1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The RF operational design to sever logistics to the Pokrovsk front has been successfully executed, with confirmation of a disabling kinetic strike on the Kamyan’ske rail hub. NEW SAR intelligence indicates RF is now ACCELERATING reconstitution for a follow-on strike at two critical GRAU arsenals, suggesting an imminent attempt to interdict the now-vital road-based ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and achieve total isolation of the salient.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• RF Munitions Posture (STATUS CHANGE: RECONSTITUTING -> ACCELERATING FOR IMMINENT STRIKE): NEW SAR data provides high-confidence evidence that RF preparations for a follow-on strike are accelerating beyond previous estimates.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The two previously identified arsenals are showing a SURGE in activity. The Missile Arsenal (54.5879, 20.2047) in Kaliningrad Oblast shows a rising trend (Score: 22.57).
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) A NEWLY DESIGNATED critical node, the 2652th Artillery Armament and Ammunition Base (54.7594, 20.1299), shows a sharp spike in activity (Score: 28.40) and is assessed as the primary source for the next strike package.
• UAF Logistics Posture (STATUS CHANGE: DEGRADED -> CRITICAL/INTERDICTED): The attack on the Kamyan’ske rail hub is now confirmed as a successful interdiction of the primary rail GLOC to the Donbas front. UAF J4 operations for the Pokrovsk sector are now wholly dependent on high-risk road transport through a contested operational rear.
• Environmental Factors (NEW): A G3 level geomagnetic storm is now active over the operational area. This may degrade the accuracy of GNSS-dependent precision systems for both friendly and enemy forces and impact long-range UAS command and control links.
• Strategic Support (NEW): The EU Council and Parliament have formally agreed to redirect funds for military aid and support Ukraine's accession to the European Defence Fund. This provides a significant long-term strategic advantage in materiel and financial sustainment.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• RF Follow-on Precision Strike (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - IMMINENT): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat has escalated from "High" to "Critical." The confirmed acceleration of strike package preparation at the two GRAU arsenals indicates the window for a follow-on strike is narrowing. The most likely targets are critical road junctions, bridges, or UAF engineering repair crews to complete the isolation of Pokrovsk.
• RF Infiltration in Operational Depth (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - UNCHANGED/POISED): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat from RF SpN groups in the Kostiantynivka-Myrnohrad sector remains active and kinetic. The successful rail interdiction has elevated the criticality of their mission; they are now positioned to interdict the only remaining GLOCs to the Pokrovsk front.
• Geomagnetic Interference (THREAT LEVEL: LOW-MEDIUM - NEW): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The active G3 storm introduces unpredictability. It poses a moderate risk to the effectiveness of RF precision munitions (e.g., KABs) but could also disrupt UAF FPV and ISR drone operations in the Pokrovsk rear.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Logistics Domain: The operational rear of the Pokrovsk salient is in a state of logistics crisis. The confirmed strike on the Zaporizhzhia-Kamyan’ske railway station has forced a full pivot to road-based resupply through an area where RF SpN groups are confirmed active.
• Air/Strike Domain (RF): RF successfully executed its operational design: a mass UAV saturation attack (108 platforms confirmed neutralized by UAF AD) fixed and attritted air defenses, enabling a successful precision strike on the Kamyan’ske rail node. RF is now in a BDA and rapid re-arming phase for the next kinetic action.
• Air/Strike Domain (UAF): UAF forces achieved a major tactical victory by neutralizing the large-scale RF UAV swarm. Strategic initiative was maintained with a successful deep strike on the Kostroma GRES, continuing to impose systemic costs on RF critical energy infrastructure.
• Ground Domain: The tactical situation on the Pokrovsk axis remains "critically dynamic" with sustained high-intensity engagements. While specialist units like the 79th DShV Brigade are performing effectively in close-quarters combat, the operational viability of the defense is now threatened by the rear-area logistics crisis.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• PRIORITY 1 (CRITICAL - REFINED/URGENT): Characterize the ACCELERATING activity at the Missile Arsenal (54.5879, 20.2047) and the 2652th Artillery Armament and Ammunition Base (54.7594, 20.1299). Collection must focus on identifying specific munition types (Iskander, Kalibr) and detecting outbound movement of TELs or associated transport assets to provide time-critical warning of an impending strike.
• PRIORITY 2 (CRITICAL - UNCHANGED): Determine the full Order of Battle (OOB), C2 structure, and specific targeting list of the RF SpN elements (57th orSpN) active in the Kostiantynivka-Myrnohrad sector. Neutralizing this threat is now paramount to sustaining the Pokrovsk defense.
• PRIORITY 3 (HIGH - URGENT): Quantify the estimated time to repair (ETR) for the Kamyan’ske rail lines. This engineering assessment is the single most critical factor for determining the duration of high-risk road transport operations and the window of vulnerability for the Pokrovsk salient.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY COA (Complete GLOC Severance): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will launch a precision missile strike, originating from assets prepared at the surging GRAU arsenals, against a pre-identified critical road bridge or junction supporting the Kamyan’ske bypass. This strike will be synchronized with kinetic action by SpN groups (ambush, IEDs) against a high-value logistics convoy. The combined effect will aim to achieve the complete, albeit temporary, severing of all GLOCs to Pokrovsk.
• MOST DANGEROUS COA (Exploit Tactical Breach): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Following the successful execution of the MLCOA, RF ground forces at Pokrovsk, enabled by local fire superiority from the logistics disruption, will commit tactical reserves to achieve a deep penetration (5-10km) on a weakened axis. The objective is to collapse the UAF defensive line and force a disorderly withdrawal from the salient before GLOCs can be restored.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Elevate Operation VIPER HUNT to Joint Priority (IMMEDIATE): The window to neutralize the SpN threat is closing. Direct J3 and GUR to immediately resource and execute a joint hunter-killer campaign in the Kostiantynivka-Myrnohrad sector. The objective is to find, fix, and destroy the confirmed 57th orSpN elements before the anticipated follow-on precision strike materializes.
2. Execute IMMEDIATE ISR Surge on Critical GRAU Arsenals (IMMEDIATE J2 Priority): Retask all-domain ISR assets for persistent, 24/7 coverage of the Missile Arsenal (54.5879, 20.2047) and the 2652th Artillery Armament and Ammunition Base (54.7594, 20.1299). The PIR is the detection of outbound movement of strike systems (e.g., TELs) or related logistical transport to provide immediate launch warning.
3. Mandate Operation IRON CLAW Convoy Protocol (IMMEDIATE J4/J3 Priority): The threat is no longer hypothetical. Direct that all logistics convoys transiting the Pokrovsk operational rear will move under armored escort (minimum 2x IFV/APC per 5-vehicle convoy) with dedicated overhead FPV/ISR drone coverage. This TTP is now mandatory to mitigate the MDCOA.

//END REPORT//