(CONFIDENTIAL // UKRAINE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE // DAILY SUMMARY)

DATE: May 10, 2025 REPORTING PERIOD: May 9, 2025, 15:00 UTC – May 10, 2025, 15:00 UTC (Approximate, based on consolidated reports)

Prepared For: High Command Prepared By: Military Intelligence AI Assistant (UKR/MI-AIA)

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I. Executive Overview

The past 24-hour period was characterized by continued high-intensity combat operations across multiple fronts, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, despite Russian declarations of a "Victory Day ceasefire." Russian forces maintained offensive pressure, conducting numerous ground assaults and extensive aerial and drone strikes, resulting in civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Ukrainian forces remain engaged in active defense, repelling assaults and inflicting losses, while also conducting deep strikes into Russian territory targeting military and industrial assets.

A significant diplomatic development emerged with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, alongside key European leaders, proposing a 30-day unconditional ceasefire to Russia via a joint call with Donald Trump, with the offer of direct negotiations should the ceasefire hold. Russia's initial public response has been dismissive and has included preconditions.

The India-Pakistan conflict saw a significant escalation with Pakistan initiating a military operation and reported cross-border strikes, though a US-mediated ceasefire has since been announced and confirmed by both sides, potentially de-escalating that regional crisis.

North Korea has overtly declared its support for Russia's actions in Ukraine, with Russian sources alleging direct North Korean military participation in operations within Kursk Oblast and plans for their commemoration. This represents a concerning deepening of military cooperation. Reports also indicate Iran is preparing to supply Russia with launchers for Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles.

Information operations remain pervasive, with Russia extensively leveraging Victory Day for propaganda purposes, while Ukraine continues to counter these narratives and highlight the realities of ongoing Russian aggression.

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II. Overall Situation Assessment

The operational tempo remains high. Russian forces continue to press offensive actions, particularly on the Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Lyman, and Toretsk directions, with claims of localized advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reports repelling a high number of assaults, indicating robust defensive efforts. The Kursk border region remains a significant area of contention, with ongoing Ukrainian cross-border activity and Russian defensive measures.

Russian aerial tactics involve persistent use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) and a high volume of kamikaze drones, targeting both frontline positions and civilian areas, as evidenced by casualties in Sumy Oblast and damage in Zaporizhzhia. The US Embassy in Kyiv has warned of a potentially significant Russian aerial attack in the coming days, indicating a heightened threat perception.

Ukraine continues to demonstrate its capability to conduct deep strikes into Russia, targeting industrial and military facilities. The successful targeting of a rare Russian 2S43 "Malva" self-propelled artillery system in Belgorod Oblast is a notable success. Drone warfare remains central to tactical engagements for both sides.

The diplomatic initiative for a 30-day ceasefire, while significant, faces considerable hurdles given Russia's current posture and preconditions. The de-escalation between India and Pakistan may free up international diplomatic bandwidth but also underscores regional instability. North Korea's increasingly overt support for Russia, and potential direct military involvement, is a critical development warranting close monitoring.

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III. Key Events & Developments

Ground Operations & Border Clashes

• Donetsk Oblast (Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Lyman, Toretsk, Kramatorsk, Chasiv Yar):
  • Pokrovsk Direction: Remains the most intense sector with 65 Russian assaults reported by UGS (May 9). Russian forces claim advances near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka (DeepState confirmation for these three). Ukrainian forces repelled an infiltration attempt near Pokrovsk despite the claimed ceasefire.
  • Novopavlivka Direction: 31 Russian assaults reported (May 9). Fierce battles near Novosilka, Novopol, and Vilne Pole.
  • Lyman, Toretsk, Kramatorsk, Siversk Directions: Continued high levels of combat engagements reported by UGS. Russian sources claim advances in the Alexandrovsky-Kalinovsky direction.
• Kursk Border Region (Tetkino):
  • UGS reported repelling 19 Russian assaults (May 9). Russian forces conducted 13 air strikes (21 KABs) and 316 artillery bombardments in the area.
  • Russian military bloggers report ongoing Ukrainian attempts to attack Tetkino, with Russian VDV units engaged in clearing operations. Intense battles ongoing for five days.
  • Alleged North Korean Military Involvement: Russian sources claim North Korean special forces are operating in Kursk Oblast, with plans for monuments to commemorate their "feat." Kim Jong Un has praised participants in the "Kursk operation."
  • Alleged Western PMC Presence: Russian sources claim PMCs from Poland, Lithuania, Denmark, and Great Britain are assisting Ukrainian forces. (Requires verification)
• Kherson Direction: UGS reported repelling 6 Russian assaults (May 9).

Aerial & Naval Activity

• Russian Air & Drone Strikes:
  • UGS reported 34 Russian air strikes (69 KABs) and 2174 kamikaze drone attacks across Ukraine (May 9).
  • Sumy Oblast: Repeated KAB launches reported. Civilian casualties (3 KIA, 7 WIA May 8-9) from shelling.
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 284 strikes (170 UAVs, 3 MLRS, 111 artillery) in 24 hours, 3 civilians injured.
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Continued KAB strikes reported by Russian sources (Kolodeznoye).
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Nikopol District): FPV drone attack on Marhanets hromada.
  • US Embassy Warning: Potentially significant Russian aerial attack anticipated in the coming days.
• Ukrainian Deep Strikes & Drone Operations:
  • Belgorod Oblast (RU): Destruction of a rare Russian 2S43 "Malva" SPG by Ukrainian drones confirmed. Ukrainian border guard "Phoenix" unit drones destroyed Russian Tor-M2, EW complex, vehicles.
  • Saransk & Tula (RU): Previous successful strikes on defense industrial facilities.
  • Tactical Drone Use: Ukrainian drone operators from the 60th Mechanized Brigade detected and engaged a Russian infiltration group near Pokrovsk. Presidential Brigade drones effectively targeted Russian assaults.
  • Naval Drones: GUR documentary showcases Magura V5 operations against Black Sea Fleet vessels and naval aviation.
• Naval Situation:
  • No Russian Kalibr carriers detected in Black or Azov Seas (as of May 10, 06:00 UTC).
  • One Kalibr carrier (8 missiles) present in the Mediterranean Sea.
  • Logistical movements continue through the Kerch Strait.

Diplomatic & Political Developments

• Ceasefire Proposal:
  • President Zelenskyy, along with European leaders (Macron, Merz, Starmer, Tusk) proposed a 30-day unconditional ceasefire to Russia via a call with Donald Trump, starting Monday, May 12th. Ukraine ready for direct negotiations if ceasefire holds.
  • Russia's Response: Highly negative and dismissive. Medvedev used crude language. Peskov stated ceasefire is impossible unless Western arms supplies to Ukraine stop, and accused Ukraine of avoiding negotiations.
  • International Stance: EU formally called for a 30-day ceasefire. Turkey supports an unconditional ceasefire and offers a monitoring role. Germany pledged continued financial support and assistance in ceasefire negotiations. France (Macron) threatened increased sanctions if Russia refuses. UK (Starmer) indicated increased military aid if Russia refuses.
  • Reported 22-Point Plan: NBC News reported a 22-point settlement plan, allegedly including US non-support for Ukraine's NATO membership, intended for submission to Putin.
• High-Level European Visit to Kyiv: French President Macron, German Chancellor Merz, UK Prime Minister Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Tusk arrived in Kyiv for a "coalition of the resolute" meeting, honoring Maidan victims and holding strategic discussions with President Zelenskyy.
• India-Pakistan De-escalation: Following significant escalation (Pakistani military operation "Unbreakable Wall", missile/air strikes claimed by both sides), Donald Trump announced a US-mediated full and immediate ceasefire, which has been confirmed by both India and Pakistan. Negotiations on a broad range of issues are planned.
• Russia-North Korea Deepening Ties: Kim Jong Un explicitly justified North Korean "participation" in the war, praised the "Kursk operation," and threatened military force in support of Russia. Russian sources claim senior North Korean military officials attended the Moscow Victory Day parade and that monuments to North Korean soldiers will be erected in Kursk Oblast.
• Russia-Iran Military Cooperation: Reports indicate Iran is preparing to supply Russia with launchers for Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles.
• Germany's Military Aid Transparency: Germany will reportedly classify details of future arms deliveries to Ukraine.
• Russian Diplomatic Engagements: Putin held extensive meetings with foreign leaders on Victory Day (Slovakia, Uzbekistan, Vietnam). Russian Ambassador to the US called for restoring normal relations. Russia-Kyrgyzstan and Russia-Mali military cooperation talks held. Russia-Vietnam signed cooperation documents, including in defense and security.

Information Operations

• Russian Victory Day Propaganda: Extensive use of historical narratives linking WWII to the current conflict. Showcasing military parades, patriotic displays (DPR flag in Donetsk), and events (UN commemoration). Dissemination of alleged FSB archival documents to discredit Ukrainian religious figures. Propaganda videos featuring children, veterans, and active military personnel.
• Ukrainian Counter-Narratives: Highlighting ongoing Russian aggression and civilian casualties despite ceasefire claims. Commemorating fallen defenders. Diaspora actions ("Mortal Regiment"). GUR documentary on naval drone successes.
• Allegations & Disinformation: Russian claims of massive Ukrainian ceasefire violations. Russian promotion of alleged mistreatment of POWs and captured Ukrainian servicewoman. Russian claims of "Western PMCs" in Kursk. Ukrainian concerns about Hungarian intelligence.

Internal Developments

• Ukraine:
  • Anti-Corruption: Ongoing NABU investigation into National Guard leadership regarding alleged embezzlement and bribery, with six officials suspended. SBU detained a criminal boss ("Umka").
  • Mobilization & Personnel: "Contract 18-24" initiative for voluntary one-year service. Legislation simplifying return to service for deserters/those who left units.
  • Commemoration: Plans for "Alleys of Glory" in Kryvyi Rih to honor fallen defenders.
• Russia:
  • Internal Security: Fatal grenade incident in Moscow Oblast involving a serviceman. Anti-war protests and detentions (Novosibirsk, Moscow). "State treason" case against a physicist in Tomsk. Scammer activity reported.
  • Airspace/Airport Disruptions: Temporary closures/restrictions at Kapustin Yar test site (potential missile tests) and Nizhnekamsk airport.
  • Social Issues: Reports of outrage over a pole dance routine in Kursk Oblast on Victory Day.

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IV. Assessment & Outlook

The strategic situation remains highly dynamic. While the diplomatic push for a 30-day ceasefire represents a significant international effort, Russia's immediate negative reaction and continued offensive operations suggest a low probability of acceptance under the proposed terms. The Kremlin's insistence on halting Western arms supplies as a precondition remains a major impediment. The contradiction between Russia's declared ceasefire and its ongoing military actions is a clear indicator of its strategic intentions and information warfare tactics.

The escalation and subsequent US-mediated de-escalation between India and Pakistan is a critical regional development that, while diverting some international attention, now appears to be stabilizing, which could allow focus to return to the conflict in Ukraine.

North Korea's increasingly overt support for Russia, including alleged direct military involvement in Kursk Oblast and threats against the West, is a major concern. This signals a potentially deeper level of military cooperation and could impact the battlefield dynamics, particularly in border regions. The reported Iranian preparations to supply missile launchers further underscores the strengthening of Russia's alliances with states outside the Western sphere.

Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate resilience in defense and an ability to conduct effective deep strikes against valuable Russian military and industrial targets. The success of Ukrainian drone operations, both tactical and strategic, remains a key factor. However, persistent Russian aerial bombardment, particularly with KABs and massed drone attacks, poses a continuous threat to civilian populations and infrastructure, necessitating ongoing robust air defense capabilities.

The high number of combat engagements, particularly on the Pokrovsk direction, indicates that Russia is maintaining significant pressure and likely aims to achieve further territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast. Reports of Russian advances near Romanivka, Oleksandropil, and Nova Poltavka align with this assessment.

Internationally, the visit of high-level European leaders to Kyiv and the joint statement on continued support and potential future security arrangements demonstrate strong European solidarity with Ukraine. However, differing opinions within the EU on how to approach Russia, as highlighted by Slovak and Hungarian positions, persist.

Outlook:

• Continued intense ground combat is highly probable, especially in eastern Ukraine and the Kursk border region, as Russia is unlikely to adhere to the proposed ceasefire without its conditions being met.
• Russian aerial and drone strikes will likely continue at a high tempo, with a persistent threat to civilian infrastructure. The warning of a potentially significant aerial attack remains relevant.
• Ukraine will likely continue its strategy of deep strikes to degrade Russian capabilities and retaliate for attacks on its territory.
• Information warfare will remain a critical domain, with both sides attempting to shape domestic and international perceptions.
• The nature and extent of North Korean and Iranian military support for Russia will be key indicators to monitor for potential shifts in battlefield capabilities.
• Diplomatic efforts will continue, but significant breakthroughs towards a negotiated settlement appear unlikely in the immediate future given the current Russian posture.

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V. Potential Indicators to Monitor

• Russian response to the 30-day ceasefire proposal by Monday, May 12th.
• Further evidence or denial of North Korean military involvement in Kursk or other regions.
• Confirmation of Iranian supply of Fateh-360 missile launchers to Russia.
• Intensity and targeting of any potential large-scale Russian aerial attacks in the coming days.
• Nature and scale of ongoing Ukrainian cross-border operations in Kursk Oblast.
• Developments in the India-Pakistan situation following the ceasefire.
• Specific outcomes or announcements from the "Coalition of the Resolute" meeting in Kyiv.
• Changes in Russian force posture or offensive tempo following Victory Day.
• Further reports on internal stability or dissent within Russia.
• Impact of the NABU investigation on the Ukrainian National Guard's operational effectiveness.

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(End Summary)