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Military Intelligence Daily Summary - Ukrainian Perspective

Prepared for: Ukrainian High Command Prepared by: AI Military Intelligence Assistant Date: February 22, 2025 Time: 09:56 UTC Reporting Period: 09:27 UTC - 09:56 UTC, February 22, 2025

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I. Executive Summary

This reporting period was marked by continued escalation on multiple fronts, both militarily and diplomatically. The most pressing issues remain:

1. Relentless Russian Air and Missile Attacks: Continued, widespread attacks across Ukraine.
2. Confirmed and Reported Russian Advances: Significant Russian progress, particularly around Kupyansk and in the Zaporizhzhia region.
3. Heightened Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing US-Ukraine crisis over the minerals deal and Starlink, coupled with reported US-Russia negotiations, continues to pose a grave threat.
4. Reported strike on Russian Infrastructure: Reportedly, a pumping station has been destroyed.
5. Confirmed Russian military success: Russian forces captured Novoliubovka.

The situation remains extremely volatile and critical, demanding immediate and coordinated action.

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II. Key Developments and Assessments

A. Military Operations

1. Air and Missile Attacks (Extreme Priority):

   • Confirmed: Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Previous air raid alert was lifted.
   • Assessment: Continued and intense Russian air activity targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast, requiring maximum air defense readiness.

2. Kupyansk Direction (High Priority):

   • Reported: Russian forces advancing south of Synkivka towards Kucherivka, capturing a forest, and repelling Ukrainian strongholds. Claims of advances towards Hlushkivka and along the Oskil River, with a potential "semi-cauldron" formation.
   • Assessment: Requires urgent verification. Intensified Russian offensive operations, posing a significant threat to Ukrainian forces. Potential encirclement is a major concern.

3. Zaporizhzhia Region (High Priority):

   • Reported: Russian forces improved their positions in Pyatikhatki, with ongoing fighting in the western part.
   • Assessment: Requires urgent verification. Indicates further Russian advances, demonstrating continued efforts to expand territorial control.

4. Novoliubovka, Luhansk Region (High Priority):

   • Confirmed: Multiple Russian sources report that Russian forces have captured Novoliubovka.
   • Assessment: This represents a confirmed tactical gain for Russia.

5. Dnipropetrovsk Region (High Priority)

   • Reported: Explosion on Rudenka Street, Dnipro, likely due to a technical malfunction.
   • Assessment: While likely not a direct military attack, highlights strain on infrastructure.
   • Reported: Russian forces struck a logistics center.
   • Assessment: Requires verification.

B. Drone Warfare

1. Ukrainian Drone Strikes (High Priority):

   • Reported: Ukrainian drone strike successfully disrupted Russian logistics.
   • Assessment: Confirms Ukrainian drone warfare capability and focus on disrupting Russian logistics.
   • Reported: Ukrainian drones attacked and disabled the "Novovelichkovskaya" oil pumping station in Krasnodar Krai, Russia.
   • Assessment: If confirmed, this is a significant Ukrainian strike inside Russia, disrupting oil supplies.

2. Ukrainian Counter-Drone Operations (Medium Priority):

   • Reported: Ukrainian FPV drone successfully intercepted and destroyed a Russian FPV drone near Kupyansk.
   • Assessment: Demonstrates Ukrainian counter-drone capabilities and ongoing drone warfare.
   • Reported: SUNSTRIKE unit of 82nd Air Assault Brigade shot down 21 Russian reconnaissance drones.
   • Assessment: Highlights Ukrainian counter-drone efforts. Requires verification.

C. Geopolitical Developments

1. US-Ukraine Relations (Extreme Priority):

   • Reported: Second phone call in 1.5 weeks between Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha and US Secretary of State Rubio, focusing on a "just peace."
   • Assessment: Indicates intense diplomatic engagement, likely addressing concerns about US support and the minerals deal.

2. Russian Ministry of Defence (High Priority):

   • Reported: Significant claims.
   • Assessment: The MoD is making an effort to display positive results. These claims require verification.

3. US-Russia Relations (Medium Priority):

   • Reported: US to present UN General Assembly resolution on regulating the Ukraine conflict on February 24th.
   • Assessment: Highlights US diplomatic efforts, but specific content and goals need verification.
   • Reported: European allies concerned about sharing intelligence with US due to fears of leaks to Trump administration and Russia.
   • Assessment: Highlights potential fractures in intelligence sharing within the Western alliance.

D. Other

1. Rostov-on-Don Warehouse Fire (Low Priority):

   • Confirmed: Large fire at a warehouse, not directly linked to military operations.
   • Assessment: Highlights potential vulnerabilities in Russian infrastructure, but no immediate military impact.

2. Russian Military Leadership (Medium Priority):

   • Confirmed: Chief of Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, inspected the Southern Group of Forces.
   • Assessment: Indicates active command and control, with a focus on the southern front, potentially preparing for further offensive actions.

3. Alleged US Military Leadership Changes (High Priority):

   • Reported: Trump reportedly replaced the head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Charles Brown, with Lieutenant General Dan Kane.
   • Assessment: Requires immediate and careful verification through official channels. If true, this is a major shift with potential implications for US policy.

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III. Recommendations

1. Verify Reported Russian Advances (Extreme Priority, Immediate Action):

   • Urgently deploy all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute reported Russian advances near Kupyansk and in Zaporizhzhia region (Pyatikhatki).
   • Prioritize confirming the situation around the potential "semi-cauldron" near Kupyansk.

2. Maintain Air Defense Readiness (Extreme Priority, Continuous Action):

   • Maintain high alert for further Russian air and missile attacks, particularly guided bomb attacks.

3. Address US-Ukraine Tensions and Starlink Threat (Extreme Priority, Immediate Diplomatic Action):

   • Continue high-level diplomatic engagement with US officials, emphasizing Ukraine's commitment to a just peace and addressing concerns about US support.
   • Urgently clarify the status of the minerals agreement and verify reports of a potential Starlink cutoff.
   • Develop contingency plans for potential disruptions to communications and other US-provided support.

4. Verify and Assess Reported Ukrainian Drone Strike on Russian Oil Infrastructure (High Priority, Immediate Action):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to confirm or refute the reported SBU drone strike on the "Novovelichkovskaya" oil pumping station.
   • Assess the impact on RUSSIAN OIL SUPPLIES and LOGISTICS.

5. Investigate Reported US Military Leadership Changes (High Priority, Immediate Action):

   • Use all available channels to confirm or refute the reported change in US military leadership.
   • Assess the potential impact on US-Ukraine military cooperation and support.

6. Monitor and Respond to Russian Diplomatic Efforts (Medium Priority, Ongoing):

   • Analyze the content and goals of the proposed US UN resolution.
   • Prepare a diplomatic response and engage with international partners.

7. Maintain all Previous Recommendations (Adjusted Priorities):

   • All other recommendations from the previous report remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

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The situation remains extremely critical and dynamic. The confirmed Russian capture of Novoliubovka and the reported advances near Kupyansk are immediate military concerns. The ongoing US-Ukraine tensions, particularly the Starlink threat, pose a grave risk to Ukrainian military operations and require immediate diplomatic action. Rapid intelligence gathering, verification of reports, and coordinated military and diplomatic efforts are essential.