments around May 9th (attendance, rhetoric, military actions); F-16 integration progress; impact of potential new sanctions; internal stability indicators in Russia (discipline, morale, economic factors); verification of high casualty claims by both sides.

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(End Summary)