1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The operational threat picture has shifted critically to the UAF rear. NEW: Confirmed RF infiltration groups are now operating inside Kostiantynivka, directly threatening C2 and logistics supporting the Pokrovsk defense. This is synchronized with NEW RF kinetic strikes against UAF ISR assets in Dnipropetrovsk, assessed as final shaping operations for an IMMINENT large-scale Shahed saturation strike.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• Pokrovsk Salient Rear Area Security (CRITICAL CHANGE): The primary threat has evolved from interdiction of the forward GLOC to direct disruption of the operational rear. While the UAF reinforcement corridor remains intact (re-confirmed by Genshtab), NEW intelligence confirms RF просачивание (infiltration) groups are now operating inside the key rear-area city of Kostiantynivka.
• RF Pre-Strike Posture (ESCALATED): The predicted RF strategic saturation strike is now assessed as imminent. NEW: RF has begun kinetic shaping of the deep battlespace, successfully targeting and claiming the destruction of a UAF UAV launch system in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This action is designed to degrade UAF ISR and early warning capabilities immediately prior to the main strike.
• UAF Strategic Interdiction Campaign (CONTINUED): UAF continues its successful deep strike campaign against RF economic targets. NEW: UAF long-range UAS strikes have successfully halted fuel exports from the Russian port of Tuapse.
• Operational Environment (NEW): Weather is deteriorating across the Kharkiv and Donbas axes. This will likely degrade UAF Air Defense (AD) sensor performance, favoring the imminent RF Shahed strike, while simultaneously providing better concealment for RF infiltration group movements.
• Information Domain (NEW): RF has launched a new IO campaign claiming the "liberation" of Vovchansk, which is assessed as an exaggeration of localized tactical gains. Concurrently, UAF C2 is actively countering RF IO claims of encirclement at Pokrovsk.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• RF Infiltration in Operational Depth (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - NEW): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The confirmed presence of RF small assault groups within Kostiantynivka constitutes an immediate and direct threat to Brigade-level C2 nodes, ammunition supply points (ASPs), and the primary GLOCs supporting the entire Pokrovsk defensive operation.
• RF Strategic Saturation Strike (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - IMMINENT): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat of a large-scale Shahed strike remains CRITICAL and is now assessed as imminent (likely in the next 4-8 hours). The recent kinetic strike on a UAF UAV system serves as a clear final indicator and warning (I&W).
• Attrition of UAF Deep ISR Assets (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH - NEW): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The successful RF strike on a UAF UAV launch system demonstrates a new and dangerous capability to attrit UAF's primary asymmetric advantage. This directly degrades UAF's ability to provide early warning and targeting for deep threats.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Ground Domain - Donetsk Oblast: (HIGH CONFIDENCE - NEW) While the UAF GUR-established corridor into Pokrovsk is holding, the tactical focus must shift to the rear. RF has successfully infiltrated combat elements into Kostiantynivka, forcing UAF to conduct counter-infiltration operations to secure its own operational depth.
• Air/Strike Domain (RF): (HIGH CONFIDENCE - NEW) RF continues to employ KABs against Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Critically, RF has escalated its targeting priorities to include UAF force enablers, claiming the destruction of a UAF UAV launch system in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• Deep Strike Domain (UAF): (HIGH CONFIDENCE - NEW) UAF maintains the strategic initiative in economic warfare, successfully conducting a long-range UAS strike that has halted fuel exports from the RF port of Tuapse.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• PRIORITY 1 (CRITICAL - NEW): Determine the Order of Battle (OOB), C2 structure, ingress/egress routes, and specific mission sets of the RF просачивание groups confirmed operating inside Kostiantynivka.
• PRIORITY 2 (CRITICAL - UNCHANGED): Identify the specific primary target sets (e.g., energy substations, rail hubs, military depots) for the imminent large-scale RF Shahed attack to enable last-minute AD repositioning and hardening of assets.
• PRIORITY 3 (HIGH - NEW): Assess the immediate operational impact of the loss of the UAV launch system in Dnipropetrovsk on regional ISR coverage and identify remaining UAF ISR vulnerabilities in the sector.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY COA (Synchronized Deep & Tactical Disruption): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Within the next 4-8 hours, RF will launch the anticipated large-scale Shahed UAV strike (est. 50-80+ platforms) against CNI and logistics hubs in Dnipropetrovsk/Poltava Oblasts, exploiting deteriorating weather conditions. Simultaneously, RF просачивание groups in Kostiantynivka will attempt to execute raids and ambushes against UAF C2 nodes, logistics convoys, and artillery positions to sow chaos in the rear, paralyzing the response to frontal assaults on Pokrovsk.
• MOST DANGEROUS COA (Cascading Collapse): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The Shahed strike achieves a high degree of success due to weather-degraded AD, causing systemic C2 and power failure in the operational rear. Concurrently, RF infiltration groups successfully destroy a key Brigade HQ or sever a primary GLOC, inducing operational paralysis and forcing a disorganized, high-casualty withdrawal from the Pokrovsk salient.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Initiate Counter-Infiltration Operations (Urgent J2/J3 Priority): Immediately task dedicated hunter-killer teams (SSO, GUR, National Guard QRF) with thermal/UAS assets to locate, fix, and destroy the confirmed RF infiltration groups in Kostiantynivka. Establish immediate security cordons around all identified high-value targets (HVT) in the Kostiantynivka-Pokrovsk operational area.
2. Execute Maximum AD Readiness (Urgent All Commands Priority): Issue a final FLASH warning for an IMMINENT large-scale RF Shahed strike (window: next 4-8 hours). Mandate immediate, final dispersal of all critical mobile assets at key logistics hubs. Task J3 (Air) to reposition available mobile SHORAD to provide point defense for the most critical nodes supporting the Donbas front.
3. Task Counter-IO Assets (Urgent J2/PSYOP Priority): Immediately deploy prepared media packages with geolocated imagery to counter RF claims of "liberating" Vovchansk. The objective is to deny RF an unchallenged IO victory and maintain morale among friendly forces and the local populace in the Kharkiv sector.

//END REPORT//