Strategic Overview The operational environment is currently defined by preparations for a major Russian aerial offensive and corresponding Ukrainian deep-strike disruptions. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal issued a formal warning that Russian forces are staging a new wave of attacks against the national energy grid. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces executed long-range UAV strikes into southwestern Russia, targeting infrastructure in Rostov and Krasnodar to disrupt Russian logistical and energy nodes.

Politically, Ukraine faces tightening external constraints. Hungary formally blocked a €90 billion EU macro-financing loan in retaliation for Ukraine's halt of Russian oil transit via the Druzhba pipeline. Simultaneously, the imminent implementation of a 10% global US import tariff has created economic volatility, prompting Ukraine to submit a "new and clear defense plan" to NATO to secure mid-to-long-term defensive structuring. Poland's commitment to fund 29,000 Starlink terminals provides a critical, immediate sustainment bridge for Ukrainian tactical communications.

Operational Updates

• Northern Sector (Kharkiv): Weather conditions are -7.5°C with 0% cloud cover. The clear skies are facilitating Russian optical reconnaissance. A Russian loitering munition struck the Novobavarskyi district of Kharkiv city. Defensively, the UAF 3rd Assault Brigade is maintaining persistent FPV strikes against Russian light logistics and personnel.
• Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donetsk): Operations are constrained by weather, with Pokrovsk experiencing active snow and 99% cloud cover at -1.1°C, significantly degrading high-altitude drone observation. The UAF 425th Separate Assault Battalion successfully cleared Russian dugouts using integrated infantry and FPV assets. Conversely, the Russian "Tsentr" Group of Forces utilized TOS-1A thermobaric systems to blunt Ukrainian counter-attacks.
• Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): Near-freezing temperatures (0.5°C) and light rain are exacerbating ground saturation and mud conditions. The Russian Vostok Group of Forces claims to be repelling Ukrainian tactical probes along the border areas. An incoming Russian UAV strike caused a fire and civilian vehicle damage in urban Zaporizhzhia.
• Strategic Rear (Rostov/Krasnodar & Crimea): Ukrainian long-range UAVs penetrated Russian airspace, striking Volgodonsk (Rostov Oblast)—a node housing the Rostov Nuclear Power Plant and heavy industry—though the exact point of impact is unverified. In Krasnodar, a confirmed UAV impact ruptured and ignited a gas pipeline. An urgent air raid alert was also triggered in Sevastopol, Crimea, indicating a multi-vector Ukrainian strike package.

Equipment & Losses

• Confirmed: Damage to a Russian gas pipeline in Krasnodar via UAF UAV strike.
• Confirmed: Russian TOS-1A systems deployed by the 2nd Guards NBC Protection Regiment in the Eastern sector.
• Confirmed: Infrastructure and civilian vehicle damage in Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv cities from Russian UAV strikes.
• Unconfirmed: Russian claims regarding the death of Major Serhiy Novskov, Deputy Commander of the UAF 44th Artillery Brigade, near Orikhiv.

Confidence Check

• HIGH: Warning of impending energy grid strikes, Hungarian EU loan veto, UAF long-range strikes in Krasnodar, Starlink sustainment from Poland.
• MEDIUM: Specific targets of the Volgodonsk UAV strike and the scale of UAF counter-attacks in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
• LOW: Russian claims of massive UAF casualties and the death of the UAF 44th Artillery Brigade deputy commander.

The Bottom Line The immediate operational threat is a coordinated Russian strike on the Ukrainian energy grid. Intelligence indicators, including the Prime Minister's warning and SAR data from AB Olenya, point to staging for strategic aviation or ballistic missile launches. In the short term, UAF forces will likely continue deep-rear harassment to complicate Russian staging, while preparing to mitigate multi-axis loitering munition swarms designed to fix air defense systems ahead of heavier strikes.