(CONFIDENTIAL // UKRAINE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE // DAILY SUMMARY)

DATE: May 11, 2025 REPORTING PERIOD: May 10, 15:00 UTC – May 11, 13:00 UTC (Approximate, based on consolidated reports)

Prepared For: High Command Prepared By: Military Intelligence AI Assistant (UKR/MI-AIA)

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I. Executive Overview

The operational landscape over the past 24 hours has been characterized by persistent and intense ground combat, particularly on the Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, and Krasnolimansky directions, with Russian forces claiming localized advances. The Kursk border region remains highly active, with ongoing engagements. Russian aerial activity, including guided aerial bomb (KAB) and extensive drone strikes, continues across multiple Ukrainian oblasts. A significant Russian drone attack overnight (May 10-11) involving over 100 UAVs (including decoys) was largely repelled by Ukrainian air defenses, though some strikes and civilian casualties were reported.

Diplomatically, the divergent stances on a ceasefire and negotiations persist. While international partners support Ukraine's call for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire preceding talks, Russia reiterates its position of "negotiations on root causes first, then ceasefire," effectively rejecting the current proposal. The Kremlin's confirmation of a Putin-Erdoğan phone call, where Turkey offered to host negotiations, underscores ongoing diplomatic maneuvering.

A key strategic development is the confirmed Ukrainian deep strike on the "Shcheglovsky Val" plant in Tula Oblast, a major Russian producer of air defense systems. Ukraine's innovative "Brave1 Market" initiative for military procurement continues to draw attention. Information operations remain intense, with Russia leveraging Victory Day narratives and Ukraine highlighting Russian aggression and its own resilience. The India-Pakistan conflict appears to have significantly de-escalated. Internal Russian issues, including social tensions and security concerns, continue to be reported.

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II. Major Operational Developments

A. Ground Combat Operations

• Pokrovsk Direction (Donetsk Oblast): Remains the most intense sector, with 36 Russian assaults reported by UGS today (27 repelled, 9 ongoing as of last report). Russian sources claim advances near Novosergiyevka. Ukrainian forces are actively engaged in heavy defensive battles.
• Kupyansk Direction (Kharkiv Oblast): Russian forces claim advances near Synkivka, Kyslivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Dvorichna, Fyholivka, Zapadne, Zahryzove, Lozova, and Kolisnykivka. Ukrainian forces repelled 3 attacks yesterday.
• Krasnolimansky Direction (Donetsk/Luhansk Oblast): Russian sources report advances near Grekovka, Makeyevka, Rovchak gully, Zelenaya Dolina, Redkodub, Kholodezi, and Torske. UGS reports 6 Russian attacks on this direction, with 4 ongoing.
• Kursk Border Region (Russia): Persistent fighting continues. UGS reports 4 combat engagements (2 ongoing). Russian forces conducted 4 KAB strikes and 134 artillery shellings. Russian bloggers report ongoing Ukrainian reconnaissance-in-force attempts near Tetkino, met with Russian drone, artillery, and aviation responses. Russian MoD claims repelling 5 Ukrainian border penetration attempts in Kursk/Belgorod since May 8th.
• Other Active Fronts:
  • Toretsk Direction: 5 Russian attacks reported by UGS. An unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattack was previously analyzed.
  • Siversk Direction: 2 Russian attacks repelled, 1 ongoing.
  • Kramatorsk Direction: 3 Russian attacks repelled.
  • Novopavlivka Direction: 2 Russian attacks repelled.
  • Orikhiv Direction: 5 Russian assaults repelled.
  • Dnipro (Kherson) Direction: 1 unsuccessful Russian attack. Russian sources claim to be engaging potential Ukrainian landing activity near Antonovsky Bridge.

B. Aerial & Drone Warfare

• Large-Scale Russian Drone Attack (Night of May 10-11):
  • Russia launched 108 strike UAVs (Shahed type) and drone imitators from multiple directions.
  • Ukrainian Air Defense shot down 60 strike UAVs. 41 drone imitators reportedly did not reach targets.
  • Sumi Oblast was affected, though no casualties reported. Kyiv Oblast also targeted, resulting in 1 civilian injury and damage to houses.
  • New Tactic Observed: Russian Shaheds reportedly used with a double warhead, one containing cluster submunitions designed for delayed detonation (2-6 hours, up to 20 hours), posing a prolonged threat to civilian areas.
• Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) Strikes:
  • Persistent KAB launches by Russian tactical aviation towards Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • Strikes on Pavlivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) caused severe civilian injuries.
• Ukrainian Drone Operations & Deep Strikes:
  • Confirmed Hit on "Shcheglovsky Val" plant (Tula Oblast, RU) on May 7th: This facility produces Pantsir-S/S1 SAMs, "Bakhcha-U" & "Berezhok" combat modules, and "Kornet-EM" ATGMs. A significant blow to Russian military production. A central workshop at the "Basalt" plant (Moscow Oblast) was also reportedly hit.
  • Tactical Drone Use: Destruction of a Russian command post near Kupyansk, targeting of a Russian sniper, and destruction of Russian positions/equipment in Sumy Oblast by Ukrainian border guards.
  • Counter-Drone Successes: Ukrainian forces claim to have downed 5 Russian reconnaissance UAVs (Zala, Supercam, Orlan) and a "Tor-M2" SAM system.
  • Cross-Border Drone Attacks (into Russia): Confirmed Ukrainian drone attack on a civilian vehicle in Khomutovka (Kursk Oblast) injuring a child, and in Valuyki (Belgorod Oblast) injuring a civilian.

C. Naval Activity

• Black Sea/Azov Sea: No Russian missile carriers reported active in the immediate vicinity.
• Mediterranean Sea: One "Kalibr" missile carrier remains deployed.
• Kerch Strait: Traffic continues.
• NATO Activity: NATO's "Mediterranean Strike - 2025" exercise, focusing on countering unmanned surface vessels, is ongoing.

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III. Diplomatic Landscape & Ceasefire Efforts

• Divergent Positions on Ceasefire Sequencing:
  • Ukraine & Key Allies (France, Germany, Poland, US Rep. Kellogg): Insist on a 30-day unconditional ceasefire starting May 12th before substantive negotiations. French President Macron has been actively coordinating this stance.
  • Russia: Rejects this sequencing, with the MFA stating negotiations on "root causes" must precede any ceasefire. Putin proposed talks in Istanbul from May 15th, which Turkey has welcomed, but the Kremlin's readout reportedly ignored Erdoğan's emphasis on an "all-encompassing ceasefire" as a prerequisite.
• Turkey's Mediation Role: President Erdoğan reiterated Turkey's readiness to host negotiations and facilitate a ceasefire, welcoming Putin's proposal for talks in Istanbul. A phone call between Putin and Erdoğan took place to discuss this.
• Other International Commentary:
  • Pope Leo XIV: Called for peace in Ukraine and a ceasefire in Gaza.
  • Slovak PM Fico: Claimed many Western countries want the war to continue and oppose direct talks before a ceasefire, supporting the Russian narrative of Western obstruction.
  • Donald Trump: Expressed optimism about ending the conflict and welcomed Putin's proposal for direct talks, while his special representative emphasized a ceasefire-first approach. Trump also admitted the difficulty in ending the war.

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IV. Information Operations & Narratives

• Russian Narratives:
  • Extensive Victory Day propaganda linking WWII to the current conflict.
  • Claims of massive Ukrainian ceasefire violations (14,000+ reported by MoD) and aggression, particularly border incursions.
  • Portraying Russia as ready for "serious negotiations" on its terms ("realities on the ground," "root causes").
  • Accusations of Western manipulation and efforts to prolong the war for profit.
  • Highlighting alleged Ukrainian force depletion and internal problems (e.g., TCC incidents).
  • Exploiting internal Russian social issues (migrant crime, dissent) to bolster state control narratives.
• Ukrainian Narratives:
  • Highlighting ongoing Russian aggression and civilian casualties despite ceasefire talks.
  • Showcasing military successes (drone strikes, equipment destruction, POW rescue).
  • Emphasizing international solidarity and support.
  • Countering Russian Victory Day propaganda with messages of remembrance and resilience.
  • Promoting innovative military solutions like the "Brave1 Market."

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V. Notable Internal Developments

A. Ukraine

• "Brave1 Market" Launch: Innovative platform for direct military procurement by units, incentivized by "combat points" for destroying enemy assets. Aims to streamline logistics and foster rapid technological adaptation.
• Military Aid & Support: EU to allocate €1bn from frozen Russian assets for Ukrainian arms. Significant local efforts to supply units (e.g., Zaporizhzhia front receiving 1100+ drones). HIMARS reportedly transferred to Kherson direction.
• Recruitment Issues: Alleged TCC incident in Kharkiv highlights potential challenges.
• Internal Security: SBU claims to have uncovered a Hungarian military intelligence network in Zakarpattia.
• Public Health: Hepatitis A outbreak in Kyiv.

B. Russia

• Internal Security & Dissent: Detention of migrant children for desecrating St. George ribbon. Burning of "SVO" symbol in Kislovodsk. Alleged attempt by schoolchildren to attack a military enlistment office. Concerns about post-war crime by returning veterans. Censorship of musicians (Noize MC).
• Legal/Political Control: State Duma proposals to strengthen responsibility for Russians abroad critical of the state.
• Military Production Impacted: Confirmed Ukrainian strikes on "Shcheglovsky Val" (Pantsir production) and "Basalt" (bombs/munitions) plants.
• Mobilization: Nationwide launch of digital conscription system.

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VI. Significant Geopolitical Context

• India-Pakistan De-escalation: Conflict appears to have significantly de-escalated with a US-mediated ceasefire and India reopening a dam.
• Russia-Libya Engagement: Meeting between Russian Defence Minister and LNA Commander Haftar indicates continued Russian influence in North Africa.
• Poland's Militarization: Viewed by Russian sources as direct preparation for a future conflict with Russia.
• Lithuania & Ottawa Convention: Withdrawal from the anti-personnel mine ban treaty reflects heightened security concerns in the Baltics.

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VII. Outlook & Strategic Considerations

• No Imminent Ceasefire: The fundamental disagreement on the sequencing of a ceasefire and negotiations makes an immediate, broad cessation of hostilities unlikely. Russia will likely continue military pressure to improve its negotiating position based on "realities on the ground."
• Intensified Combat: Expect continued high-intensity fighting, particularly in Donetsk Oblast and the Kursk border region. The Russian focus on Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, and Krasnolimansky directions indicates strategic objectives in these areas.
• Drone Warfare Evolution: The Russian use of Shaheds with delayed-action cluster submunitions poses a new, serious threat requiring urgent development of countermeasures. Ukraine's "Brave1 Market" aims to accelerate its own drone capabilities. Drone warfare will remain a decisive factor.
• Ukrainian Deep Strike Capability: Successful strikes on Russian military-industrial facilities demonstrate Ukraine's capacity to degrade Russia's war-making potential. This strategy will likely continue, forcing Russia to enhance internal air defenses and disperse critical production.
• Information War: Narratives around ceasefire proposals, Victory Day, and alleged atrocities will continue to be heavily contested.
• Internal Russian Stability: Reports of dissent, social tensions related to migrants, and potential issues with returning veterans warrant close monitoring for their potential impact on Russia's long-term stability and war effort.
• International Support for Ukraine: The EU's financial commitment and ongoing discussions about military aid are crucial for Ukraine's sustainment. The unified Western stance on a ceasefire preceding talks puts diplomatic pressure on Russia.

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(End Summary)