Strategic Overview

Operational tempo over the last 12 hours is characterized by a high-intensity exchange of deep-rear precision strikes and significant internal security actions. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) detained the AFU Air Force Logistics Commander in a major anti-corruption operation regarding defense fortifications, introducing short-term friction into UAF airfield hardening efforts.

Concurrently, both forces are compensating for severe "Rasputitsa" (mud) conditions that are stalling mechanized maneuver. Russia is bridging its strike capabilities with a newly announced 100km+ guided munition and maximizing heavy FAB yields against static defenses in the Donbas. In response, Ukrainian deep strikes and Special Operations Forces (SSO) continue to successfully degrade Russian energy infrastructure, rear logistics, and strategic air defense networks in occupied Crimea.

Operational Updates

• Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Sumy): UAV ingress persists with a confirmed strike in the Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv. Russian KAB strikes are targeting northern Sumy. Low visibility conditions in Vovchansk (1.0°C, fog, 100% cloud cover) continue to severely restrict optical ISR while favoring low-altitude UAV navigation.
• Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk): High-intensity positional combat continues. Russian forces deployed a high-yield FAB-3000 munition against UAF defensive nodes in Kostiantynivka. Saturated ground and weather in Pokrovsk (2.9°C, overcast) are preventing off-road mechanized exploitation. Russian sources issued an unconfirmed claim of capturing Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk), which remains uncorroborated by independent or UAF sources.
• Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson/Odesa): A Russian high-speed ballistic missile struck Mayaky (Odesa Oblast), temporarily disrupting local logistics. In the Stepnohirsk area, UAF GUR Special Unit "Artan" initiated localized offensive armored maneuvers. Ground conditions in Orikhiv (3.9°C, light rain, wind 3.3 m/s) remain highly restrictive to heavy armor.
• Deep Rear & Counter-Logistics: The UAF 80th Air Assault Brigade destroyed a Russian logistics and UAV warehouse in Kursk Oblast. A Ukrainian deep strike targeted the "Dorogobuzh" plant in Smolensk, resulting in 4-7 reported fatalities and highlighting gaps in Russian mid-range air defense protecting industrial sites.

SAR Intelligence (Satellite Data)

• High Priority: None currently identified.
• Analysis: Routine SAR monitoring of 10 locations, including the 49th Combined Arms Army HQ and several airbases (AB Zernograd, AB Khanskaya, AB Borisoglebsk), yielded diff_scores between 0.00 and 0.71. A score near 0 indicates stable, baseline activity with no significant departure or staging anomalies, not an abandoned site. High noise interference (0.75-0.91), likely due to persistent snow and wetness, degraded collection confidence over the Air Defense Radars (Smolensk) and the 721st Training Center GRAU.

Equipment & Losses

• Confirmed: 1 Russian S-400 "Triumph" and 1 Pantsir-S1 air defense system destroyed by UAF SSO thermal-guided strikes in Sofiivka, Crimea.
• Confirmed: 1 large Russian logistics warehouse (ammunition/drones) destroyed by the UAF 80th Air Assault Brigade in Kursk.
• Confirmed: 1 UAF pickup truck destroyed in the Shevchenko area, indicative of persistent tactical FPV threats to "last-mile" logistics.
• Sighting: Ukrainian intelligence confirms approximately 1,700 citizens of African nations are actively integrated into Russian military formations.
• Development: Kalashnikov Concern announced a new tactical guided munition with a range exceeding 100km.
• Development: The Ukrainian MoD initiated a ₴1.6 billion project to deploy 4,000 km of anti-drone netting along critical Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs).

Confidence Check

• HIGH: SBU detentions of AFU Air Force logistics leadership; UAF deep strikes on the Smolensk Dorogobuzh plant; ballistic strike on Mayaky; implementation of UAF anti-drone netting.
• MEDIUM: UAF SSO destruction of S-400/Pantsir systems in Crimea; technical validity of the new Russian 100km+ guided munition.
• LOW: Russian claims regarding the capture of Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk); uncorroborated atrocity footage circulated by Russian channels in the Zaporizhzhia sector; Russian "Vostok" claims of "massive destruction" of UAF reserves in Dnipropetrovsk.

The Bottom Line

The immediate operational environment remains defined by adverse weather locking mechanized units to paved roads, shifting the burden of advance entirely to standoff munitions and UAVs. The SBU's anti-corruption purge within the Air Force Logistics Command is a critical internal security event that may temporarily disrupt the hardening of Ukrainian airfields against inbound ballistic and UAV threats. Intelligence requirements should prioritize verifying the defensive integrity of the Pokrovsk axis following unconfirmed Russian capture claims and assessing the technical parameters of the new 100km Russian munition.