Strategic Context

Everyone is watching the "Davos Shuffle" and the confirmed trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the US, and Russia in the UAE tomorrow. But on the ground, the war just escalated. France opened a new kinetic front in the Mediterranean by seizing a Russian "shadow fleet" tanker. Moscow is calling it "piracy," but I see it as attacking Russia's wallet directly—enforcing sanctions with steel rather than paper.

We also have a critical data point on Russian sustainability. Zelenskyy reports that Russian monthly casualties (45,000) have finally surpassed their mobilization rate (40,000–43,000). If those numbers are accurate, the Kremlin has entered a "net-negative" manpower cycle. This mathematical reality likely explains the frantic push we're seeing; they are racing against their own burning fuse.

On the Ground

Donbas Sector: The VKS reportedly dropped a FAB-3000 heavy glide bomb on Ukrainian positions in Kostiantynivka. This is a massive escalation in munition weight, designed to crush hardened bunkers that smaller KABs can't crack. We also have visual confirmation that North Korean Type 75 MLRS units are active here.

Northern Sector: The drone threat is shifting. UAVs are tracking from Chernihiv toward Kyiv's outskirts. Ukrainian defenses are adapting, though; specialized "Yokai" mobile units reported 28 successful intercepts, proving effective against high-volume swarms.

Southern Sector: The Russians are "shaping" the battlefield ahead of the UAE talks. We're seeing a mix of ballistic missiles and heavy KAB strikes targeting infrastructure. In Kryvyi Rih, a ballistic strike hit a residential building, and the high-speed tram system is offline.

The Mediterranean: The French Navy officially detained a tanker originating from Murmansk operating under a false flag. This disrupts the shadow logistics chain and sends a hard signal to the Kremlin that the maritime domain is no longer safe.

Radar & Satellite Analysis

Looking at the latest radar returns, two things stand out in the Russian rear:

1. 1st Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment: This unit near the border is "waking up." Activity scores jumped to 8.16, which implies significant vehicle movement or radar emissions. They are likely deploying to a new firing position.
2. 120th GRAU Arsenal: Activity here has flatlined to 0.00. In intelligence terms, when a major arsenal goes quiet, it often means it has been emptied out. A massive shipment of munitions is likely on the road to the front.

Confidence Assessment

• UAE Trilateral Meeting: High confidence. Confirmed by Zelenskyy.
• French Tanker Seizure: High confidence. Confirmed by President Macron and TASS.
• FAB-3000 Use: Medium confidence. Reported by reliable sources, but I am still waiting for visual damage assessment (BDA).
• Net-Negative Manpower: Medium confidence. Based on Ukrainian official figures, but the trend aligns with the observed reliance on North Korean assets.

Final Thoughts

Don't get distracted by the "Peace Council" rumors. The real signals are the FAB-3000 and the French naval intervention. Russia is trying to break Ukrainian lines with brute force before the manpower shortage forces a pause or a politically dangerous new mobilization. Keep an eye on the Zaporizhzhia axis tonight—diplomatic talks often trigger "negotiation by fire" on the ground.