Major Military Situation Updates - December 20, 2024, 15:55 UTC

Key Updates

• Kyiv Missile and Drone Attack: Kyiv was subjected to a significant missile and drone attack early on December 20th. Multiple districts were affected, with damage to civilian infrastructure, including a heating main, an office building, and St. Nicholas Cathedral. One person was killed, and 13 were injured. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted all 5 ballistic missiles and 40 of 65 drones.
• Intense Shelling of Kherson: Kherson and surrounding areas are under constant, heavy shelling from the Russian-occupied left bank of the Dnipro River. One person was killed, and 18 were injured. Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups (DRGs) attempted to advance but were reportedly destroyed.
• Russian Advances on Multiple Fronts:
  • Kursk Region: Russian forces liberated Novoivanovka and are making progress in the Sudzha district. They disrupted a Ukrainian troop rotation and repelled counterattacks. Ukrainian reserves being transferred to the region were reportedly destroyed in Sumy Oblast.
  • Donetsk Front: Russian forces control approximately 80% of Kurakhove and are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces. They liberated Ostrovsky (Konstantinopolskoe), Zelenovka, and Uspenovka, and are advancing towards Ukrainka. Heavy fighting continues near Toretsk and Chasov Yar.
  • Vremivka Direction: Russian forces achieved success in Novyi Komar and are attacking near Velyka Novosilka and Storozheve. They captured a Ukrainian stronghold north of Nesterianka.
• Drone Warfare: Both sides continue to utilize drones extensively. Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station. The Ukrainian Air Force claimed to have destroyed all drones targeting Kyiv.
• Alleged Assassination of Russian General: Ukrainian sources claim responsibility for the assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov in Moscow. A suspect, a 29-year-old Uzbek citizen named Akhmad Kurbanov, has been arrested and confessed to being recruited by Ukrainian special services. He has been charged with terrorism and illegal manufacturing of explosives. Russian officials have vowed retribution, and the Russian Permanent Mission to the UN will raise the issue at a Security Council meeting on December 20.
• Cyberattack on Ukraine: A major cyberattack targeted Ukraine's state registry systems, disrupting operations. Russian hacker group XakNet claimed responsibility. Ukrainian officials reported no data leaks.
• International Reactions:
  • Slovakia: Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico announced Slovakia's intention to block possible EU sanctions against Russia in the nuclear energy sector and stated that Zelensky has ruled out continuing gas transit through Ukraine. He also threatened Ukraine with a "serious conflict" if Kyiv stops the transit of Russian gas to Slovakia.
  • Hungary: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will reportedly postpone the decision on extending sanctions against Russia until after Trump's inauguration. The EU Council called its statement that "Ukraine must win this war" a mistake.
  • Turkey: Turkey reportedly received an exemption from the US for Gazprombank for gas payments from Russia.
  • Poland: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk traveled to Lviv to meet with President Zelensky.
• Other Developments:
  • The Pentagon reported that there are about 2,000 US troops in Syria, not 900 as previously stated.
  • NATO is reportedly preparing for war with Russia, and Moscow is taking these risks into account in its military planning.
  • Russian media reported a global disruption in the operation of the Steam platform.
  • The Ukrainian Parliament passed a bill on compensation for destroyed property in temporarily occupied territories and active combat zones.
  • The Ukrainian military is forming a third heavy mechanized brigade.
  • A Russian soldier, Maxim Potashev, was awarded the title of Hero of Russia for destroying multiple Ukrainian targets with UAVs.
  • A captured Ukrainian soldier confessed to receiving orders to shoot civilians if necessary.
  • A Brazilian mercenary admitted to killing two Russian soldiers in the Kursk region.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that 59 Ukrainian servicemen surrendered in the past week, 10 settlements in the Donetsk People's Republic were liberated, and 519 Ukrainian drones were shot down.
  • The Ministry of Defense of Georgia summoned the British ambassador after the UK imposed sanctions on Georgian officials.
  • A 75-year-old pensioner from Omsk was found guilty of "rehabilitating Nazism" for reposting content from social media.
  • A participant in the conflict reportedly killed his 14-year-old daughter, injured his wife and son, and then committed suicide in Yakutia.
  • Russia and Ukraine exchanged the bodies of deceased soldiers.
  • The Biden administration is preparing a $1.2 billion military aid package for Ukraine.
  • A video was released alleging that captured soldiers in a Yakutsk pre-trial detention center were being tortured to force them to return to the front.

Strategic Implications

• Escalation and Multi-Front Pressure: The intensified attacks on Kyiv, combined with Russian advances on multiple fronts, indicate a strategy of escalation and multi-front pressure on Ukraine.
• Internal Challenges: The testimony of the Russian POW, reports of manpower shortages, and corruption allegations highlight potential internal challenges within the Russian military, which could impact their long-term operational capabilities.
• International Divisions: The differing positions of Slovakia and Hungary on EU sanctions reveal growing divisions within Europe regarding the approach to the conflict, potentially impacting the unity and effectiveness of the Western response.
• Cyber Warfare: The cyberattack on Ukraine demonstrates the increasing importance of cyber warfare as a tool for disruption and destabilization, highlighting the need for robust cybersecurity measures.
• Negotiation Challenges: The statements from Ukrainian and Russian officials highlight the significant obstacles to achieving a negotiated settlement, with both sides holding firm to their positions.
• Protracted Conflict: The ongoing fighting, internal challenges, and geopolitical divisions suggest the conflict is likely to be protracted, with no clear end in sight.
• Civilian Casualties: The continued targeting of civilian areas in Kyiv and Kherson raises serious concerns about civilian casualties and the humanitarian impact of the conflict.
• Infrastructure Damage: The damage to infrastructure, including the heating main in Kyiv, the warehouse in Boryspil, and various buildings in Donetsk, will have significant consequences for the civilian population and the Ukrainian economy.
• Potential for Further Escalation: The intensity of the attacks and the rhetoric from both sides suggest a high risk of further escalation in the coming days and weeks.
• Drone Warfare: The widespread use of drones by both sides underscores the importance of this technology in modern warfare, requiring both offensive and defensive strategies to counter it.
• Information Warfare: The use of propaganda and misinformation by both sides highlights the importance of controlling the narrative and shaping public opinion.
• Corruption: The allegations of corruption in the construction of fortifications in the Kursk region highlight the potential for internal weaknesses and the need for accountability.
• International Aid: The ongoing conflict and the resulting damage underscore the need for continued international aid and support for Ukraine. The US is preparing a $1.2 billion aid package for Ukraine.
• Negotiations: The statements from Ukrainian and Russian officials about negotiations highlight the challenges of reaching a peace agreement, given the preconditions and the realities on the ground.
• Military Technology: The claims about Ukraine's potential development of directed-energy weapons, even if exaggerated, point to the importance of technological advancements in the conflict.
• Humanitarian Crisis: The ongoing attacks and the resulting damage to infrastructure and civilian areas are exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.
• War of Attrition: The continued fighting and the reported advances by Russian forces suggest that the conflict is becoming a war of attrition, with both sides trying to wear down the other.
• Geopolitical Implications: The conflict continues to have significant geopolitical implications, affecting relations between Russia and the West, as well as the stability of the region.
• Cybersecurity: The reported cyberattack on Ukrainian state registries highlights the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to cyber threats and the need for enhanced cybersecurity measures.
• Internal Russian Issues: The reports of corruption and the detention of officials within Russia suggest internal challenges and potential instability within the Russian government.
• Psychological Warfare: The use of drone footage and reports of attacks on civilian areas are likely intended to have a psychological impact on both the Ukrainian population and military.
• Targeting of Civilian Infrastructure: The attacks on civilian infrastructure, including residential buildings, hospitals, and schools, indicate a deliberate strategy to disrupt daily life and create a humanitarian crisis.

Immediate Concerns

• Civilian Casualties: The continued targeting of civilian areas in Kyiv and Kherson raises serious concerns about civilian casualties and the humanitarian impact of the conflict.
• Infrastructure Damage: The damage to infrastructure, including the heating main in Kyiv, the warehouse in Boryspil, and various buildings in Donetsk, will have significant consequences for the civilian population and the Ukrainian economy.
• Potential for Further Escalation: The intensity of the attacks and the rhetoric from both sides suggest a high risk of further escalation in the coming days and weeks.

Strategic Recommendations

1. Reinforce Ukrainian defenses, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions.
2. Enhance counter-drone capabilities and develop strategies to counter the extensive use of drones by Russian forces.
3. Secure supply lines and ensure the flow of essential resources to Ukrainian forces.
4. Strengthen air defense systems to counter Russian missile and drone attacks.
5. Improve intelligence gathering to monitor Russian troop movements and anticipate actions.
6. Address internal issues within the Ukrainian military, including desertion, morale, and training.
7. Seek increased international support for military, economic, and humanitarian aid.
8. Implement measures to protect civilians, including evacuations and safe zones.
9. Develop effective strategies to counter disinformation and propaganda.
10. Enhance cybersecurity measures to protect critical infrastructure.
11. Investigate and prosecute all alleged war crimes and atrocities.
12. Monitor regional instability and assess potential impacts on the conflict.
13. Prepare for potential escalation and develop contingency plans.
14. Explore all possible avenues for a diplomatic resolution while maintaining a strong military posture.
15. Increase humanitarian assistance to affected populations.
16. Continue to exert economic pressure on Russia through sanctions.
17. Develop a long-term strategy for rebuilding and stabilizing Ukraine.
18. Monitor North Korean involvement and assess potential risks.
19. Investigate reports of poor training and morale within the Russian military.
20. Monitor the situation in Syria and assess its implications.
21. Track Russian naval movements, particularly in the Black Sea and Mediterranean.
22. Address internal security threats within Russia and Ukraine.
23. Prepare for potential peacekeeping missions.
24. Monitor Belarusian military activities.
25. Strengthen international cooperation among allies.
26. Assess the impact of sanctions on Russia and consider adjustments.
27. Monitor the economic impact of the conflict.
28. Prepare for potential refugee flows.
29. Promote diplomatic solutions while supporting Ukraine's defense.
30. Analyze the impact of new technologies on the battlefield.
31. Address the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.
32. Assess the implications of the war of attrition strategy.
33. Monitor geopolitical implications and adjust strategies accordingly.
34. Counter psychological warfare tactics employed by both sides.
35. Address the targeting of civilian infrastructure and seek accountability.

The situation remains highly volatile and fluid. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict. The ongoing fighting, internal challenges, and geopolitical divisions suggest a protracted conflict with no clear end in sight.