INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY: 231300Z SEP 25

REPORT DATE: Tuesday, September 23, 2025

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW Russian Federation (RF) forces have shifted air campaign tactics from a single massive wave to sustained, lethal nightly strikes, repeatedly targeting Zaporizhzhia with Guided Aerial Bombs (КАБ) and initiating a NEW large-scale campaign against Ukrainian railway infrastructure. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) NEW RF has significantly escalated ground offensive claims, asserting partial encirclement of Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) in Kupiansk and full fire control over the critical Krasny Lyman-Siversk highway, indicating a potential shift in operational initiative on these axes that requires immediate verification.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• Air Warfare (Tactical Shift to Sustained Strikes & New Target Set): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) CHANGED The single massive UAV wave (~141 UAVs) from the previous reporting period has been replaced by a smaller but still significant wave (~115 UAVs launched) and a NEW pattern of sustained, lethal nightly strikes. Zaporizhzhia was targeted with КАБ/FAB munitions for the second consecutive night, increasing the civilian casualty count (1 new fatality, 7 injured). CRITICAL NEW A large-scale campaign targeting Ukrainian railway infrastructure has been identified, representing a new strategic objective to disrupt UAF logistics. UAF deep strikes on Moscow have continued, with NEW intelligence suggesting the use of air balloons to complicate RF air defense.
• Ground Warfare (Significant New RF Offensive Claims): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) CHANGED While the previous report highlighted a major UAF advance on the Dobropillya direction (now a sustained claim), this period is dominated by significant NEW RF ground claims. The most critical are the assertion of a partial encirclement of UAF forces in Kupiansk (controlling 5.6k of 8.6k buildings) and establishing full fire control over the Krasny Lyman-Siversk highway, which would severely hamper UAF logistics. RF has also claimed multiple NEW territorial gains, including Pereyezdnoye (Donetsk Oblast) and Berëzovoye (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), the latter being confirmed by third-party sources.
• Strategic Posture (NATO Response Nuanced): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) CHANGED Following Estonia's call for a NATO meeting, the public response has become more nuanced. NATO Secretary General Rutte stated that while there was no "immediate threat," decisions to engage violating aircraft would be made in real-time based on the threat level, a more specific and conditional deterrent message than previous general statements.
• Logistical Warfare (Persistent Attrition): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) SUSTAINED UAF heavy drones continue to successfully interdict RF logistics by remotely mining supply routes, with NEW RF serviceman reports confirming casualties for at least four consecutive days. This confirms a persistent and effective UAF TTP.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• RF Air/Missile Strikes (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - SUSTAINED): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat remains CRITICAL. The NEW tactical focus on sustained nightly strikes on specific urban centers (Zaporizhzhia) aims to attrit local air defenses and terrorize the population. The NEW strategic campaign against Ukrainian railways poses a critical threat to UAF logistics and national mobility. The combination of harassing drone waves, persistent КАБ strikes on frontline cities, and strategic infrastructure attacks presents a multi-layered and severe threat.
• RF Ground Forces (THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE - INCREASED): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The threat level has increased due to significant NEW RF claims that, if verified, could represent a shift in operational initiative. The potential for UAF logistical isolation on the Lyman-Siversk axis and encirclement at Kupiansk constitutes a severe and immediate risk. Despite persistent reports of poor RF morale and high attrition on the Pokrovsk axis, RF's ability to generate localized offensive momentum remains high.
• RF Hybrid Warfare / EW (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - SUSTAINED): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat remains CRITICAL. Putin's announcement regarding intermediate-range missiles continues to define the strategic threat landscape. NEW RF IO is exploiting the nuanced NATO response and the denial of US visas to Lavrov's press pool to sow discord.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Air Warfare - RF Sustained Strikes (NEW):
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF launched ~115 UAVs overnight; UAF Air Defense successfully intercepted/suppressed 103 (89.5% success rate).
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) For the second consecutive night, RF struck Zaporizhzhia with multiple КАБ/FAB munitions, targeting residential areas and industrial infrastructure. Confirmed casualties have risen to 1 killed, 7 injured.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) An RF strike on Odesa Oblast damaged a hotel, resulting in 1 fatality and 3 wounded.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW reporting indicates a large-scale RF attack wave targeting the Ukrainian railway system.
• Deep Strike - UAF Campaign (SUSTAINED):
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF drone attacks on Moscow continued, with RF sources claiming ~28-58 UAVs downed over Moscow and surrounding oblasts. Damage to residential buildings in New Moscow confirmed. NEW intelligence suggests UAF is employing air balloons in conjunction with UAVs.
• Ground Warfare - RF Advances/Claims (NEW):
  • (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF claims to have achieved partial encirclement of UAF forces in Kupiansk.
  • (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF claims to have established full fire control over the Krasny Lyman-Siversk highway.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces liberated Berëzovoye (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), confirmed by DeepState.
  • (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF forces claim liberation of Pereyezdnoye (Donetsk Oblast), supported by RF video evidence.
• RF Morale / Manpower (SUSTAINED):
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW video evidence from RF soldiers continues to indicate extremely high casualty rates and poor morale. One report claims only a company remains from a 700-man battalion; another shows a BMP driver as the sole survivor of his previous crew, expressing pessimism about an upcoming assault.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• CRITICAL (NEW - PRIORITY 1): Urgently verify the extent of RF claims of partial encirclement in Kupiansk and fire control over the Lyman-Siversk highway. Task all-source ISR to confirm the new Line of Contact (LOC), assess UAF force posture and logistical status, and identify RF intent for exploitation.
• CRITICAL (NEW - PRIORITY 2): Obtain comprehensive BDA and impact assessment of the NEW RF campaign against Ukrainian railway infrastructure. Identify specific targets, degree of disruption to UAF logistics, and RF's capacity to sustain this campaign.
• HIGH (PERSISTING - PRIORITY 3): Continue to monitor for any observable changes in RF strategic missile force posture, deployments, or alert levels following Putin's announcement regarding intermediate-range missiles.
• HIGH (PERSISTING): Assess the primary reason for General Lapin's dismissal and its impact on the C2 of RF's "Center" and Leningrad Military District forces.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY COA (RF AIR): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will continue its campaign of sustained nightly strikes, likely focusing again on Zaporizhzhia with КАБs to maximize psychological impact and degrade local defenses. Attacks on railway infrastructure will likely expand to other critical junctions and repair facilities to create systemic logistical disruption for UAF.
• MOST LIKELY COA (RF GROUND): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will attempt to consolidate and exploit its claimed gains. On the Kupiansk axis, RF will intensify assaults to complete the encirclement. On the Lyman-Siversk axis, RF will leverage fire control to interdict UAF movement and support further advances towards Torske. High-attrition assaults on the Pokrovsk axis will continue to fix UAF reserves.
• MOST LIKELY COA (RF IO): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO will heavily amplify the Kupiansk encirclement narrative to project major operational success and demoralize UAF. They will frame the sustained attacks on Zaporizhzhia as retaliation for UAF deep strikes and continue to portray UAF as targeting civilians in Belgorod. The US visa denial for Lavrov's press pool will be used as evidence of Western hostility and suppression of "truth."
• MOST DANGEROUS COA (RF GROUND): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF commits unobserved operational reserves to the Kupiansk axis to convert the claimed partial encirclement into a full cauldron, aiming to force the surrender or destruction of a significant UAF grouping. This would represent a major tactical defeat for UAF and a significant morale victory for RF.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize ISR on Kupiansk & Lyman-Siversk Fronts: Immediately re-task all available ISR assets (SIGINT, IMINT, UAV) to urgently verify or refute RF claims of encirclement at Kupiansk and fire control over the Lyman-Siversk highway. This intelligence is critical for immediate operational planning to prevent a tactical disaster.
2. Harden and Defend Railway Infrastructure: Immediately direct forces to harden key railway junctions, bridges, and repair depots. Re-task mobile air defense and C-UAS assets to provide layered defense for this NEW critical target set.
3. Reinforce Zaporizhzhia Air Defense: Given the sustained, lethal nightly attacks, immediately reinforce the air defense posture around the city of Zaporizhzhia to mitigate civilian casualties and counter RF's attritional strategy.
4. Counter RF Kupiansk Narrative: Direct STRATCOM to immediately issue clear and factual updates on the situation in Kupiansk to counter the RF narrative of encirclement. Showcase UAF defensive actions and resilience to maintain domestic and military morale.
5. Exploit RF Morale Deficiencies: Task PSYOP to amplify the NEW direct-from-source evidence of catastrophic RF losses and poor morale on the Pokrovsk axis. Target RF units in this sector with messaging encouraging surrender to capitalize on their demonstrated weakness.

//END REPORT//