1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The RF operational plan predicted in the last cycle has been executed: the kinetic attack on the Kamyan’ske rail hub is confirmed, and the RF просачивание groups are NOW KINETIC, having executed a confirmed attack on a UAF deployment point deep in the Pokrovsk operational rear. NEW IMINT reveals RF is reconstituting its strike capability not from northern airfields, but by surging activity at two NEWLY IDENTIFIED, CRITICAL GRAU missile and artillery arsenals, indicating preparation for follow-on precision strikes against UAF’s compromised ground lines of communication (GLOCs).

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• RF Infiltration Groups (STATUS CHANGE: AWAITING TRIGGER -> KINETIC): The operational pause has ended. The predicted attack by RF просачивание groups has materialized with a confirmed strike by the 57th orSpN against a UAF temporary deployment point in Dymytrov (Myrnohrad). This confirms the threat in the operational rear has shifted from latent to active.
• RF Mass Strike (STATUS CHANGE: PREDICTED -> EXECUTED & DEFEATED): The anticipated large-scale UAV saturation attack was executed. UAF Air Defense performed with high effectiveness, neutralizing a confirmed 108 enemy UAVs.
• RF Munitions Posture (STATUS CHANGE: RECONSTITUTING - NEW SOURCES): While the previously identified GRAU arsenal remains depleted, NEW SAR analysis provides high-confidence evidence of a shift in reconstitution efforts.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF is now surging activity at two different strategic depots: the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base (Score: 30.82) and a GRAU Missile Arsenal in the Kaliningrad Oblast (Score: 16.18). This indicates RF is tapping alternate, high-capacity stockpiles for its next strike wave.
  • (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The rising activity at Pskov and Monchegorsk Air Bases may have been a secondary effort or a feint; the primary reconstitution effort is now assessed to be occurring at these GRAU arsenals.
• Belarusian AD Posture (STATUS CHANGE: ELEVATED -> STABILIZING/DECREASING): NEW SAR trend data shows activity at the Belarusian 15th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade is now stable or falling. The immediate threat of Belarusian involvement is assessed to have decreased.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• RF Infiltration in Operational Depth (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - ACTIVE): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat from RF SpN groups is no longer imminent; it is active and proven kinetic. Their objective is the systemic paralysis of the Pokrovsk rear area by striking C2, logistics nodes, and the vulnerable road-based GLOCs.
• RF Follow-on Precision Strike (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH - RECONSTITUTING): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The successful precision strike on the Kamyan’ske rail station validates RF's targeting capability. The observed surge at two new GRAU arsenals indicates RF is rapidly preparing a follow-on strike package, likely smaller in scale but aimed with high precision at critical road junctions, bridges, or repair crews to complete the isolation of the Pokrovsk front.
• Belarusian Involvement (THREAT LEVEL: LOW - DE-ESCALATING): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The decreased activity of the Belarusian 15th AAM Brigade suggests a return to a standard defensive posture. Direct involvement in RF offensive operations is assessed as unlikely in the current cycle.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Ground/Logistics Domain: The operational rear of the Pokrovsk salient (Kostiantynivka-Myrnohrad sector) is now a contested battlespace. The kinetic attack in Dymytrov places all UAF logistics, C2, and force concentrations in this area at direct risk. UAF J4 road-based resupply is now operating under extreme threat.
• Air/Strike Domain (RF): RF successfully executed its operational design: a mass UAV swarm to fix and attrit AD, followed by a successful precision strike against a critical logistics node (Kamyan’ske rail station). RF is now in a BDA and reconstitution phase, preparing for the next kinetic action.
• Air/Strike Domain (UAF): UAF forces achieved a major tactical victory by neutralizing 108 RF UAVs, validating AD TTPs. Strategic initiative was maintained through a successful deep strike on the Kostroma GRES, continuing to impose costs on RF critical infrastructure.
• Diplomatic Domain (NEW): A significant strategic gain was achieved with the EU Council's agreement to redirect funds for military aid and support Ukraine's accession to the European Defence Fund. This provides crucial long-term resource assurance.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• PRIORITY 1 (CRITICAL - UNCHANGED): Determine the full Order of Battle (OOB), C2 structure, and specific targeting list of the RF SpN elements (57th orSpN) now active in the Kostiantynivka-Myrnohrad sector.
• PRIORITY 2 (HIGH - REFINED): Characterize the nature of the CRITICAL activity at the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base and the active GRAU Missile Arsenal (54.5879, 20.2047). Collection must focus on identifying the specific munition types being prepared and transported to provide indicators and warning for the next strike.
• PRIORITY 3 (CRITICAL - UNCHANGED): Quantify the estimated time to repair (ETR) for the Kamyan’ske rail lines. This remains the single most important factor for determining the duration of high-risk road transport operations.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY COA (Exploit Rear Area Chaos): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF SpN groups will conduct follow-on raids against pre-identified targets (C2 nodes, ammunition supply points, key road intersections) in the Pokrovsk rear to sow chaos and complete the paralysis of UAF logistics. Concurrently, RF frontal units at Pokrovsk will maintain maximum pressure to fix UAF defenders and prevent the redeployment of forces for counter-infiltration operations.
• MOST DANGEROUS COA (Synchronized Operational Collapse): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF launches a precision strike, reconstituted from the newly active GRAU arsenals, against a critical road bridge or junction supporting the Kamyan’ske bypass. This strike is synchronized with a large-scale SpN ground ambush on a high-value convoy. The combined effect achieves the complete, temporary severing of all GLOCs to Pokrovsk, forcing a crisis decision on a tactical withdrawal from the salient.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Launch Operation VIPER HUNT (Urgent J3/SOF Priority): The threat has evolved beyond convoy protection. Immediately authorize and resource a dedicated counter-infiltration campaign in the Kostiantynivka-Myrnohrad sector. Task SOF and GUR hunter-killer teams to actively find, fix, and destroy the confirmed 57th orSpN elements before they can execute follow-on attacks.
2. Reprioritize ISR on NEW Munition Arsenals (Urgent J2 Priority): Immediately retask all available IMINT and SIGINT assets to provide persistent coverage of the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base and the GRAU Missile Arsenal (54.5879, 20.2047). The primary intelligence requirement is to detect the preparation and movement of strike munitions to provide early warning.
3. Finalize and Disseminate Contingency Plans (Urgent J3 Priority): The threat of a complete logistics failure for the Pokrovsk sector is now active and credible. Direct all Brigade-level commands on the axis to immediately finalize and rehearse pre-planned withdrawal routes and occupation of secondary/tertiary defensive lines.

//END REPORT//