Strategic Overview

It’s -27°C out there, and the strategy is obvious: Moscow is trying to freeze Kyiv into submission while the diplomats talk in Abu Dhabi. The hit on TPP-4 wasn't just infrastructure damage; it was leverage.

But Kyiv played a smart card today. The Ministry of Defense finally implemented a "White List" for Starlink terminals. This effectively bricks any Russian-captured terminals on the frontline. Russian FPV teams and artillery spotters have been freeloading on SpaceX connectivity for months—cutting that feed severs a major nerve for them.

On the Ground and In the Air

The Starlink Blackout This is the big news. Russian channels are already screaming about lost connectivity. This hurts their ability to coordinate "Rubicon" fiber-optic drone strikes and messes up their local command and control. It’s a massive digital headache for them right when they need coordination most.

Strikes in the Russian Rear Ukraine isn't just taking hits; they sent a swarm of 95 UAVs deep into Russia. They hit the Kapustin Yar testing range (Site 105), which is where the ICBMs live. Also, the T-Bank (Tinkoff) payment system crashed. That matters because it disrupts the crowdfunding logistics for Russian volunteer supplies.

Kyiv is Freezing Mayor Klitschko confirmed TPP-4 is destroyed. Repair crews in the Darnytskyi district are racing the weather. If the water in those pipes freezes and bursts, the damage isn't a quick fix—it’s permanent.

Confusion in the South Russia claims they took Stepanovka and Staroukrainka. I’d treat that with extreme skepticism until we see visual proof. It’s chaotic down there—Russian assault groups are driving captured M113 APCs, making identification a nightmare for defenders.

Satellite Intel (SAR)

The radar imagery on the logistics hubs is flashing red.

We’re seeing a massive activity spike at the "Missile Arsenal" and the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base. When ammo depots go from dormant to active like this, it usually means the logistics are moving from storage to transport. Historically, this signature precedes a massive missile wave by about 24 to 48 hours. Pskov Airbase is lighting up, too.

The Reality Check

What holds up: The Starlink blockade is real—confirmed by angry Russian milbloggers. The damage to Kyiv's grid is also confirmed. What’s shaky: The Russian territorial gains in the south look like single-source propaganda for now.

Final Thoughts

This next 12 hours looks ugly. The combination of the TPP-4 destruction and the depot activity suggests Moscow wants to turn the lights out completely tonight. The only silver lining is the Starlink blackout—blinding their frontline comms might buy Ukrainian defenders just enough chaos to hold the line while the skies are contested.