SUBJECT: DAILY INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY – 220600Z NOV 25

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT: The operational window for the Russian Federation (RF) breakthrough at Pokrovsk has transitioned from "preparatory" to "execution phase" following the confirmed use of a FAB-3000 heavy glide bomb on Mirnohrad. This escalation in ordnance weight signifies an intent to erase urban fortifications immediately prior to the committed 40th/155th OMBR mechanized assault. Simultaneously, UAF Special Operations have achieved a strategic success with the sabotage of fuel transit rails in Perm, Russia, demonstrating deep-strike reach. While Spetsnaz (SpN) interdiction of the Kostiantynivka GLOC remains the primary tactical threat, new SAR data reveals a critical surge at GRAU Missile Arsenals, indicating rapid reconstitution for a follow-on strategic missile wave.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REPORT

• Kinetic Escalation (NEW): The introduction of FAB-3000 munitions marks a significant deviation from standard artillery preparation. This indicates a shift from "fixing" defenders to "clearing" terrain for immediate armored maneuver.
• Strategic Logistics (SIGNIFICANT CHANGE): While the previous report highlighted UAF logistical fragility, new intelligence confirms RF internal logistical vulnerability via the Perm railway sabotage.
• Strategic Strike Indicators (REFINED): Previous reporting noted rising activity at Air Base Pskov. New SAR data (19 Nov) shows AB Pskov activity has ceased (Score 0.00), while the GRAU Missile Arsenal (Score 47.07) and AB Monchegorsk (Score 8.98) show a massive RISING trend. This suggests the "Pskov threat" has either deployed or dispersed, while a major ordnance reload is underway at central arsenals.
• Diplomatic/IO Environment (NEW): The arrival of high-level US DoD officials (Driskill/George) in Kyiv provides a physical counter-narrative to the circulating RF/AXIOS "peace plan" rumors aimed at demotivating UAF personnel.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• Pokrovsk Breakthrough (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - IMMINENT): The "clearing operation" via FAB-3000 is judged to be the final precursor. The 40th and 155th OMBR assault is expected within 0-4 hours. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• GLOC Interdiction (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL): The threat of SpN interdiction on the Kostiantynivka road remains active. The lack of kinetic action in the last 12 hours likely indicates SpN teams are waiting to synchronize their ambush with the mechanized main effort to maximize chaos. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Strategic Missile Restart (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH - BUILDING): The extreme activity spike at the GRAU Missile Arsenal (Score 47.07) indicates a rapid logistical surge. RF is likely preparing a second, larger wave of missile strikes to follow the recent drone/missile saturation attacks. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Mirnohrad Strike: Video BDA confirms the destruction of multi-story residential infrastructure in Mirnohrad via FAB-3000. This serves both a tactical purpose (destroying defensive hardpoints) and a psychological one (terrorizing rear areas).
• Deep Rear Sabotage: Confirmed destruction of fuel tankers in Perm, Russia. This is the third major deep-rear logistics strike (after Lviv Ukrposhta and Kamyan’ske), confirming a sustained UAF campaign to impose friction on RF supply lines.
• Gulyaypole Adaptation: Video evidence shows UAF logistics vehicles equipped with makeshift cage armor/camouflage, indicating successful tactical adaptation against the RF "Group Vostok" loitering munition threat.
• Counter-Force Claims: RF IO claims the destruction of two UAF ATACMS launchers in Kharkiv via Iskander-M. This remains unverified but represents a high-priority intelligence gap.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• PRIORITY 1 (URGENT): ATACMS BDA Verification. Confirm or deny RF claims of destroying two ATACMS launchers in Kharkiv. If true, this represents a significant loss of deep-strike capability.
• PRIORITY 2 (TACTICAL): 40th OMBR Vector. Specific axis of advance for the 40th OMBR following the FAB-3000 strike. Are they bypassing Mirnohrad or assaulting directly through the ruins?
• PRIORITY 3 (STRATEGIC): GRAU Arsenal Activity. Determine if the spike in activity at the GRAU arsenal (Score 47.07) involves the transfer of ballistic (Iskander) or cruise (Kh-101) missile stocks to forecast the next strike profile.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MLCOA (Breach and Sever): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Within 4 hours, RF forces will launch a battalion-sized mechanized thrust into the FAB-3000 impact zone at Mirnohrad. Simultaneously, SpN elements will detonate IEDs or engage convoys on the Kostiantynivka GLOC. RF aims to physically breach the line while logically cutting off ammunition resupply.
• MDCOA (Operational Exploitation): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) If the Kostiantynivka GLOC is closed for >12 hours, UAF forward units will exhaust immediate anti-tank stocks. RF mechanized forces will exploit this to bypass urban centers and encircle UAF grouping in Pokrovsk, forcing a disorganized withdrawal under artillery fire.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Deployment of Tactical Reserve (IMMEDIATE - J3): Do not wait for the breach. Deploy the designated tactical reserve to blocking positions between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka immediately. The FAB-3000 strike was the "go" signal.
2. Activate Secondary GLOCs (IMMEDIATE - J4): Assume the Kostiantynivka main road is compromised. Shift all non-essential traffic to secondary/tertiary unpaved routes immediately. Pre-position recovery assets for mud/terrain issues.
3. Counter-Propaganda (URGENT - STRATCOM): Widely disseminate imagery of the Perm railway sabotage. Domestic morale requires a "win" to offset the terror impact of the Mirnohrad FAB-3000 strike.
4. Targeted ISR (IMMEDIATE - J2): Re-task high-resolution SAR/Satellite assets to the GRAU Missile Arsenal (Coords 59.9719, 29.3124) to characterize the cargo being moved (identifying crate sizes for missile type).

//END OF REPORT//