Strategic Situation

The war has shifted into a brutal phase of infrastructure targeting. With temperatures locking in at -27°C, the stakes are immediate. Belgorod has lost central heating and hot water following Ukrainian strikes, and the pressure on the Kremlin to retaliate is massive. I expect them to go after Ukraine’s energy grid tonight to coincide with the blizzard warnings.

On the ground, the deep freeze has turned the mud into concrete. That’s dangerous—it means Russian mechanized units can move fast again. We aren't looking at static trench warfare right now; these are fluid encounters, and lines are buckling in the South and East.

The Front

The situation in Zaporizhzhia is genuinely alarming. Russian "Vostok" groups have reportedly breached the Huliaipole fortifications. If that holds, the stability of the entire southern front is compromised. In the Donbas, it’s not much better. Russian sources claim the 5th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade has cleared Dymytrov (Myrnohrad). Even if fighting is still happening on the outskirts, Pokrovsk’s northern flank is now exposed.

In the north, the cold cuts both ways. Ukrainian "Phoenix" units are tearing up infantry because Russian troops stand out starkly against the snow on thermal cameras. Meanwhile, a massive drone swarm is hitting Sevastopol; Ukraine has already confirmed a kill on a Russian BK-16 transport craft and an RSP-10 radar system.

Satellite Data

I’ve been looking at the radar imagery, and one anomaly demands attention: the 1st Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment HQ. The activity difference score hit 29.50 today—for context, the average is usually around 5. That level of movement suggests they are frantically reshuffling air defenses, likely to plug gaps or prepare for the new $15 billion NATO aid package.

Conversely, the 260th GRAU Arsenal is dead quiet. That flatline is what worries me. As I mentioned yesterday, when a logistics hub goes silent like this, it usually means the munitions have already been moved to the launch platforms.

Outlook

The next 24 hours look grim. The combination of the blizzard and the "silence" at the rocket depots suggests a coordinated strike is imminent. Russian Spetsnaz are already using thermal drones to hunt evacuation teams—at these temperatures, a human body glows like a flare.

If you are in Kyiv or Kharkiv, the incoming storm will likely be used as cover for a strike on the grid. Keep your devices charged.