Daily Intelligence Briefing: Ukraine - February 9, 2025 (End of Day)

Prepared for: Ukrainian High Command Prepared by: Military Intelligence AI Assistant Date: February 9, 2025 (23:59 UTC)

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I. Executive Summary

The situation on February 9, 2025, has seen a significant escalation in several key areas, posing major challenges to Ukrainian forces. The day was dominated by a massive, country-wide Russian drone attack, targeting critical infrastructure and civilian areas across nearly every region of Ukraine. This represents the most pressing and immediate threat. Concurrently, intense fighting continues on multiple fronts, particularly in the Pokrovsk, Kursk, and Kharkiv regions, with conflicting claims of advances and counter-offensives. The threat of ballistic missile and guided aerial bomb attacks adds another layer of complexity. The confirmed Ukrainian strike on the Afipsky Oil Refinery deep inside Russia demonstrates a significant capability, but also risks retaliation. The day saw a confirmed Ukrainian strike on a civilian vehicle, constituting a war crime. Several other extremely serious allegations of atrocities and war crimes require immediate investigation.

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II. Key Developments and Assessments

A. Widespread, Escalating Drone Warfare (Extreme Priority)

• Massive Russian Drone Attack (Confirmed): Russia launched a major, coordinated, multi-wave drone attack targeting nearly every region of Ukraine, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, and Khmelnytskyi.
  • Ukrainian air defenses intercepted a large number (61 of 83) of drones, but others penetrated defenses, causing damage.
  • The attacks targeted both military and civilian infrastructure, with confirmed strikes on parking lots in Sumy (causing damage and at least one injury), residential areas in Kharkiv, and critical infrastructure in various regions.
• Ukrainian Drone Strikes (Confirmed): Ukrainian forces also conducted drone attacks, including:
  • Confirmed strikes on Russian military equipment (tanks, APCs, artillery) in multiple locations.
  • Confirmed strikes inside Russia, notably targeting the Afipsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai (a strategically significant target).
  • A confirmed, deliberate strike on a civilian vehicle in the Zaporizhzhia region, resulting in two deaths. This constitutes a war crime.
• Ukrainian Drone Development: A confirmed plan called "Drone Line"
• Russian Drone Development: Reports of Russian drones armed with IEDs.
• New Tactic: Claims of Russian forces using netting over roads.
• North Korean Drone Production: Reports claim that North Korea may start producing drones for Russia.

Assessment: Drone warfare has become the dominant feature of the conflict, with both sides employing drones extensively. The scale and scope of the Russian attacks, targeting civilian areas and infrastructure across the entire country, represent a major escalation. The confirmed Ukrainian strike on the Afipsky Oil Refinery demonstrates significant reach and capability. The confirmed Ukrainian strike on a civilian vehicle is a serious violation of international law.

B. Intense Fighting on Multiple Fronts (High Priority)

• Pokrovsk Direction (Donetsk Oblast): Remains the most intense area of combat, with conflicting claims of advances and counterattacks. Ukrainian forces claim to have repelled numerous Russian assaults and regained some positions, while also acknowledging Russian consolidation near a key highway. Russian sources claim continued advances. Verification is critical.
• Kursk Region (Russia): The situation remains highly contested and unclear. Conflicting reports of Ukrainian incursions, Russian counteroffensives, and claimed captures of settlements persist. Allegations of mass atrocities by Ukrainian forces in this region require immediate and thorough investigation.
• Kharkiv Region: Continued fighting and air strikes, particularly with guided aerial bombs, are reported. Ukrainian forces claim successes in destroying Russian equipment with drones.
• Lyman Direction: Russian sources claim advances near Yampolivka and Terny.
• Chasiv Yar (Donetsk Oblast): Continued fighting reported, with both sides utilizing drones.
• Zaporizhzhia Region: Continued shelling and air raid alerts.
• Kupyansk: Russian sources claim advances, and that they are trying to create a "pocket."
• Toretsk: Ongoing fighting.
• Seversk: Reports of drone strikes in the region.
• Dnipropetrovsk: Claimed advances in the region by Russian sources.
• Other Fronts: Fighting continues, with various claims of success and losses by both sides.

Assessment: The intensity of fighting across multiple fronts stretches Ukrainian resources and necessitates a continuous assessment of defensive positions and potential counter-offensive opportunities. The Pokrovsk direction remains the most critical area, with the potential for significant shifts in territorial control. The conflicting claims in the Kursk region underscore the need for urgent, independent verification of the situation on the ground.

C. Air and Missile Threats (High Priority)

• Ballistic Missile Threat: Confirmed threats of ballistic missile attacks, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, highlight the ongoing risk of high-impact strikes.
• Guided Aerial Bombs: Repeated reports of Russian tactical aviation launching guided aerial bombs, especially in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts, indicate a continued threat to frontline areas.
• High-Speed Targets: Reports of high-speed targets approaching the Odessa region from the Black Sea raised immediate concerns, though the alert was later lifted.
• Claimed Russian Strikes: Russian sources claim strikes on airfields.

Assessment: The threat of air and missile attacks remains extremely high across Ukraine. The use of guided aerial bombs and the potential for ballistic missile launches necessitate constant vigilance and robust air defense capabilities.

D. Geopolitical Developments (High Priority)

• EU Threat to Seize Russian Tankers (Confirmed): The reported EU discussions about seizing Russian "shadow fleet" tankers in the Baltic Sea represent a major escalation in economic warfare and could lead to direct naval confrontations.
• Romanian President's Resignation (Confirmed): The resignation of the Romanian President, amid allegations of Russian interference in elections, introduces significant uncertainty into the regional geopolitical landscape.
• US Aid and Policy Uncertainty: Ongoing discussions about future US aid to Ukraine and potential shifts in US policy under a Trump administration create a volatile and unpredictable environment. Reports suggest a Trump advisor is developing a peace plan.
• NATO Membership for Ukraine (Off the Table): Confirmed statements from German Chancellor Scholz indicate that Ukraine's NATO membership is not currently under consideration.
• Lithuanian Support: Confirmed continued, substantial financial support from Lithuania for Ukrainian drones and military equipment.
• Diplomatic Activity: Zelensky is expected to attend the Munich Security Conference, and a meeting with the US VP is planned. Xi Jinping is reported to be attending Victory Day celebrations in Moscow.

Assessment: The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with potential long-term implications for the conflict. The EU's threat to seize Russian tankers is a major escalation. The uncertainty surrounding US support and the Romanian President's resignation add further complexity. The continued engagement of international partners (Lithuania, NATO) remains crucial.

E. Information Warfare (High Priority)

• Ongoing and Intense: Both sides are actively engaged in information warfare, using propaganda, disinformation, and conflicting claims to shape narratives and influence public opinion.
• Key Themes:
  • Russian sources emphasize Ukrainian losses, Russian successes, and alleged Ukrainian atrocities.
  • Ukrainian sources highlight Russian losses, Ukrainian resilience, Western support, and potential war crimes committed by Russian forces.

Assessment: The information environment is highly contested and requires careful analysis to distinguish between verified facts and propaganda.

F. Internal Russian Issues

• Alleged Disappearance of Volunteers: Reports of missing Russian volunteers, if confirmed, point to potential problems with recruitment, logistics, and morale.
• Potential Sanction Evasion: Reports of a sanctioned Russian company attempting to purchase Western technology for REB production highlight the ongoing efforts to circumvent restrictions.

G. Internal Ukrainian Issues

• Potential Tensions within Military: The detailed report on a deceased Ukrainian soldier revealed criticism of high-ranking officers, suggesting potential internal challenges and morale issues.

H. Other Reports

• Alleged Atrocities in Kursk Region (Extreme Priority, Requires Verification): Reports, primarily from Russian sources, allege mass war crimes by Ukrainian forces against civilians in the Kursk region. These claims, including rape, murder, and looting, demand immediate and thorough investigation by independent bodies. If confirmed, they represent a major escalation and require international condemnation.
• Claimed Ukrainian Counterattacks (Reported, Requires Verification): Reports of Ukrainian counterattacks slowing down the Russian offensive require verification.
• Claimed Destruction of Ukrainian Ammunition Depot (Reported, Requires Verification): A Russian source claims to have destroyed a Ukrainian ammunition depot hidden in a shed in the Sumy border area.

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III. Critical Information Gaps

• Kursk Region Situation: The precise situation on the ground in the Kursk region remains highly unclear, with conflicting reports and unverified claims. Independent verification of troop presence, control of territory, and alleged atrocities is paramount.
• Pokrovsk Direction: The exact lines of control and the status of key settlements (Dachenske, Vodyane Druhe, Uspenivka, etc.) require constant updates and verification.
• Details of Trump's Peace Plan: The specifics of the reported plan and its potential impact on Ukraine remain unknown.
• Extent of Damage from Drone Attacks: While strikes are confirmed, the full extent of damage to infrastructure and military assets requires further assessment.
• Confirmation of Russian Missile Crash (Belgorod): The reported crash of a Russian R-27 missile needs independent confirmation.
• Confirmation of Reported Russian Advances: Numerous claims of Russian advances across multiple fronts require verification.
• Cause of Moscow Fire: Confirmation.
• Claims of atrocities: All claims, on both sides, need to be independently verified.
• Status of Toretsk: Confirmation.

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IV. Recommendations (Prioritized)

1. EXTREME PRIORITY: Counter Widespread Drone Attacks (Country-Wide):

   • Maintain maximum readiness of air defense systems across the entire country.
   • Prioritize interception of drones targeting critical infrastructure and civilian areas.
   • Coordinate air defense efforts across all regions.
   • Utilize early warning systems to provide maximum response time.
   • Deploy all available assets, including electronic warfare systems, to disrupt drone communications.
   • Request immediate assistance from international partners for additional air defense systems and support.

2. EXTREME PRIORITY: Investigate Alleged Atrocities (Kursk Region):

   • Immediately launch independent investigations into the allegations of mass war crimes by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region.
   • Gather all available evidence (photographic/video documentation, witness testimonies, forensic analysis).
   • Attempt to independently verify the location, timing, and circumstances of the alleged incidents.
   • If evidence supports the claims, prepare for potential international condemnation and legal action.

3. EXTREME PRIORITY: Verify Conflicting Claims in Kursk Region:

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the conflicting reports of Ukrainian advances and Russian counterattacks.
   • Determine the actual control of territory and the presence of military forces.
   • Assess the credibility of sources and identify potential disinformation campaigns.

4. EXTREME PRIORITY: Verify and Respond to Pokrovsk Situation:

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to clarify the situation on the ground in the Pokrovsk direction.
   • Reinforce Ukrainian defenses in the area, prioritizing the protection of critical supply routes.
   • Prepare for potential Russian offensive operations aimed at cutting off Ukrainian forces.

5. EXTREME PRIORITY: Investigate Ukrainian Drone Strike on Civilian Vehicle (Zaporizhzhia Region):

   • Conduct a thorough and transparent investigation into the circumstances of the strike.
   • Identify those responsible and hold them accountable.
   • Reinforce rules of engagement and ensure strict adherence to international law.

6. HIGH PRIORITY: Address Potential Shift in US Policy:

   • Engage in diplomatic efforts to maintain support from the US.
   • Explore alternative sources of funding and military aid in case of reduced US support.
   • Prepare for potential scenarios where US support is diminished or withdrawn.

7. HIGH PRIORITY: Exploit and Expand Ukrainian Drone Warfare Capabilities:

   • Rapidly integrate new drone units into operational plans.
   • Focus on targeting Russian command and control, logistics, and reconnaissance capabilities.
   • Develop counter-strategies to Russian adaptations (e.g., netting).
   • Prioritize training and resource allocation to support drone operations.

8. HIGH PRIORITY: Counter Russian Propaganda and Information Warfare:

   • Continue to actively counter Russian disinformation and promote accurate information.
   • Address Russian narratives designed to dehumanize Ukrainians, justify aggression, or undermine international support.

9. HIGH PRIORITY: Monitor and Respond to Russian Advances:

   • Maintain close surveillance of all areas where Russian forces are reported to be advancing, particularly near Kupyansk, Lyman, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
   • Deploy reinforcements and strengthen defenses where necessary.
   • Prepare for potential counter-offensive operations.

10. HIGH PRIORITY: Address Energy Vulnerability:

    • Monitor the impact of power restrictions on Ukrainian industry.
    • Continue efforts to repair damaged infrastructure and enhance energy security.
    • Explore alternative energy sources.

11. MEDIUM PRIORITY: Investigate Potential Russian Morale Issues:

    • Verify reports of Russian deserters in the Bryansk region.
    • Explore opportunities to exploit any vulnerabilities through information operations.

12. Verify Territorial Control Claims (High Priority):

• Independently assess claims of territorial gains and losses by both sides.

13. Verify Vasilkov Airfield Strike (EXTREME PRIORITY):

• Use all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the reported strike. If confirmed, assess the damage and impact on Ukrainian air capabilities.

14. Address Far-Right Elements (High Priority):
    • Counteract anti-Ukrainian propaganda, especially by those sympathetic to the far-right.
15. Prepare for Iranian Actions (Medium Priority):
    • Monitor Iran and prepare for them to be further emboldened.
16. Prepare for Russian Propaganda Campaign (High Priority):
    • Expect claims of the destruction of NATO weaponry to continue.
17. Verify Claims of Drone Attacks on Civilian Vehicles (High Priority):
    • Gather additional information on claimed attacks to confirm whether civilians are being targeted.
18. Verify Territorial Control Claims (High Priority):

• Independently assess claims of territorial gains and losses by both sides.

19. Verify Vasilkov Airfield Strike (EXTREME PRIORITY):

• Use all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the reported strike. If confirmed, assess the damage and impact on Ukrainian air capabilities.

20. Prepare for Potential Ballistic Missile Attacks (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Maintain maximum air defense alert in threatened regions. Ensure early warning systems are functioning optimally. Disperse critical assets if possible.

21. Investigate Drone Attack on Rescue Workers (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Gather evidence and verify the reported attack on rescue workers in the Pokrovsk region. If confirmed, document the incident and prepare for potential legal and diplomatic responses.

22. Monitor Sumy Region Air Activity (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Increase surveillance and air defense readiness in the Sumy region. Be prepared for potential attacks on critical infrastructure and military targets. This includes monitoring for both guided bomb attacks and drone activity.

23. Assess Finland-Russia Tensions (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

• Monitor the situation in the Baltic Sea region. Gather intelligence on potential Russian sabotage activities targeting energy infrastructure.

24. Address Civilian Evacuation Challenges (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Develop and implement strategies to improve civilian evacuation efforts, addressing concerns about safety, security, and property. This includes improved communication, logistical support, and potentially dedicated evacuation corridors.

25. Counteract Elon Musk's Statements (LOW PRIORITY):

• Monitor the impact of Musk's statements on public opinion and be prepared to counter any misinformation or disinformation campaigns that may arise.

26. Counter Shahed Drone Attacks (EXTREME PRIORITY):
    • Deploy all available air defense assets to intercept incoming Shahed drones. Prioritize targets based on the reported trajectories (western movement from Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv; southern movement in Poltava). Coordinate with early warning systems to provide maximum response time.
27. Verify Kharkiv Gas Field Strike (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Use all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, HUMINT, SIGINT) to confirm or refute the reported attack. If confirmed, assess the damage and impact on gas production and supply. Investigate potential links to political motivations.

28. Monitor Impact of Truck Driver Protests (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

• Assess the extent and impact of the truck driver protests in Russia. Monitor for any disruptions to supply chains, particularly those related to military logistics. Investigate the effectiveness of Russian EW systems and any potential adjustments made to minimize interference with civilian infrastructure.

29. Analyze Makeevka Strike Video (HIGH PRIORITY):

• Geolocate and verify the video claiming to show the Makeevka strike. Determine if it was a direct hit or the result of intercepted missile debris. Cross-reference with other intelligence sources to confirm casualties and assess the accuracy of official Russian statements.

30. Assess Russian Counter-Drone Tactics (NEW, HIGH PRIORITY):

• Analyze the effectiveness of the netting used near Bakhmut.
• Develop counter-strategies, such as drones with net-cutting capabilities or alternative attack methods.
• Assess the potential for deploying similar defensive measures to protect Ukrainian logistics.

31. Address Kharkiv Strike (High Priority):

• Provide humanitarian aid to civilians affected by the strike.
  • Restore power to affected areas.

32. Counter Russian Information Campaigns (High Priority):

• Counter Russian propaganda by presenting a unified and consistent message to the media.

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The situation is characterized by a major, ongoing, and escalating country-wide drone attack, posing an immediate and extreme threat to all of Ukraine. This requires urgent, nationwide, and coordinated action. Simultaneously, the ongoing intense fighting, the potential for escalation (both military and geopolitical), and the need to investigate serious allegations require constant attention and adaptive strategies. The confirmed war crime of targeting a civilian vehicle by Ukrainian forces demands immediate investigation and accountability.