Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 14, 2025, 16:25 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Luhansk regions. Russian forces maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in Donetsk, where they have captured Shevchenko, Kurakhove, Yantarne, and a significant portion of Toretsk, advancing towards Pokrovsk and along the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. The situation in Toretsk is dire, with Ukrainian sources reporting that only a small part of the city remains under Ukrainian control and Russian sources claiming the liberation of the city is almost complete. The highway between Dymytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut, and one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro has been reportedly cut off by Russian forces. In the Kursk region, a major Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses on both sides. Russian forces have regained territory and are making advances in the Sudzha area, including a significant breakthrough near Kositsa. They have also captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with widespread activity across multiple regions, including new reports of drone activity in Chernihiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight, with 31 drones classified as decoys. There are reports indicating drone attacks on Voronezh, Kursk, Tambov, Saratov, and Lipetsk in Russia. A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed, with the fire at the oil depot intensifying. Ukrainian forces conducted the most massive strike yet, hitting targets up to 1100 km inside Russia. A Ukrainian strike on a Russian command post in Novohrodivka is also reported. The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia, while the US has imposed new sanctions on Russia. Ten EU countries have called for a complete ban on Russian gas imports. The Armenian Foreign Minister is set to sign a strategic partnership document with the US.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant. DeepState has officially acknowledged the loss of Kurakhove for Ukrainian forces. 16 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russian forces near Kurakhovo.
• Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city. Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine. Ukrainian forces are using a captured T-80 tank, equipped with additional drone protection, in the defense of Toretsk. A military hospital in Toretsk is reportedly on fire.
• Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction towards Udachne, Kotlyno, Novosergievka, Zverevo, Lysovka, and Yelizavetovka. They have advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne. Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies that Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement. Russian forces have advanced to within 6.5 km of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Fighting is ongoing near Kotlyne, and Russian forces are advancing toward Novoserhiivka. They are advancing towards Pokrovsk along the T 0406 road and are less than 10 kilometers from the city. The highway between Dymytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut.
• Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko and Yantarne. Russian forces have captured Peschanoye, confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
• Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis. An attack by Russian forces near Malinivka resulted in an advance of over 2.5 km towards a road junction on the Krasnoarmiisk-Konstantinovka highway.
• Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. Over the past day, there were 184 combat clashes, 77 of them in the Pokrovsk direction.
• Chasiv Yar: A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. Urban warfare is ongoing, with the enemy attempting to advance on the industrial complex. Russian forces report they have dislodged Ukrainian forces from the territory of the refractory plant in Chasiv Yar and driven them into the private sector to the southwest of the plant.
• Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne. Near Slavyanka, Russian units have cleared several landings to the north and advanced towards the road to Andreevka, also attacking along the Stavkovaya gully. An attack by Russian forces near Novyi Komar resulted in an advance of up to 1.5 km on the northern flank of Velyka Novosilka. The Ukrainian General Staff reports a difficult situation along the entire frontline and forced retreats to new defensive lines in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Video evidence shows that Russian forces are using thermobaric weapons in the area.
• Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Ukrainian forces report that they have destroyed a Russian BTR-82A, two infantry fighting vehicles, and a T-72 tank using FPV drones.
• Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk. Ukrainian General Staff reports another successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Novohrodivka, Donetsk Oblast.
• Airspace Closure Near Horlivka-Yasynuvata Highway: Due to continuous attacks by Ukrainian forces, the highway between Horlivka and Yasynuvata has been temporarily closed to traffic.
• Ballistic Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a ballistic missile threat in the direction of Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region. A nationwide ballistic missile threat has been declared across Ukraine, but it has since been lifted in most regions except for Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv.
• Reports of fighting near Kurakhovo and Andriivka: Ongoing active combat operations in the vicinity of Kurakhovo and Andriivka. Russian forces have successfully targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier using FPV drones.
• Powerful explosion in Kramatorsk: Reports of a powerful explosion in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, with a large plume of smoke visible.
• New: Battles are ongoing for Kotlyno and Udachne, with Russian forces advancing south of Udachne and attacking Ukrainian positions to the east.
• New: Ukrainian forces are attempting to counterattack near Shevchenko.
• New: Fighting is ongoing for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with slow progress reported.
• New: Russian forces are attacking the outskirts of Dmytriv (Myrnohrad).
• New: Russian forces are expanding their control near the road junction of Yelyzavetivka - Nova Poltavka - Tarasivka - Baranivka.
• New: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 166 combat clashes in the past 24 hours, with almost half of them in the Pokrovsk direction.
• New: Russian forces are reportedly using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions.
• New: Russian forces have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro, specifically the road through Mezhova.
• Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two. An air raid alert has been issued in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces have liberated Neskuchne and entered the southern outskirts of Vremivka. They have also taken control of territory south of Velyka Novosilka. The advance along the front is approximately 2 km.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties). The Washington Post reports that if Ukrainian forces withdraw from the Kursk region, 60,000 Russian troops will follow them into Ukraine and capture more territory. Zelensky stated that the Kursk operation was one of the main victories, not only last year, but throughout the war. The intensity of the fighting in the Kursk region is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted five counterattacks, all of which were repelled.
• Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, making advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. They have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements, including Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Russian forces have reportedly occupied the Long Forest on the heights on the western bank of the Zherebets River. Russian forces, attempting to eliminate the "Ukrainian bridgehead" in the Kursk region, recently crossed into the northern part of the Sumy Oblast, advancing west of the village of Zhuravka.
• Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Active fighting is taking place in the area of Sudzha. An attack by the Russian Armed Forces in the settlement of Russkoye Porechnoye by an infantry unit was reported. The assault group was shelled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Russian Armed Forces advanced more than 2 km and reached the advanced positions near the village of Kositsa.
• Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective. Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters to conduct airstrikes in the region. Calculation of FPV drones of the Rubikon center destroyed the Ukrainian self-propelled guns in the Kursk direction. In the Kursk region, Primorsky paratroopers destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone.
• Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
• Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present. Paratroopers from the 106th Airborne Division are conducting active assault operations in the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
• Russian advances on western and northern flanks: Russian forces have advanced on the western and northern flanks in the Kursk region, penetrating up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
• Liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka: The pro-Ukrainian analytical resource Deep State has acknowledged the liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka by Russian forces.
• Cleanup of Pogrebki and assault on Makhnovka: The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka.
• Russian advance in Sudzha area: Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa.
• Reinforcement of Kositsa: The enemy is attempting to reinforce the defense of Kositsa with additional equipment and personnel.
• Situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki: The situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki remains unchanged.
• Destruction of enemy armored personnel carrier: The enemy attempted to attack with two armored personnel carriers near Makhnovka but was destroyed by an FPV drone.
• Clearing of Berdin: Russian forces report that they have cleared Berdin of Ukrainian forces and that Ukrainian forces are retreating to the forests.
• Russian offensive near Leonidovo: Russian forces are continuing their offensive near Leonidovo, advancing towards Viktorivka and Nikolsky.
• Fighting near Zamostye: Russian forces are attempting to reach the outskirts of Sudzha, with fighting ongoing near Zamostye.
• Capture of two North Korean soldiers: Ukrainian sources report that two North Korean soldiers have been captured in the Kursk region and taken to Kyiv. Video evidence allegedly shows the bodies of approximately 20 North Korean soldiers. Ukrainian forces also report repelling an attack by North Korean soldiers. Ukrainian President Zelensky's Telegram channel reported that Ukraine is ready to exchange captured North Korean soldiers for Ukrainian soldiers held by Russia.
• Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death. This incident has been confirmed by a Ukrainian military spokesperson.
• Casualties: Over 350 Ukrainian military personnel were reportedly lost in the Kursk direction during the day, with five Ukrainian counterattacks repulsed. Since the beginning of the assault, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost more than 50,000 soldiers. Losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk direction amounted to more than 460 soldiers, 3 tanks and 22 armored fighting vehicles, 3 Ukrainian counterattacks were repelled.
• Positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka: Reports of positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km.
• Night Operations: Russian forces targeted the Sumy Oblast with airstrikes and Geran drones.
• Disrupting Troop Redeployment: Russian artillery disrupted a Ukrainian troop redeployment to the Kursk region, eliminating 3 armored vehicles and 20 personnel.
• New: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
• New: Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region.
• New: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian defenders repelled 16 enemy attacks in Kurshchyna, with six combat clashes ongoing.
• New: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports significant Ukrainian losses in the region during the day and since the beginning of hostilities.
• New: Video evidence of Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade.
• New: Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold.
• New: Russian sources claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days, with 14 Ukrainian soldiers captured near Berdin.
• New: 26 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered after a failed counterattack, according to Russian sources.
• New: Almost 30 Ukrainian paratroopers were captured after a failed counterattack in Volchansk.
• New: Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers have been taken prisoner.
• New: Ukrainian airborne troops from the 95th Air Assault Brigade are using drones to attack Russian forces in Pogrebki.
• New: A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
• New: Analysis of an image showing a map overlay of the Kursk region, with red areas indicating Russian-controlled territory. Thermal drone footage on the right side of the image shows potential troop or vehicle presence. The image suggests an offensive movement from Kositsa towards Russkoye Porechnoye.
• New: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region.
• New: A German Leopard 2A6 tank was destroyed in the Kursk region.
• New: Video from "Colonelcassad" details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye. The liberation of these settlements may be announced this week. There is also a battle for Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, with the enemy continuing to send reserves despite heavy losses.
• New: Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself.
• New: Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region.
• New: Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
• New: Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment. The assault was carried out in six waves. The Ukrainian forces successfully repelled the attack, inflicting significant losses on the enemy. The video shows footage of destroyed Russian tanks and armored vehicles, as well as captured Russian soldiers.
• New: Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka. The video shows the soldier, speaking in broken Russian, ordering the women to leave the house, claiming that it is now his property. The women protest, but the soldier insists that they must leave.
• New: Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
• New: The message states that the operation to neutralize the enemy in the Kursk region continues.
• New: A Ukrainian counterattack involving about 50 units of equipment was repelled by Ukrainian forces near Viktorivka. The attack was carried out in six waves. Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed a significant amount of enemy equipment and inflicted heavy casualties.
• New: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU has lost 90 EW stations.
• New: Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
• New: South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region of Russia. The total estimated losses among North Korean troops in the region are around 3,000, with 300 killed and 2,700 wounded.
• New: Ukrainian border guards report destroying a Russian armored personnel carrier north of Sumy. This indicates continued fighting in the region and successful Ukrainian counterattacks.
• New: "Colonelcassad" reports on the situation in the Kursk region as of January 14, 2025. Key points include:
  • Russian forces have inflicted significant losses on Ukrainian formations, including tank, mechanized, air assault, and territorial defense brigades.
  • Three Ukrainian counterattacks have been repelled.
  • Russian forces have targeted Ukrainian personnel and equipment in various locations in the Kursk and Sumy regions.
  • Ukrainian losses for the day are reported as over 460 personnel, 3 tanks, 2 APCs, 22 armored fighting vehicles, 18 vehicles, 6 artillery pieces, and mortars.
  • Total Ukrainian losses in the Kursk direction since the beginning of hostilities are estimated at over 51,900 personnel, 303 tanks, 229 IFVs, 168 APCs, 1,561 armored fighting vehicles, 1,474 vehicles, 364 artillery pieces, 44 MLRS launchers (including 13 HIMARS and 6 MLRS), 16 SAM launchers, 8 transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 14 counter-battery warfare radars, 4 air defense radars, and 30 units of engineering and other materiel.
• New: Ukrainian border guards use drones to destroy a Russian armored vehicle north of Sumy. This highlights the continued effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare in targeting Russian armor.
• New: A video from the Telegram channel "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" shows Ukrainian border guards destroying a Russian armored vehicle using drones north of Sumy. This demonstrates the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare in targeting and destroying Russian military equipment. The use of drones for reconnaissance and targeting is highlighted, indicating a high level of coordination and technological capability.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna. Russian forces are advancing south of Kupyansk, potentially cutting off Ukrainian retreat routes.
• Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
• Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis, and Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Veterynarne.
• A video from "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel: This video reportedly shows the destruction of a Ukrainian BMP CV-90 in the Kupyansk direction. The vehicle was reportedly carrying ammunition and was destroyed by Russian forces, resulting in casualties among the Ukrainian crew.
• Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs (KAB) to attack targets in the Kharkiv region. This indicates continued Russian air activity in the area.
• Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km.
• New: Ukrainian forces report burning a Russian T-80 tank in the Kharkiv region. This demonstrates continued Ukrainian resistance and successful targeting of Russian armor.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River). Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove. Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny. Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses. Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka, according to pro-Russian sources. Russian forces report that they have expanded their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Russian forces report that they have advanced beyond Nadiya and are moving towards the border of the Luhansk People's Republic and the Kharkiv region.
• Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction, according to pro-Russian sources.
• Video Evidence of Russian Operations in Krasnolimansk Direction: A new video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel shows Russian forces from the 144th Motorized Rifle Division operating in the Krasnolimansk direction. The video showcases drone strikes on various military and civilian vehicles, including armored vehicles (likely BMPs or BTRs) and a truck. The use of thermal imaging suggests that the drones are being used for target acquisition in low-visibility conditions. The video also indicates the use of precision weapons, as evidenced by the successful strikes on the vehicles. The footage is likely being used for propaganda purposes to demonstrate the effectiveness of Russian drone warfare.
• New: "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports that on the Krasnolimansk direction, the 144th Motorized Rifle Division continues to advance, expanding its bridgehead on the western bank of the Zherebets River. The report highlights the efforts to isolate the combat area, preventing Ukrainian forces from rotating troops and delivering supplies. This is leading to the imminent destruction of the remaining Ukrainian resistance in Terny. The report also mentions that Ukrainian commanders are deploying personnel to positions already occupied by Russian forces, resulting in significant losses for Ukrainian troops.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Drone Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
• Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days.
• Drone Attack on Kazan Confirmed: A drone attack on Kazan has been confirmed, with reports of a large fire near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant.
• New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare. ZALA has introduced a new compact and lightweight launch system for the "Lancet" series, specifically for the largest type, "Product 51".
• Drone Strikes: Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region. Ukrainian border guards reportedly struck a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk using drones. The "Hart" brigade carried out the operation. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones. The "Phoenix" unit of the "Revenge" brigade repelled an assault by occupiers near Kurdyumivka in the Bakhmut area. Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations. Ukrainian forces targeted and damaged a Russian T-80 tank with a drone. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator successfully targeting and destroying a Ukrainian 155-mm self-propelled howitzer M109 in the Kursk direction.
• Drone Shootdown: The 11th Brigade of the National Guard, specifically the "Samosud" crew, reportedly shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone over Mykolaiv. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight, with 31 classified as "decoys".
• Continued drone attacks: Reports of numerous drones across various regions, including Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Sumy, Zhytomyr, and Chernihiv Oblasts. Reports indicate drone activity in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Additionally, reports suggest drone attacks on Voronezh, Kursk, Tambov, Saratov, and Lipetsk in Russia.
• Drone attack on Tula Oblast: The Tula region is reportedly under a massive attack by Ukrainian drones. Air defenses are active, and preliminary reports indicate that aerial targets have been destroyed. There are no reports of casualties. The new messages detail a battle in Tula Oblast, with the Russian army repelling an enemy attack in Aleksin. Videos of the engagement have been shared. 16 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor.
• Iran's Drone Capabilities: A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel showcases a large number of Iranian drones, reportedly with a range of over 2000 km and stealth capabilities. This suggests a significant enhancement of Iran's drone arsenal and a potential increase in the threat posed to regional adversaries. The video highlights Iran's ability to conduct sustained drone operations, potentially including precision strikes, loitering munitions, and widespread reconnaissance.
• Russian FPV Drone Strikes: Videos from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel show Russian forces using FPV drones to target Ukrainian equipment in the Pokrovsk and Kharkiv directions. The videos, watermarked with "СУДНАЯ НОЧЬ" (Judgement Night) and linked to the "sudoplatov_official" Telegram channel, suggest a coordinated effort to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and troop movements during night operations.
• New: Ukrainian border guards use drones to destroy a Russian armored vehicle north of Sumy. This highlights the continued effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare in targeting Russian armor.
• New: A video from the Telegram channel "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" shows Ukrainian border guards destroying a Russian armored vehicle using drones north of Sumy. This demonstrates the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare in targeting and destroying Russian military equipment. The use of drones for reconnaissance and targeting is highlighted, indicating a high level of coordination and technological capability.

Other Significant Developments

• Diplomatic: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia is ready to discuss security guarantees for the country currently called Ukraine, but the Eurasian context will be paramount in any agreements. Lavrov also criticized Germany and Japan for their subservience to the US.
• Personnel: Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezuglaya reported that personnel from the Air Force, including technicians and mechanics, are being transferred to the infantry, while mobile fire groups are being reduced. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine clarified that there are no plans to transfer critically needed engineering and aviation specialists of the Air Force to infantry units. They emphasized that the Air Force is increasing its technical and flight personnel. However, some categories of Air Force personnel, after training, are being reassigned to reinforce Ground Forces and Airborne Assault Forces due to the difficult situation on the front and the shortage of infantry in many areas. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has prohibited the transfer of specialists in high-tech fields and those trained abroad on foreign weapons systems.
• Industrial Sabotage: Ukrainian forces confirmed a strike on a chemical plant in Bryansk, Russia, which produces explosives and components for various weapons systems. Ukrainian forces conducted a strike on the Saratov oil refinery, causing a fire.
• Attempted Poisoning: Reports of an attempted poisoning of employees at a defense enterprise in the Yaroslavl region, allegedly orchestrated by Ukrainian special services.
• Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two. An air raid alert has been issued in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Commemorative Coins: Reports of a new series of commemorative coins issued by the Republican Center for Unmanned Systems named after Vladimir Zhoga, highlighting the importance of drone warfare.
• New EU Sanctions: The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia.
• Mobilization of Prisoners: The Ukrainian government has approved a procedure for mobilizing prisoners for military service.
• Strategic Partnership Agreement: Armenia is set to sign a strategic partnership agreement with the United States.
• Armenia-EU Relations: The Armenian government has approved a draft law to begin the process of joining the European Union.
• Alleged Terrorist Attack Plot: US intelligence sources warned of a potential Russian plot to use explosives on cargo planes, prompting a message to Putin from the White House. The plot, allegedly aimed at causing mass casualties, was reportedly thwarted.
• Impeachment Threat: The Slovak opposition plans to hold a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Robert Fico, citing his recent visit to Moscow and other foreign policy actions.
• Strategic Implications: The continued Russian advances in the Donetsk region, particularly towards Pokrovsk, necessitate urgent reinforcement and strategic reevaluation by Ukrainian forces. The extensive use of drones by both sides underscores the need for enhanced counter-drone capabilities. The targeting of critical infrastructure highlights the need for enhanced protection measures. The stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region and the significant Russian breakthrough near Sudzha indicate a shift in momentum in favor of Russian forces. The participation of North Korean soldiers, if confirmed, could indicate a broadening of the conflict. The ongoing drone attacks deep inside Russian territory demonstrate Ukraine's ability to project power and disrupt Russian logistics and morale. The transfer of Ukrainian Air Force personnel to infantry roles and the reduction of mobile fire groups, as reported by Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezuglaya, indicate a significant shift in Ukraine's military strategy. This move suggests that Ukraine may be facing a shortage of infantry troops and is prioritizing ground operations over air defense. The reduction of mobile fire groups could leave some regions more vulnerable to Russian air attacks, while the transfer of technical personnel could impact the operational readiness of Ukraine's Air Force. The reported strike on the Saratov oil refinery by Ukrainian forces and confirmation of other strikes by the Ukrainian Security Service and Defense Forces highlight Ukraine'