It’s -27°C, and the war has shifted into a brutal grind against infrastructure. After a barrage of more than 400 drones and 40 missiles, Ukraine’s energy grid is barely hanging on. The Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant in the west is down, severing a vital link to the European grid, and the nuclear plants have tripped offline to save the system. It feels like a deliberate attempt to freeze the population by isolating the western "safe zone" from the national power supply.

To make matters worse, the digital front is a mess. Ukraine tried to update their Starlink "White List" to brick terminals captured by Russians, but the move backfired. Now, frontline units are dealing with connection outages and "blue-on-blue" technical friction right when they need command and control the most.

Despite the gloom, there is some movement on the ground. The International Battalion managed to clear Zoloty Kolodyaz in the Donetsk sector, capturing 18 prisoners—proof that tactical wins are still possible even when the strategic picture looks grim. Meanwhile, in Lyman, the Russians are adapting to the drone threat by deploying "Kurier" ground robots for logistics. It makes sense; why risk infantry running ammo when FPVs are everywhere?

There is a lot of noise coming out of the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia junction. Russian channels are shouting about a "total collapse" of Ukrainian lines, but I’d take that with a huge grain of salt. It looks like disinformation timed to exploit the Starlink blackout, though they are definitely probing to see if Ukrainian eyes are closed.

Looking at the satellite data, the activity spikes we saw earlier at Site 105 and the 260th GRAU Arsenal have dropped to zero. Usually, when a depot goes quiet like that, it means the munitions have already moved to the launch platforms—which explains the missile wave we just saw. We should keep an eye on the 183rd Guards Regiment, though; their activity is volatile, suggesting they are either reloading or actively maneuvering.

In terms of confidence levels, the grid collapse and diplomatic tensions with Hungary are confirmed facts. However, reports of a breakthrough at Popovka in Sumy come from a single source, so I'm skeptical.

The next 12 hours are a race against physics. If the grid requires a "dark start" in these temperatures, pipes will burst, and the habitability damage will be long-term. If the Starlink outages aren't fixed rapidly, the Russians might try to turn that Dnipro psy-op into a reality. The timing of these strikes suggests they are being used as leverage for whatever negotiations are happening in the background.