Military Intelligence Daily Summary - Ukrainian Perspective

Prepared for: Ukrainian High Command Prepared by: AI Military Intelligence Assistant Date: February 23, 2025 Time: 10:30 UTC Reporting Period: 10:01 UTC - 10:30 UTC, February 23, 2025

I. Executive Summary

This reporting period saw a continuation of intense fighting, with confirmed Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast and alarming reports of a possible major incursion into Russian territory (Kursk Oblast). Key developments include:

1. Confirmed Russian Advances in Donetsk Oblast (Extreme Priority):

   • Russian MoD officially confirmed the capture of Ulakly and Novoandreevka. This corroborates previous reports and signifies a tactical success for Russian forces.
   • Additional reports, with tactical context, suggest a developing cauldron near Konstantynopil and Russian preparations for a potential assault on Pokrovsk.
     • Russian forces are reportedly 11km from the border of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
     • Reports suggest Russian advances towards Kotiarivka.
   • Assessment: These developments represent a serious deterioration of the Ukrainian defensive position in Donetsk Oblast and require immediate countermeasures.

2. Kursk Oblast Incursion (Extreme Priority):

   • Два майора reports intense fighting along the entire border incursion zone.
   • Russian forces are reportedly making a tactical advance south of Sverdlikovo into Sumy Oblast.
   • Russian sources report over 200 Ukrainian casualties in the past 24 hours in Kursk Oblast.
   • Assessment: The situation is highly volatile and requires urgent verification. The reported high casualties, if confirmed, indicate a significant and potentially escalatory Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory. This could broaden the conflict and strain Ukrainian resources.

3. Continued Russian Aerial Attacks (High Priority):

   • Confirmed ballistic missile strike on the Sumy community, impacting outside populated areas.
   • Assessment: Demonstrates continued Russian willingness and capability to strike targets across Ukraine.

4. Ongoing US-Ukraine Tensions (High Priority):

   • Ukraine is reportedly refusing to create a US $500 million fund for a mineral agreement.
   • Reports highlight a potential major shift in US policy under a Trump administration, with a transactional approach to aid.
   • Assessment: The situation remains highly precarious for Ukraine, with potential implications for future US aid and support.

5. Other Reports (Low-Medium Priority):

• Russia is deploying more "Lancet" drones.

II. Key Developments and Assessments by Area/Domain

A. Military Operations

1. Donetsk Oblast (Extreme Priority):

   • Confirmed Russian Advances: Capture of Ulakly and Novoandreevka is confirmed by multiple Russian sources, including the MoD. This is a major tactical loss for Ukraine.
   • Developing Cauldron: Reports of a developing cauldron near Konstantynopil, with Russian forces advancing from the north and south, are highly concerning.
   • Pokrovsk Threat: Russian forces are reportedly securing flanks in preparation for a potential assault on Pokrovsk. This is a major strategic objective for Russia.
   • Recommendations:
     • Urgently reinforce Ukrainian defenses around Pokrovsk and Konstantynopil.
     • Deploy anti-tank weaponry and MANPADS to counter potential Russian armored thrusts.
     • Prepare for urban warfare in key settlements.
     • Establish secondary defensive lines to prevent breakthroughs.
     • Assess the feasibility of counterattacks, but only if resources and conditions allow.
     • Deploy reconnaissance assets to track Russian troop movements and identify potential attack vectors.
     • Confirm the situation in Novoocheretuvate and Burlatske.

2. Kursk Oblast (Russia) (Extreme Priority):

   • Intense Fighting: Reports of intense fighting along the entire incursion zone.
   • Russian Tactical Advance: Claimed Russian advance south of Sverdlikovo into Sumy Oblast.
   • High Ukrainian Casualties (Reported): Russian sources claim over 200 Ukrainian casualties in the past 24 hours.
   • Recommendations:
     • Urgently verify the reported casualty figures and the extent of any Ukrainian incursion.
     • Assess the current situation on the ground and the level of threat posed by any Ukrainian presence.
     • Reinforce border defenses if necessary and prepare for potential further incursions.
     • Develop contingency plans for escalation in this area.

3. Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, Orikhiv, Prydniprovsk, and Huliaipilske Directions (High Priority):

   • The situation in these regions is mostly unchanged, with ongoing skirmishes.

4. Sumy Oblast (High Priority):

   • Confirmed Ballistic Missile Strike: Outside populated areas.
   • Assessment: Demonstrates continued Russian willingness and capability to strike targets in the region.
   • Recommendations:
     • Maintain high air defense readiness.
     • Monitor for further Russian activity.

B. Drone Warfare

1. Continued Use of Drones (High Priority):
   • Assessment: Both sides continue to rely heavily on drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attack.
   • Recommendations:
     • Continue to develop and deploy counter-drone measures.
     • Prioritize the destruction of Russian drone launch sites and control centers.

C. Geopolitical Developments

1. US-Ukraine Relations (Extreme Priority):

   • Mineral Deal Tensions: Ukraine reportedly refusing to create a $500 billion fund as part of a mineral agreement.
   • Trump's Position: Reports reinforce the narrative of a potential major shift in US policy under Trump, with a transactional approach to aid and potential demands for resources.
   • Recommendations:
     • Continue urgent diplomatic engagement with US officials.
     • Counter the narrative of a quick resolution requiring Ukrainian concessions.
     • Emphasize the long-term consequences of abandoning Ukraine.
     • Explore all possible avenues to secure continued support.
     • Accelerate efforts to diversify weapons sources and boost domestic production.

2. Potential US-Russia Meeting (Medium Priority):

   • Assessment: The situation is unclear, with conflicting reports about a potential meeting in Riyadh.
   • Recommendations:
     • Monitor the situation closely and gather further intelligence.

3. European Developments (Medium Priority):

   • Assessment: The EU continues to express concern about the situation in Ukraine.
   • Recommendations:
     • Maintain close communication with EU officials.
     • Explore potential opportunities for increased support.

III. Critical Information Gaps

• Extent of Ukrainian Incursion into Kursk Oblast: The scale, objectives, and current status of any Ukrainian presence in the Kursk region remain unclear.
• Details of US-Russia Negotiations: The specific agreements reached in Riyadh, the content of ongoing discussions, and the degree of Ukrainian involvement (or exclusion) remain largely unknown.
• Trump's Plans: The specifics of any peace plan being developed by Trump advisors and the likelihood of Trump meeting with Putin need further investigation.
• Ukrainian Air Defense Capabilities: The exact status of Ukrainian air defense systems, particularly Patriot missiles, and the impact of reported shortages require accurate assessment.
• Claims of Atrocities and War Crimes: All claims, particularly those related to civilian casualties and alleged atrocities, require independent verification.

IV. Overall Assessment

The situation in Ukraine remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in Donetsk Oblast, coupled with the INTENSE FIGHTING and POTENTIAL INCRUSION in the Kursk region, represent a MAJOR ESCALATION of the conflict. The ONGOING TENSIONS with the US and the UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING FUTURE AID add further COMPLEXITY AND RISK. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to COUNTER RUSSIAN ADVANCES, ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL BORDER CRISIS, MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE READINESS, and SECURE CONTINUED INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, EFFECTIVE ANALYSIS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC ACTION are ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL.