Strategic overview

The war has effectively turned into a race against the thermometer. With temperatures hitting -27°C, the ice is acting as a bridge for Russian infantry to bypass choke points, while simultaneous strikes on infrastructure threaten to freeze Kyiv. The hits on TPP-5 and TPP-6 were clearly timed to maximize the cold snap, though Prime Minister Shmyhal claims they can restore function within 24 to 48 hours.

The battlefield is also getting much bigger. Ukraine just demonstrated reach into the Komi Republic—about 1,750km from the border. Hitting a refinery that deep inside Russia effectively kills the idea of a "safe rear" for energy logistics.

Operational updates

Strikes deep inside Russia The SBU's strike on the Lukoil refinery in Ukhta, Komi, is a significant range expansion. We also have confirmation that the Volgograd refinery has suspended operations after yesterday's hits. The message is pretty clear: distance isn't protection anymore.

Donetsk sector The "Vostok" grouping, specifically Buryat units, is pushing hard on the Pokrovsk axis. The frozen Siverskyi Donets river is the main problem here; Russian infantry are using the ice to flank Ukrainian strongpoints, forcing defenders into close-quarters fights they'd rather avoid.

Kyiv and the north Repair crews are working on the thermal plants, but the air raid sirens aren't helping. Constant alerts for MiG-31Ks and "Oreshnik" scares are keeping air defenses saturated and slowing down the restoration work.

SAR intelligence

Nothing to report.

Equipment and losses

There are confirmed sightings of Be-12 "Chaika" amphibians operating in the Black Sea. These airframes are from the 1960s, which suggests the modern naval aviation fleet is running on fumes.

On the personnel side, reports from Tomsk indicate bailiffs are pressuring homeless people and debtors into signing military contracts to meet recruitment quotas. Meanwhile, Ukraine is formally integrating the International Legion into Ground Forces assault formations to fix command and control issues.

Assessment confidence

• Komi refinery strike (1,750km): High. Confirmed by multiple sources including SBU.
• Impending missile strike: High. The SAR silence at the depots combined with the freezing weather makes this the logical next move.
• Russian "Flamingo" missile claims: Low. This reads like disinformation to justify strikes on Ukrainian production facilities.

The bottom line

The empty GRAU arsenals are the loudest signal in this report. Russia is likely racking missiles for a follow-up blow to keep Kyiv frozen while the thermal plants are down. On the flip side, the strike in Komi proves that no Russian oil facility is safe, regardless of how much snow covers it.