If your phone is buzzing, you already know the map is red. A MiG-31K went up at 14:48 Zulu, triggering a nationwide alert. The timing isn't accidental—Moscow is clearly trying to shape the mood for the trilateral talks in the UAE. They're calling it "negotiation by fire," pounding the energy grid to force power outages while diplomats talk about the "Anchorage Formula."

On the ground, things are getting ugly. The Russians just dropped a FAB-3000 glide bomb near Kostiantynivka in the Donbas. It's a massive escalation—literally. That bomb carries enough weight to crack bunkers that smaller munitions can’t touch.

The Situation on the Ground

Kryvyi Rih is taking a hammering from a mix of rockets and drones—the longest sustained attack the city has seen yet. Over in the Lyman sector, the Ukrainian "Lazari" unit had a better day, claiming they took out 14 Russian armored vehicles.

It's grimmer elsewhere. The Russians claim they took Siminovka, and there are unconfirmed reports of clashes across the border in Sumy. The situation in Kupyansk is messy; there’s a report floating around that a Russian assault group got cut off at the Central District Hospital, but it's single-source intel, so take it with a grain of salt.

On the tech side, Ukraine just rolled out "Mission Control," a new integration tool for their drone operations.

What the Satellites See

The radar data worries me more than the diplomatic posturing. Activity at the Voronezh Malshevo airbase has spiked, which usually means crews are prepping for another wave of sorties.

Conversely, the 260th GRAU Arsenal has gone dead silent. When a major ammo dump goes quiet on radar, it usually means it’s empty because everything has been loaded onto trucks and trains headed for the front.

The Bottom Line

Ignore the noise coming out of Abu Dhabi. The logistics tell the real story: an empty arsenal and a busy airfield mean Russia is locking and loading for a heavy strike cycle in the next 48 hours. Keep your head down.