Strategic Overview

It’s currently -27°C on the front. The war has stalled into a deep freeze, but the rules of engagement just changed significantly. Zelenskyy officially designated Russian energy infrastructure as legitimate military targets. It’s a legalization of what was already happening, but stating it openly balances the scales—basically admitting the plan is now to freeze the Russian rear just as Moscow tries to freeze Kyiv.

Then there's the news about Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseev. The Deputy Head of the GRU is in "serious but stable" condition. We don't know if he caught a lucky strike or if this was an internal "accident," but taking him off the board disrupts their special ops coordination right when they need it most.

Operational Updates

North (Sumy/Belgorod): Belgorod is falling apart. Authorities are draining heating systems to stop pipes from bursting, which is a desperate move that signals systemic failure. On the flip side, we've spotted Il-78 tankers loitering. That suggests Russian bombers are staying airborne for long-duration patrols, likely probing for gaps in Ukrainian air defense while the grid is stressed.

East (Kupyansk/Donbas): The Russians seem more interested in PR than tactics here. The 125th Brigade wiped out a unit near Kupyansk that was trying to plant a flag just for the cameras. Waste of personnel for a photo op. The Alekseev injury might actually help Ukraine here; he was the guy connecting the regular army with the irregular units in the Donbas. Without him, coordination might get sloppy.

South (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson): The weather is technically non-flying, yet a UAF pilot (callsign "Morgan") managed to intercept a cruise missile. That is some serious flying in these conditions. There are also unconfirmed reports that Russian Starlink terminals in Kherson are failing. I'm skeptical until we see more proof, but if true, Ukraine has a brief window of electronic superiority.

Analysis

The next 12 hours are just a race to keep the lights on. Kyiv is trying to restart nuclear plants while fighting off ice, and Belgorod is effectively shutting itself down to avoid total ruin.

I'm confident in the assessment of the infrastructure failures and the Alekseev hit. The Starlink outage is still single-source, so take it with a grain of salt. My main worry is the retaliation for Alekseev. Moscow doesn't usually let a hit on GRU leadership slide without taking a swing at a "decision-making center," or emptying that arsenal we saw moving on satellite.