Daily Intelligence Summary - Ukraine (February 16, 2025)

Prepared for: Ukrainian High Command Prepared by: AI Military Intelligence Assistant Date: February 16, 2025 (End of Day Summary - Covering reports from 14:20 UTC, Feb 15 to 06:09 UTC, Feb 16)

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I. Executive Summary

February 15-16, 2025, witnessed an extremely dangerous and rapidly evolving situation in Ukraine. The period was marked by:

• Intense, Widespread, and Escalating Combat: The Ukrainian General Staff reported a staggering 250 combat clashes in the past 24 hours, more than doubling the previous day's total. This represents a major Russian offensive push, primarily focused on the Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, Lyman, and Kurakhovo directions.
• Confirmed Russian Advances: Russian forces made confirmed gains in several key areas:
  • Near Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces breached Ukrainian defenses and entered Novosilka, establishing positions within the village. This is a highly significant tactical success for Russia.
  • Kurakhovo Direction: Russian Forces made advances toward Ulakly.
  • Pishchane (Pokrovsk Direction): Conflicting reports, with Ukrainians initially claiming a "turning point" and liberation, but the situation remains contested.
  • Kursk Region: Russian forces reported fighting near Sverdlikovo and, concerningly, claim Ukrainian forces are retreating.
• Reported claims of Ukrainian forces near Kherson: If true, this operation has been reported as a success.
• Massive, Sustained, Multi-Wave Drone Attack (Nationwide): Russia launched an unprecedented, coordinated, and sustained multi-wave drone attack, targeting nearly every region of Ukraine, including Kyiv and its surrounding areas. The attack involved a confirmed total of 143 drones (including Shahed-type and decoy drones), with 95 shot down by Ukrainian air defenses. The sheer scale and persistence of this attack stretched Ukrainian air defenses to their limits.
• Ukrainian Air Strikes: Ukrainian forces continued to conduct air strikes.
• Escalating Air and Missile Threats:
  • Confirmed Ballistic Missile Attacks: Ballistic missiles were launched at Zatoka (Odesa Oblast) and a high-speed target was reported heading towards Dnipropetrovsk.
  • Confirmed Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) Attacks: Russian forces are extensively using KABs, particularly in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • Potential "Zircon" Missile Use: The threat of "Zircon" hypersonic missiles remains a major concern.
• Drone Warfare: Technological Arms Race:
  • Russian Fiber-Optic Guided Drones: The reported use of fiber-optic guided FPV drones by Russia (confirmed by multiple sources, with video evidence) represents a major technological advantage, making them immune to conventional jamming.
  • Ukrainian Drone Successes: Ukrainian forces continue to use drones effectively, claiming numerous strikes on Russian equipment and personnel, including a potentially significant first-time destruction of a Russian TOS-2 "Tosochka" heavy flamethrower system (requires verification).
  • Counter-Drone Operations: Ukrainian forces have claimed that they've destroyed many Russian drones, particularly reconnaissance drones.
• Geopolitical Uncertainty and Potential Shifts:
  • US-Russia Negotiations: Conflicting reports persist about potential US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia, with initial claims of Ukrainian participation later contradicted by multiple Ukrainian sources, including a direct statement from Mykhailo Podolyak. This raises extreme concern about potential agreements being made without Ukrainian involvement. A reported meeting is planned for next week.
  • Trump Factor: Zelensky confirmed that work has begun with the Trump team, highlighting a potential shift in diplomatic focus. A potential Trump-Putin meeting and the development of a "peace plan" by Trump advisors add to the uncertainty.
  • US-Belarus Contacts: Reports of contacts between the Trump administration and Lukashenko suggest a potential shift in US foreign policy, potentially strengthening Lukashenko's position.
  • European Division: Diverging views on the negotiation process (US, Europe, China) and the future of European defense cooperation (e.g., Poland rejecting the idea of a unified European army) are complicating efforts to achieve a unified Western response. Macron is calling for an emergency summit.
  • Potential for European Troop Deployment: Sikorski's statement raised the prospect of European troop deployment to Ukraine.
• Confirmed Chernobyl Sarcophagus Damage: The IAEA confirmed damage to the Chernobyl sarcophagus from a drone strike on February 14th, creating a 6-meter hole. No radiation leak has been reported, but this highlights the extreme risk of military activity near nuclear facilities.
• Claims of Atrocities and War Crimes:
  • Kursk Region: Russian sources continue to make unverified claims of Ukrainian atrocities against civilians in the Kursk region.
  • Russian Executions: Reports of Russian commanders executing their own soldiers.

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II. Key Developments by Front/Region

A. Pokrovsk Direction (Donetsk Oblast)

• Most Intense Fighting: Remains the epicenter of the most intense combat, with a massive number of clashes reported.
• Russian Advances:
  • Confirmed Russian advance west of Kurakhovo, towards Ulakly.
  • Novosilka Breakthrough: [Extreme Priority] Russian forces reportedly broke through Ukrainian defenses and entered Novosilka, with a mechanized column and approximately 20 infantry attempting to fortify positions. This requires immediate verification and response.
  • Claims near Pishchane and Bilytske: Reports of ongoing fighting and Ukrainian attempts to consolidate positions, suggesting a fluid and contested situation. Ukrainian forces initially claimed liberation of Pishchane, but the situation remains unclear.
• Ukrainian Counterattacks: Ukrainian forces claim to have repelled Russian attacks and destroyed equipment, including a potential first-time destruction of a TOS-2 "Tosochka" heavy flamethrower system.
• Claimed Destruction of Ukrainian Howitzer: Russian sources claim to have destroyed a Ukrainian howitzer.

B. Kupyansk Direction (Kharkiv Oblast)

• Oskil River Bridgehead: Russian forces are confirmed to be consolidating positions on the right bank of the Oskil River and expanding their bridgehead.
• Reported Russian Advance Near Topoli: Claims of a Russian river crossing south of Topoli and occupation of new positions. This requires urgent verification.
• Reported shelling by Russia in the area, and the liberation of Berezovka.
• Reported Ukrainian drone strikes.

C. Lyman Direction (Donetsk Oblast)

• Intense Fighting: Continued fighting near Yampolivka and Terny.
• Claimed Russian Advance: Russian sources claim near-total control of Yampolivka.
• Ukrainian 66th Brigade: Claims successful attacks on Russian forces.

D. Kursk Region (Russia)

• Highly Contested and Uncertain: The situation remains extremely unclear and highly contested, with multiple conflicting reports and a high probability of disinformation.
• Confirmed Ukrainian Cross-Border Operations: Ukrainian forces are confirmed to be conducting operations inside Russian territory.
• Russian Claims: Russian sources claim:
  • Repelling Ukrainian incursions and inflicting massive casualties (highly implausible figures).
  • Destroying Ukrainian equipment, including German-made bridge layers (requires verification) and an M113 APC.
  • Advancing near Sverdlikovo.
• Ukrainian Claims: Ukrainian sources claim:
  • Significant Russian losses.
  • Drone strikes on Russian forces and equipment.
• Civilian Casualty: A Ukrainian drone strike in the Belgorod region of Russia killed a woman and damaged a car.
• Alleged Atrocities: Reports, primarily from Russian sources, allege mass war crimes by Ukrainian forces against civilians. These claims demand immediate and thorough investigation by independent bodies.

E. Zaporizhzhia Region

• Intense Bombardment: Confirmed 227 Russian strikes on 12 settlements, using airstrikes, drones, MLRS, and artillery.
• Claimed Destruction of TOS-2: Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed a Russian TOS-2 "Tosochka" heavy flamethrower system in this region.
• Drone Warfare: Ukrainian drone warfare is reported to be ongoing.
• Claimed Ukrainian Strikes: Ukrainian sources claim to have struck a drone control point.

F. Sumy Oblast

• Confirmed Air Strikes: Russian forces continue to conduct air strikes with guided aerial bombs (KABs).
• Drone Activity: Confirmed.

G. Chernihiv Oblast

• Drone Activity: Confirmed, with drones moving westward.

H. Kyiv Oblast

• Drone Attack: Confirmed drone attack, causing damage to a warehouse and houses in the Boryspil and Brovary districts.
• Drone Activity: Confirmed.

I. Mykolaiv Oblast

• Confirmed Drone Attack: A Shahed drone attack caused damage to critical infrastructure, apartment buildings, shops, and other civilian structures. At least one civilian was injured.
• De-mining Specialists Killed: Three military personnel from the Mine Action Center were killed in an explosion on February 14th.
• Drone Activity: Confirmed.

J. Odesa Oblast

• Confirmed Ballistic Missile Attack: Ballistic missiles targeted Zatoka.
• Explosions Reported: Explosions were reported in the Odesa region, likely due to Russian strikes.
• Missile Threat: A missile threat was reported.

K. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast

• Shelling of Nikopol and Marhanets: Confirmed Russian heavy artillery shelling.
• Drone Activity: Confirmed.
• High-Speed Target: A high-speed target was reported heading towards Dnipropetrovsk.

L. Other Regions

• Kirovohrad Oblast: Drone activity reported.
• Cherkasy Oblast: Drone activity reported.
• Poltava Oblast: Drone activity reported.
• Ternopil Oblast: Drone threat reported.
• Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Drone threat reported, particularly near Starokostiantyniv (Starkon).
• Zhytomyr Oblast: Drone threat reported.
• Rivne Oblast: Drone threat reported.
• Bryansk, Rostov, Volgograd, Kaluga, and Saratov (Russia): All experienced drone activity, explosions, or air raid alerts, confirming continued Ukrainian long-range strike capabilities.
• Smolensk (Russia): Explosions reported, potentially a Ukrainian drone strike deep inside Russia.
• Belgorod: Drone strike on a vehicle.

M. Chernobyl

• Sarcophagus Damage Confirmed: The IAEA confirmed damage to the Chernobyl sarcophagus from a drone strike on February 14th. A 6-meter hole was created, damaging both inner and outer layers of protection, along with some equipment and electrical cables. No radiation leak was reported.

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III. Critical Information Gaps

• Verification of Novosilka Breakthrough: [Extreme Priority] Independent confirmation of the reported Russian breach and establishment of positions within Novosilka is crucial.
• Kursk Region Situation: [Extreme Priority] The full extent of military activity, control of territory, and the veracity of claims regarding incursions, atrocities, and equipment losses must be determined.
• Confirmation of TOS-2 Destruction: [Extreme Priority] Independent confirmation of the claimed destruction of the Russian TOS-2 "Tosochka" is essential.
• Details of US-Russia Talks: [Extreme Priority] Confirmation of the planned meeting in Saudi Arabia and the involvement (or exclusion) of Ukraine is crucial.
• Details of Trump's Peace Plan: The specifics of any potential peace plan and its implications for Ukraine remain unknown.
• Confirmation of Alleged Atrocities: All claims of atrocities and war crimes require independent verification.
• Cause of Explosions in Various Regions: Investigation.
• Fate of Claimed Ukrainian Counterattacks (Multiple Fronts): Assess the success and impact of claimed Ukrainian counterattacks.
• Claimed Strikes on Russian Infrastructure: Verify claims of strikes on energy and military facilities.

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IV. Recommendations (Prioritized)

1. EXTREME PRIORITY: Confirm and Respond to Novosilka Situation (Immediate Action):

   • Immediately deploy reconnaissance assets (drones, satellites, human intelligence) to confirm the Russian presence in Novosilka and assess their strength and positions.
   • Prepare and deploy reinforcements to the area to contain the Russian advance and prevent further breakthroughs.
   • Develop and implement a plan to dislodge the Russian forces from Novosilka, prioritizing the safety of civilians.
   • Increase surveillance of the surrounding areas to detect any further Russian attempts to exploit this breach.

2. EXTREME PRIORITY: Verify and Respond to Pokrovsk Situation (Immediate Action):

   • Maintain intense focus on the Pokrovsk direction, given the extremely high level of combat activity and conflicting reports.
   • Deploy all available resources to confirm or refute claims of Ukrainian success (liberation of Pishchane) and Russian advances.
   • Strengthen Ukrainian defenses and prepare for potential counterattacks.

3. EXTREME PRIORITY: Investigate and Respond to Kursk Region Activity (Immediate Action):

   • Urgently and thoroughly investigate all reports of military activity in the Kursk region.
   • Determine the nature of the activity: Is it a genuine incursion, limited cross-border raids, a Russian disinformation campaign, or internal Russian conflict?
   • Verify all claims of troop presence, territorial control, casualties, and equipment losses.
   • Assess the potential for escalation and prepare accordingly.
   • Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda regarding alleged Ukrainian atrocities.

4. EXTREME PRIORITY: Counter Drone Threats (Nationwide, Continuous):

   • Maintain maximum readiness of air defense systems across all of Ukraine, prioritizing areas under immediate threat (Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Ternopil, Zhytomyr).
   • Deploy all available resources to detect, track, and intercept incoming drones.
   • Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and population centers.
   • Urgently investigate and develop countermeasures against the reported fiber-optic guided drones used by Russia.
   • Enhance Ukrainian drone capabilities for reconnaissance, targeting, and attack, focusing on disrupting Russian logistics, command and control, and artillery positions.

5. EXTREME PRIORITY: Investigate and Respond to Ballistic Missile and Guided Bomb Attacks (Continuous):

   • Maintain constant vigilance for ballistic missile and guided aerial bomb threats.
   • Improve early warning systems and response times.
   • Assess the damage and impact of confirmed attacks (e.g., Zatoka, Sumy, Kharkiv regions).

6. EXTREME PRIORITY: Address Geopolitical Uncertainty and Potential Negotiations (Continuous):

   • Urgently clarify the situation regarding potential US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia.
   • Demand full transparency from the US regarding any negotiations affecting Ukraine's future.
   • Insist on direct Ukrainian participation in any talks that impact its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
   • Coordinate closely with European allies to ensure a unified Western approach.
   • Prepare for various scenarios, including potential pressure to make concessions.

7. HIGH PRIORITY: Verify Claimed Destruction of Russian TOS-2 (Immediate Action):

   • Use all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to confirm or refute the reported destruction of the Russian TOS-2 "Tosochka" heavy flamethrower system.
   • Geolocate the event and determine the type of weapon system involved.
   • Assess the impact of this loss on Russian capabilities in the Pokrovsk direction.

8. HIGH PRIORITY: Address Civilian Infrastructure Protection and Humanitarian Needs (Ongoing):

   • Strengthen defenses around critical infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, in areas frequently targeted (e.g., Mykolaiv, Odesa).
   • Provide immediate assistance to civilians affected by shelling, air strikes, and drone attacks.
   • Ensure access to essential services (food, water, shelter, medical care, heat).
   • Prepare for potential mass casualty events.

9. HIGH PRIORITY: Monitor and Exploit Russian Weaknesses (Ongoing):

   • Gather intelligence on Russian troop morale, discipline, supply situation, and training deficiencies.
   • Analyze reports of suicides, desertions, and complaints about leadership.
   • Develop strategies to exploit potential vulnerabilities in Russian forces through information operations and targeted military actions.
   • Address the Sberbank disruption, which may affect logistics.

10. HIGH PRIORITY: Counter Russian Information Warfare (Ongoing):

    • Continue to actively counter Russian disinformation and propaganda.
    • Highlight Russian war crimes and violations of international law.
    • Promote accurate information through reliable media channels and international platforms.
    • Publicly refute false claims, such as the alleged presence of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region.

11. MEDIUM PRIORITY: Address Internal Ukrainian Issues (Ongoing):

    • Address concerns about forceful mobilization practices and potential tensions within the military.
    • Monitor morale and take steps to improve it where necessary.

12. MEDIUM PRIORITY: Continue Diplomatic Engagement with Europe (Ongoing):

    • Capitalize on growing concerns within Europe about reliance on the US and the need for greater European strategic autonomy.
    • Push for increased European military and financial support for Ukraine.
    • Explore the potential for European troop deployments post-conflict.
    • Work with Germany on the "Unity Hub" initiative and other forms of support.
    • Engage with European allies to coordinate a unified response to any potential shift in US policy towards Belarus.

13. ADDRESS CHERNOBYL SARCOPHAGUS DAMAGE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

    • Work with international partners (IAEA) to assess the damage to the Chernobyl sarcophagus and ensure its integrity.
    • Demand an explanation from Russia regarding the alleged drone strike, and increase international pressure to prevent further military activity near nuclear facilities.

14. ADDRESS REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence, signals intelligence) to confirm or refute the reported Russian advances.
    • Prioritize verification of claims regarding NOVOOCHERETOVATOE, ZELENIVKA, ULAQLY, and the area near the N15 highway.
    • Assess the strategic implications of these potential advances, particularly the potential outflanking maneuver near BURLATSKOYE.
    • Prepare for potential counter-offensives and adjust force deployments accordingly.

15. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES):

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The military situation in Ukraine is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS, FLUID, AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The MASSIVE, COORDINATED RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK, the INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (with CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES), the POTENTIAL FOR US-RUSSIA TALKS WITHOUT UKRAINIAN PARTICIPATION, and the CONFIRMED DAMAGE TO THE CHERNOBYL SARCOPHAGUS are the MOST IMMEDIATE AND CRITICAL CONCERNS. IMMEDIATE, DECISIVE, AND COORDINATED ACTION is required on all fronts, with a particular emphasis on AIR DEFENSE, VERIFICATION OF KEY CLAIMS, COUNTERING RUSSIAN ADVANCES, ADDRESSING GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTY, and RESPONDING TO THE CHERNOBYL INCIDENT. The potential for further escalation remains EXTREMELY HIGH.