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Daily Intelligence Briefing - Ukraine: January 10, 2025, 15:33 UTC

Executive Summary

Today's intelligence reveals a critical and rapidly evolving military situation in Ukraine. Russian forces are pressing their advantage in the Donetsk region, particularly around Kurakhove, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk, while the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kursk has stalled, incurring heavy losses. Drone warfare continues to be a defining feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing them extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Reports suggest Russia is deploying new, more advanced drones, resistant to electronic warfare.

Geopolitical tensions are heightened, with potential meetings between key leaders and shifting stances on international support for Ukraine. The economic and humanitarian impacts of the conflict are also becoming more pronounced.

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Military Developments

Donetsk Region

• Kurakhove: Russian forces maintain control over most of Kurakhove. Ukrainian forces are confined to the western part, including the thermal power plant. The city is considered "factually lost."
• Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical, with Ukrainian control reduced to less than 15%. Intense fighting continues, with Russian forces attempting to capture a thermal power plant.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, making progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. The "Ot ভারতবর্ষে" group is actively engaging Ukrainian forces and advancing towards Pokrovsk.
• Shevchenko and Ivanivka: Russian forces have captured both settlements.
• Other Advances: Russian forces are making further gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetivka, Pisky, Dachne, Udalny, Kotlyne, Zverevo, Zelene, Lysovka, and Mirolyubovka. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlivka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka.
• Intense Fighting: 192 combat clashes have been reported since the beginning of the day, concentrated in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions.
• Chasiv Yar: Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant," with Russian forces claiming new positions and an advance of up to 1.5 km.
• Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Fierce battles are occurring near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka.
• Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces report repelling assaults near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with estimated casualties up to 48,000.
• Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations near Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina, with advances near Novaya Sorochina.
• Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, and Novaya Sorochina. Russian forces are making small advances in Pogrebki. Fighting continues near Berdin and Malaya Loknya.
• New Russian Advances: Russian forces are making advances in the area between Guyevo and Kurilovka and the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. They have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
• Reinforcements and Reserves: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have arrived in the region. Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region.
• Makhnovka, Sverdlikovo, and Lebedevka: Heavy fighting continues near Makhnovka. Paratroopers from the 106th Airborne Division are conducting active assault operations in the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
• Casualties and Losses: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports significant losses for Ukrainian forces, including over 50,310 troops, 294 tanks, and various other military equipment since the beginning of hostilities in the region. A German Leopard 2A6 tank was reportedly destroyed.
• 10-Kilometer Breakthrough: Russian forces have reportedly made a 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye. They have also advanced on the western and northern flanks, penetrating up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna, expanding their bridgehead south of Dvorechnaya.
• Ukrainian Stabilization: Ukrainian forces have reportedly stabilized the situation near Kruhliakivka and Kolisnykivka.
• 3rd Assault Brigade: The 3rd Assault Brigade is reportedly engaging Russian forces on the outskirts of Kharkiv.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces are developing success in Ivanovka and advancing near Makeevka. They have also expanded their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Drone Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions.
• Engels Attack: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed, with the fire intensifying.
• New Russian Drone Technology: Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare.
• Drone Movements: Reports indicate drone movements across Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson oblasts.
• Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defenses engaged a massive Russian drone attack, reportedly destroying 41 out of 64 drones overnight, including Shahed and decoy drones.
• Ukrainian Drone Capabilities: Ukrainian forces report their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
• Drone Strikes: Ukrainian forces successfully employed drones to target Russian infantry, vehicles, and equipment, including a T-90 tank, an ammunition depot, and a 2S7 Pion self-propelled howitzer.
• Drone Attacks on Russian Territory: Overnight drone attacks on Russian territory were reported, with drones shot down over Saratov, Kursk, Rostov, Belgorod, Bryansk, Krasnodar, Volgograd, and the Azov Sea.
• Drone Threats: Ukrainian Air Force reports continued drone threats across multiple regions, with specific warnings for cities like Dnipro, Poltava, Kremenchuk, and Sumy.

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Geopolitical Developments

• Potential Putin-Scholz Meeting: Reports suggest a possible meeting before February 23rd.
• US Aid: A new US military aid package is expected soon, but full delivery before January 20th is unlikely.
• Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky indicates willingness to limit NATO membership scope and expresses openness to attending Trump's inauguration.
• EU Membership: The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry states Ukraine is ready to replace Hungary in the EU and NATO if Hungary leaves.
• Ramstein Format: The Polish Defense Minister suggests the current format may be ending.
• Armenia-EU Relations: The Armenian government has approved a draft law to begin joining the EU.
• Russia-Armenia Tensions: Russia is reportedly blackmailing Armenia with energy and food prices, and reduced exports, if it withdraws from the CSTO.
• Trump's Stance: Trump acknowledges Biden's "mistakes" in negotiations regarding Ukraine's potential NATO membership. His team reportedly stopped pushing for a truce, intending to wait until Ukraine uses most allocated aid before returning to negotiations.
• UK-Ukraine Cooperation: The UK will provide Ukraine with 30,000 drones, and discussions on deploying a peacekeeping contingent are planned during PM Sunak's upcoming visit.
• Germany's Support: Germany will transfer additional missiles for Iris-T air defense systems to Ukraine.
• US-Egypt Agreement: Reports suggest the US has reached an agreement with Egypt to participate in attacks against Yemen in exchange for economic and military aid.
• Hungary-EU Relations: Hungary will block Ukraine's EU accession due to the termination of Russian gas and oil transit.
• Poland-Ukraine Relations: A Polish presidential candidate stated he does not see Ukraine in the EU and NATO until "civilizational issues" are resolved.
• US Sanctions: The US has imposed sanctions on Antal Rogán, the head of the Hungarian Prime Minister's Office, and on 13 Russian citizens, over 30 oil service companies, and is preparing sanctions against 180 vessels, dozens of traders, two large oil companies, and some top managers of the Russian oil industry.
• Poland's Stance on Netanyahu: Poland will reportedly not arrest Netanyahu on an ICC warrant if he visits for the Auschwitz liberation anniversary.
• EU-Trump Relations: The Head of the European Commission is reportedly trying to arrange a meeting with Donald Trump before his inauguration.
• Japan's Sanctions: Japan has imposed sanctions on 11 individuals and 29 legal entities from Russia, as well as 3 banks.
• New: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has officially supported the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region.

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Other Significant Developments

• Casualties: Reports indicate significant casualties on both sides, with Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region estimated at up to 48,000.
• Drone Strikes: Confirmed drone strikes on both Ukrainian and Russian territories, including a multi-story building in Kyiv and industrial facilities in Engels.
• Cyber Warfare: Increased use of cyber warfare and electronic warfare is evident.
• Propaganda: Both sides are actively engaged in propaganda efforts, with videos and reports highlighting their successes and the enemy's losses.
• Internal Issues: Reports of low morale, desertion, and internal political maneuvering within both Ukrainian and Russian forces.
• Economic Impact: The conflict is having a significant economic impact on both countries, with disruptions to trade, infrastructure damage, and financial strain.
• Humanitarian Concerns: The conflict continues to cause civilian casualties and displacement, with ongoing humanitarian needs in affected areas.
• International Involvement: Various countries are providing military and financial aid to Ukraine, while others are imposing sanctions on Russia.
• New: The Ukrainian Parliament is considering a bill on the deployment of Ukrainian Armed Forces to other states.
• New: The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is developing a military ID within the "Army+" app.
• New: Russian authorities have begun the confiscation of assets belonging to former minister Abyzov, amounting to nearly 24 billion rubles.
• New: In Poland, mines were discovered at one of IKEA's warehouses.
• New: A group of Ukrainian soldiers from the 117th Brigade, trained in Britain under a program approved by Boris Johnson, are reportedly preparing to enter the battle on the Pokrovsk direction.
• New: China claims a major breakthrough in laser communication "satellite-to-ground," potentially surpassing Elon Musk's Starlink.
• New: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may announce his resignation as leader of the Liberal Party due to internal party pressure and low public support.

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Recommendations

1. Urgently reinforce Toretsk and Pokrovsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize anti-tank units due to the success of Russian armored units.
2. Enhance counter-drone capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian drones, especially those with fiber-optic control systems.
3. Secure critical infrastructure: Enhance protection of critical infrastructure, particularly nuclear power plants and energy facilities.
4. Address troop mobilization challenges: Implement measures to boost morale and address any shortcomings in mobilization efforts.
5. Strengthen international support: Secure further military and financial assistance from international partners, emphasizing the need for advanced weapons systems, including long-range missiles and air defense systems.
6. Counter Russian information operations: Provide accurate and timely information to the public, highlight Ukrainian successes, and exploit internal disagreements within Russian media.
7. Improve logistical preparedness: Ensure the availability of supplies, ammunition, and equipment.
8. Enhance intelligence gathering: Monitor Russian troop movements, identify potential threats, and anticipate future actions.
9. Adapt training and tactics: Continuously train troops on the latest tactics and technologies, focusing on drone warfare and counter-drone measures.
10. Prepare for potential escalation: Develop contingency plans for responding to potential Russian incursions or escalations, particularly along the border regions.
11. Maintain operational security: Emphasize the importance of operational security to prevent intelligence leaks.
12. Prioritize troop welfare: Ensure troops are adequately equipped, supplied, and supported.
13. Develop a clear strategic vision: Align all military operations with a clear strategic vision and long-term objectives.
14. Foster innovation: Encourage innovation and the development of new technologies and tactics.
15. Enhance defenses in Sumy Oblast: Reinforce defenses and prepare for potential incursions.
16. Exploit Russian vulnerabilities: Identify and exploit weaknesses in Russian positions, particularly near Vremivka.
17. Prepare for air attacks: Maintain high alert for air defense systems and coordinate with authorities to ensure civilian safety.
18. Maintain public morale: Provide clear and timely information to address public concerns.
19. Assess the impact of drone attacks: Gather intelligence on the damage caused by drone attacks on Russian territory and exploit any identified vulnerabilities.
20. Strengthen diplomatic efforts: Reaffirm Ukraine's commitment to European integration and maintain a unified front with international allies.
21. Monitor geopolitical developments: Closely watch statements and actions by key figures and assess their impact on international support for Ukraine.
22. Address internal security threats: Investigate sabotage attempts and enhance security around critical infrastructure.
23. Improve troop morale and discipline: Address allegations of misconduct and abuse within both Ukrainian and Russian ranks.
24. Counter information warfare: Respond to disinformation and propaganda efforts.
25. Assess economic impact: Evaluate the impact of the conflict on the economies of both Ukraine and Russia.
26. Prepare for potential escalation: Maintain a high level of readiness and prepare contingency plans.
27. Address humanitarian concerns: Provide assistance to civilians affected by the conflict.
28. Monitor troop movements: Track troop movements and deployments on both sides.
29. Enhance cyber security: Strengthen cyber security measures to protect critical infrastructure.
30. Assess environmental impact: Monitor the environmental impact of the conflict.
31. Plan for post-conflict recovery: Begin planning for post-conflict recovery and reconstruction efforts.
32. Maintain diplomatic channels: Keep diplomatic channels open with all relevant parties.
33. Adapt to evolving threats: Continuously adapt to new technologies, tactics, and strategies employed by both sides.
34. Monitor Russian military activities: Pay close attention to troop movements, equipment deployments, and potential offensive operations.
35. Counter Russian propaganda: Respond to Russian propaganda efforts aimed at undermining Ukrainian morale or justifying their actions.
36. Address internal security threats: Investigate reports of sabotage attempts and enhance security around critical infrastructure.
37. Improve troop morale and discipline: Address allegations of misconduct and abuse, and implement measures to improve morale and discipline.
38. Counter information warfare: Respond to disinformation and propaganda, and utilize official channels to provide accurate information.
39. Assess economic impact: Evaluate the impact on both economies and adjust policies as needed.
40. Prepare for potential escalation: Maintain readiness and prepare contingency plans.
41. Address humanitarian concerns: Provide assistance to affected civilians and coordinate with international organizations.
42. Maintain operational security: Emphasize the importance of operational security and avoid disclosing sensitive information.
43. Monitor troop movements: Track troop movements and deployments on both sides.
44. Enhance cyber security: Strengthen cyber security measures and coordinate with international partners.
45. Assess environmental impact: Monitor and address environmental concerns.
46. Plan for post-conflict recovery: Develop strategies for rebuilding and reconciliation.
47. Maintain diplomatic channels: Utilize diplomacy to seek a resolution and address underlying issues.
48. Adapt to evolving threats: Invest in research and development to counter emerging threats.
49. Counter the advance in Kharkiv: Prioritize efforts to halt the Russian advance and stabilize the front lines in the Kharkiv region.
50. Address the drone threat in Kyiv: Enhance air defense capabilities and investigate the recent drone strike.
51. Counter propaganda: Address allegations and provide evidence to counter false narratives.
52. Monitor and respond to drone activity: Maintain vigilance and deploy counter-drone measures.
53. Exploit Russian vulnerabilities: Identify and capitalize on weaknesses in Russian positions and logistics.
54. Strengthen defenses: Reinforce defensive positions, particularly in vulnerable areas.
55. Coordinate with international partners: Secure further military and financial assistance.
56. Address potential widening of conflict: Prepare for the possibility of the conflict expanding along the border.
57. Prepare for air and missile attacks: Ensure air defense systems are on high alert and coordinate with authorities to protect civilians and infrastructure.
58. Monitor Russian troop movements: Track Russian troop movements and anticipate potential offensive actions.
59. Disrupt Russian logistics: Target Russian supply lines and logistics hubs to hinder their operations.
60. Maintain public support: Communicate effectively with the public to maintain morale and support for the war effort.
61. Seek diplomatic solutions: Explore all possible avenues for a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
62. Address economic challenges: Implement measures to mitigate the economic impact of the conflict on Ukraine.
63. Monitor internal Russian developments: Analyze internal Russian political and military developments for potential impacts on the conflict.
64. Enhance cyber and information warfare capabilities: Invest in cyber and information warfare capabilities to counter Russian operations.
65. Investigate reported atrocities: Investigate reports of war crimes and human rights abuses, and hold those responsible accountable.
66. Prepare for long-term conflict: Develop strategies for a protracted conflict, including resource management, troop rotation, and long-term military planning.
67. Strengthen international alliances: Reinforce alliances with NATO and EU member states to ensure continued support.
68. Address potential threats from Belarus: Monitor the situation in Belarus and prepare for potential threats from that direction.
69. Develop counter-propaganda strategies: Develop and implement effective counter-propaganda strategies to combat Russian disinformation.
70. Enhance border security: Strengthen border security to prevent infiltrations and smuggling.
71. Address the threat of North Korean involvement: Investigate reports of North Korean involvement and assess the potential threat.
72. Monitor the situation in Syria: Analyze the information from former Syrian intelligence officials and assess its implications for the conflict.
73. Respond to Trump's statements: Address Trump's statements regarding Ukraine and NATO, and reaffirm Ukraine's commitment to Euro-Atlantic integration.
74. Assess the impact of sanctions: Evaluate the impact of existing and potential new sanctions on Russia's economy and military capabilities.
75. Prepare for potential escalation in the Black Sea: Monitor naval activity in the Black Sea and prepare for potential escalations, particularly given the reported loss of barriers near the Crimean Bridge.
76. Address the issue of gas transit: Engage in negotiations with relevant parties to resolve the issue of gas transit through Ukraine.
77. Monitor the situation in the Middle East: Assess the potential impact of developments in the Middle East, including the situation in Lebanon and the claimed Houthi attack on a US aircraft carrier, on the conflict in Ukraine.
78. Counter Russian advances in Kursk: Given the 10-kilometer breakthrough reported on the Kursk front and the liberation of Leonidovo and Alexandria, prioritize efforts to contain and repel Russian advances in this area. Deploy additional forces and resources to reinforce defensive positions and conduct counterattacks where feasible.
79. Enhance reconnaissance and surveillance: Increase the use of drones and other reconnaissance assets to monitor Russian troop movements and identify potential targets.
80. Improve coordination and communication: Ensure seamless coordination and communication between different units and branches of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
81. Secure supply lines: Protect and maintain supply lines to ensure the continuous flow of ammunition, equipment, and provisions to frontline units.
82. Develop and implement new tactics: Adapt to the evolving nature of the conflict by developing and implementing new tactics, particularly in the areas of drone warfare and counter-drone measures.
83. Strengthen international partnerships: Deepen cooperation with international partners to enhance intelligence sharing, military training, and the provision of advanced weaponry.
84. Address internal security issues: Investigate reports of sabotage, corruption, and misconduct within the military and government. Take appropriate measures to address these issues and maintain internal stability.
85. Prepare for potential negotiations: Develop a clear set of objectives and principles for any future negotiations with Russia, and coordinate with international partners to ensure a united front.
86. Enhance public diplomacy: Communicate Ukraine's position and objectives clearly and effectively to the international community, countering Russian propaganda and misinformation.
87. Address humanitarian needs: Provide assistance to civilians affected by the conflict, particularly those displaced or living in areas under threat. Coordinate with international organizations to ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid.
88. Monitor and respond to drone threats: Enhance air defense capabilities and deploy counter-drone systems to protect critical infrastructure and urban centers from drone attacks.
89. Address the situation in Kyiv: Investigate the drone strike in the Solomyanskyi district of Kyiv and take measures to prevent similar incidents in the future. Provide support to those affected by the attack.
90. Prepare for potential escalation: Given the intensity of the fighting and the unpredictable nature of the conflict, maintain a high level of readiness and prepare for potential escalations.
91. Exploit Russian vulnerabilities: Identify and capitalize on any weaknesses in the Russian military's positions, logistics, or morale.
92. Enhance cyber security: Strengthen cyber security measures to protect critical infrastructure and prevent cyber attacks.
93. Monitor and respond to Russian naval activity: Pay close attention to Russian naval activity in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov.
94. Address the issue of Ukrainian citizens abroad: Clarify the requirements for Ukrainian citizens turning 18 abroad to register for military service.
95. Counter Russian influence operations: Develop strategies to counter Russian influence operations, such as the reported blackmail of Armenia.
96. Prepare for potential escalation in drone warfare: Anticipate further escalation in drone warfare, particularly with the promised delivery of 30,000 FPV drones to Ukraine. Invest in counter-drone technologies and develop tactics to counter the threat posed by enemy drones.
97. Address the reported use of fiber-optic controlled drones: Develop countermeasures to address the threat posed by Russian drones equipped with fiber-optic control systems.
98. Exploit opportunities for counteroffensives: Identify and exploit opportunities for counteroffensives to regain lost territory and disrupt Russian operations.
99. Maintain pressure on Russian forces: Continue to exert pressure on Russian forces through a combination of offensive and defensive operations.
100. Strengthen cooperation with international partners: Enhance cooperation with international partners, particularly in the areas of intelligence sharing, military training, and the provision of military aid.
101. Monitor and respond to Russian air attacks: Maintain a high level of vigilance against Russian air attacks, particularly in areas where civilian infrastructure has been targeted. Deploy air defense systems and issue timely warnings to the population.
102. Address the reported use of guided aerial bombs: Develop tactics and deploy countermeasures to address the threat posed by Russian guided aerial bombs.
103. Counter Russian disinformation: Develop a proactive strategy to counter Russian disinformation campaigns. Utilize various communication channels to disseminate accurate information and debunk false narratives.
104. Maintain focus on long-term objectives: Ensure that all military operations are aligned with Ukraine's long-term strategic objectives, including the restoration of territorial integrity and the establishment of a lasting peace.

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