INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY: 251300Z SEP 25

REPORT DATE: Thursday, September 25, 2025

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) CRITICAL NEW Russian Federation (RF) forces have initiated a new, sustained, and large-scale air campaign against critical infrastructure in Chernihiv, representing a significant shift in targeting priorities. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) deep strike campaign has escalated to include attempted strikes on a nuclear power plant (Kursk NPP-2) and energy infrastructure in occupied territory (Luhanska TPP), introducing a highly escalatory threat vector that RF will almost certainly leverage for information operations (IO) and potential severe retaliation.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• RF Air Warfare (Targeting Shift): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW While the previous report highlighted ballistic missile strikes on Dnipro, the primary focus of RF air operations has shifted to a multi-wave UAV campaign against Chernihiv city and Oblast. This sustained attack on critical infrastructure represents a NEW major operational focus, distinct from the previous targeting of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro.
• UAF Deep Strike Campaign (Target Set Escalation): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW The previous report detailed successful UAF strikes against the Novorossiysk naval base and petrochemical facilities. The current period marks a significant escalation in target selection, with confirmed UAF attempts to strike the Kursk NPP-2 nuclear power plant and the Luhanska Thermal Power Plant (TPP). This demonstrates a UAF willingness to hold at risk highly sensitive RF and occupied infrastructure.
• Ground Warfare - Kupiansk Axis (Momentum Shift): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) CHANGED The previous report confirmed significant RF urban gains (115 buildings) and progress toward encirclement. In the last 24 hours, UAF General Staff reports repelling 18 of 19 RF assaults on the axis. This suggests a potential culmination of the immediate RF urban offensive and a successful stabilization of UAF defensive lines, a significant change from the previous period's RF advances.
• UAF Air Defense (Significant Tactical Success): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW UAF has achieved a significant tactical success by destroying a high-value RF "Forpost" reconnaissance UAV. This degrades RF's long-range ISR capabilities and demonstrates UAF's continued effectiveness against sophisticated aerial threats.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• RF Air/Missile Strikes (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - DYNAMIC): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat remains CRITICAL. The NEW sustained campaign against Chernihiv demonstrates RF's ability to dynamically shift its main effort to overwhelm regional air defenses and degrade civilian infrastructure in major northern cities. The threat is dynamic, as a severe retaliatory strike for the Kursk NPP-2 incident is now highly probable. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Former President Medvedev's NEW threat of a weapon "from which no bomb shelter can save" is assessed as IO intended for strategic deterrence, but it elevates the psychological threat level and cannot be entirely dismissed.
• RF Ground Forces (THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE - STABILIZING): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat level in Kupiansk remains SEVERE due to RF's established positions. However, the high rate of repelled assaults suggests the immediate threat of encirclement has stabilized or slightly decreased. RF retains the capability to regroup and resume its offensive after an operational pause. Pressure on other axes (Pokrovsk, Lyman) remains high and is intended to fix UAF reserves.
• RF Retaliatory Strikes (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - IMMINENT): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat of a large-scale retaliatory strike, predicted in the previous report, is now even more acute. RF will frame the attempted UAF drone attack on the Kursk NPP-2 as "nuclear terrorism." This provides a powerful pretext for a massive, potentially indiscriminate strike against a major Ukrainian urban center (e.g., Kyiv) or critical infrastructure, likely within the next 24-48 hours.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• RF Air Campaign - Chernihiv (NEW):
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Multiple sources confirm RF has conducted a sustained, multi-wave UAV attack campaign against Chernihiv city, specifically targeting critical infrastructure.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) This has resulted in significant fires, smoke plumes, and disruptions to local services. RF Lancet loitering munitions and reconnaissance UAVs remain active in the oblast.
• UAF Deep Strikes - Sensitive Infrastructure (NEW):
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF sources report a UAF drone attack was attempted against the Kursk NPP-2 nuclear power plant.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF sources report UAF attempted to strike the Luhanska TPP in occupied Luhansk Oblast.
• UAF Air Defense / C-UAS (NEW):
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The UAF 95th Air Assault Brigade successfully downed an RF "Forpost" reconnaissance UAV, a high-value ISR asset valued at an estimated $7 million.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF drone operators successfully coordinated HIMARS strikes on RF artillery positions in the Sumy/Kharkiv border region.
• Ground Warfare - All Axes:
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF General Staff reports repelling 95 combat engagements. The highest intensity remains on the Kupiansk (18/19 assaults repelled), Pokrovsk (15 assaults repelled), and Lyman (10 assaults repelled) axes.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW The anti-Kremlin "Russian Volunteer Corps" (RDK) has deployed its tank unit to the Donetsk Oblast, potentially reinforcing UAF offensive capabilities in the sector.
  • (LOW CONFIDENCE) RF MoD issued a broad claim of liberating over 4,714 sq km since January 2025. This is assessed as propaganda with no independent verification.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• CRITICAL (NEW - PRIORITY 1): Obtain verification and BDA of the RF claim to have destroyed another UAF Patriot air defense system battery. This is a high-priority threat to UAF's strategic air defense capability and requires immediate confirmation or refutation.
• CRITICAL (NEW - PRIORITY 2): Obtain comprehensive BDA of the sustained RF air strikes on Chernihiv. Task ISR to identify specific critical infrastructure nodes damaged or destroyed to assess the impact on regional stability and UAF logistics.
• HIGH (PERSISTING - PRIORITY 3): Re-assess RF intent and capability in Kupiansk. Determine if the reduced success of recent assaults represents a temporary culmination or a definitive shift requiring a UAF counter-offensive posture.
• HIGH (NEW - PRIORITY 4): Obtain BDA of the UAF attempt to strike the Luhanska TPP to determine effectiveness and impact on energy supply in the occupied territories.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY COA (RF RETALIATION): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will conduct a large-scale punitive strike using the attempted Kursk NPP-2 attack as justification. The strike will be framed as a response to "nuclear terrorism." The most probable target is Kyiv, targeting government quarters and critical infrastructure with a multi-domain barrage (ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, UAVs) to maximize political and psychological impact.
• MOST LIKELY COA (RF AIR): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will continue its intensive UAV campaign against Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts to fully degrade regional infrastructure, terrorize the civilian population, and fix UAF air defense assets in the north, away from other critical axes.
• MOST LIKELY COA (RF GROUND): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces in Kupiansk will likely conduct an operational pause to regroup and resupply following high-attrition assaults. Probing attacks and heavy shelling will continue to fix UAF defenders in place. Assaults will continue at a high tempo on the Pokrovsk axis.
• MOST DANGEROUS COA (RF ESCALATION): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) In addition to a conventional punitive strike, RF uses Medvedev's threat as a pretext to employ a novel or unconventional weapon system (e.g., advanced thermobaric, EMP, or a tactical nuclear weapon in a demonstrative capacity) against a UAF military concentration or logistical hub, dramatically escalating the conflict in response to the perceived threat against its nuclear infrastructure.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize Capital Air Defense: Immediately elevate the air and missile defense posture for Kyiv. Re-task mobile IADS and C-UAS assets to defend against an imminent and likely severe multi-axis retaliatory strike. Prepare civil defense authorities for a potential mass casualty event.
2. Reinforce Northern Air Defense: Immediately re-assess and reinforce the air defense architecture around Chernihiv and Sumy to counter the ongoing, sustained UAV campaign and prevent the complete collapse of regional critical infrastructure.
3. Launch Counter-IO on "Nuclear Terrorism": Direct STRATCOM and PSYOP to immediately launch a preemptive global information campaign to counter RF's narrative on the Kursk NPP-2 incident. Frame any UAF actions as targeting legitimate military-support infrastructure near the site, not the nuclear facility itself, to mitigate international backlash and control the narrative.
4. Verify Patriot System Status: Task all-source ISR assets with the highest priority to confirm or deny the alleged destruction of a UAF Patriot system. The operational impact of losing such an asset requires immediate confirmation for contingency planning.
5. Assess Kupiansk Counter-Attack Feasibility: Task operational planners to urgently assess the feasibility of a limited, localized counter-attack in Kupiansk to exploit the potential culmination of the RF offensive, reclaim tactical initiative, and disrupt RF's ability to regroup.

//END REPORT//