INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY: 241300Z SEP 25

REPORT DATE: Wednesday, September 24, 2025

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) CRITICAL NEW Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have executed a successful, large-scale combined-arms deep strike on the Russian Federation (RF) naval base and port facilities at Novorossiysk, employing both Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs), resulting in confirmed casualties and damage to critical infrastructure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW RF has intensified its ground offensive in Kupiansk, with multiple sources confirming the capture of an additional 115 buildings, progressing its objective of partial encirclement. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW RF has escalated its air campaign with ballistic missile strikes on the city of Dnipro, indicating a willingness to employ higher-end assets against major urban centers.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• UAF Deep Strike Campaign (Significant Escalation): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW The previous report highlighted a sustained UAF drone campaign against Moscow. The current period marks a significant operational escalation with a successful combined UAV/USV attack on the strategic port of Novorossiysk. This attack on a major Black Sea Fleet naval base and economic hub represents a NEW and critical evolution of UAF deep strike capability. UAF also conducted a second confirmed strike on the "Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat" petrochemical complex in Bashkiria, confirming a sustained campaign against RF energy infrastructure.
• Ground Warfare - Kupiansk Axis (Progression): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) CHANGED Yesterday's report noted an unverified RF claim of "partial encirclement." Today, multiple RF sources, including the MoD, have substantiated this claim with reports of capturing an additional 115 buildings in the city. This represents a tangible progression of RF's urban assault and increases the threat to the UAF grouping in the area.
• RF Air Warfare (New Capability Deployed): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW While the previous report focused on sustained КАБ/FAB and UAV strikes, this period saw the confirmed use of ballistic missiles against the city of Dnipro, resulting in powerful explosions and fires. This represents the employment of a more sophisticated and destructive capability against a major urban center not previously highlighted as a primary target in recent reports.
• Zaporizhzhia Air Strikes (Sustained with New BDA): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) SUSTAINED The pattern of lethal nightly strikes on Zaporizhzhia has continued for a third consecutive night. NEW Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) indicates strikes on critical defense-related industrial sites, specifically Motor Sich, and confirms a rise in civilian casualties to 1 killed and 15 injured.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• RF Ground Forces (THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE - INCREASED): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat level has increased from the previous report. RF's concrete territorial gains within Kupiansk (115 buildings) lend credibility to its encirclement objective, posing a severe and immediate threat to UAF forces. RF's continued multi-axis pressure, including confirmed advances in Dnipropetrovsk and claims of liberating Zarichne (Kirovsk) on the Lyman direction, demonstrates its capacity to maintain operational initiative and fix UAF reserves.
• RF Air/Missile Strikes (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - SUSTAINED): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat remains CRITICAL. The NEW use of ballistic missiles against Dnipro signals an expansion of high-threat systems against rear-area cities. The sustained, multi-night КАБ and UAV campaign against Zaporizhzhia, now confirmed to be targeting key defense industry facilities (Motor Sich), continues to pose a critical threat to both civilian life and Ukraine's warfighting capacity.
• RF Retaliatory Strikes (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - IMMINENT): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The successful and damaging UAF deep strike on Novorossiysk makes a large-scale retaliatory RF missile or drone strike against a major Ukrainian city or port (e.g., Odesa) highly probable within the next 24-72 hours. The intent will be punitive and aimed at demonstrating a harsh response to attacks on RF strategic assets.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• UAF Deep Strike - Novorossiysk Port (NEW):
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF conducted a combined UAV and USV attack on Novorossiysk port, a critical RF Black Sea Fleet base and oil export hub.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF sources confirm 2 fatalities and at least 8 injured. A state of emergency has been declared in the city.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Confirmed damage to multiple residential buildings, a hotel, and the office of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a critical piece of energy infrastructure.
• RF Air/Missile Strikes - Dnipro (NEW):
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Multiple sources confirm RF launched ballistic missiles targeting Dnipro, resulting in powerful explosions and large fires.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) An RF "Orlan" reconnaissance UAV was observed operating over the city, likely for targeting and BDA.
• Ground Warfare - Kupiansk Axis (PROGRESSED):
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF MoD and multiple corroborating sources report RF forces captured an additional 115 buildings in Kupiansk, continuing to tighten a partial encirclement.
  • (LOW CONFIDENCE) RF sources released video evidence of an alleged UAF surrender in the area; this is assessed as likely propaganda but indicates RF's IO focus.
• Ground Warfare - Other Axes:
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF General Staff reports repelling 95 combat engagements over the last 24 hours, with particularly intense fighting on the Kupiansk (18/19 assaults repelled) and Pokrovsk (15 assaults repelled) axes.
  • (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF sources claim the completion of the "liberation" of Zarichne (Kirovsk) near Krasny Lyman, which would threaten UAF logistics on the Siversk axis if confirmed.
• RF Air Strikes - Zaporizhzhia (SUSTAINED):
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF continued its multi-night air campaign against Zaporizhzhia, using a combination of FAB/КАБ munitions and Shahed UAVs.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) BDA confirms strikes on critical defense-industrial sites (Motor Sich). Civilian casualties have risen to 1 killed, 15 injured.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• CRITICAL (NEW - PRIORITY 1): Obtain comprehensive BDA of the UAF strike on Novorossiysk port. Task all-source ISR to identify specific naval assets, port logistics infrastructure (fuel/ammo depots, loading cranes), and CPC facilities damaged or destroyed to assess the full strategic impact.
• CRITICAL (PERSISTING - PRIORITY 2): Urgently verify the current UAF force posture and logistical viability within Kupiansk following confirmed RF urban gains. Determine RF intent and capability to complete a full encirclement.
• HIGH (NEW - PRIORITY 3): Obtain BDA and identify specific targets of the RF ballistic missile strikes on Dnipro. Assess RF intent for follow-on strikes.
• MEDIUM (PERSISTING): Continue to seek verification of RF claims of full fire control over the Krasny Lyman-Siversk highway and the tactical implications of the claimed capture of Zarichne (Kirovsk).

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY COA (RF RETALIATION): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will conduct a large-scale punitive strike in response to the Novorossiysk attack. The most probable target is Odesa, given its symmetrical value as a major port city. The strike will likely involve a multi-domain barrage of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and UAVs, targeting port infrastructure and civilian centers to maximize both physical and psychological impact.
• MOST LIKELY COA (RF GROUND): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will press its advantage in Kupiansk, committing forces to clear the remaining urban sectors under UAF control and attempt to close the encirclement. IO will heavily feature surrender appeals and amplify claims of UAF units being trapped. High-attrition assaults on the Pokrovsk axis will continue to fix UAF forces.
• MOST LIKELY COA (UAF DEEP STRIKE): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) UAF will likely attempt to conduct follow-on deep strikes to capitalize on the success at Novorossiysk. Potential targets include other RF Black Sea naval assets or logistical hubs near Tuapse or within occupied Crimea to maintain pressure and disrupt RF naval operations.
• MOST DANGEROUS COA (RF ESCALATION): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF, framing the Novorossiysk attack as a "terrorist attack on civilians," uses it as a pretext to launch a massive, indiscriminate missile and КАБ strike campaign against a major Ukrainian city center far from the front lines, such as Kyiv or Lviv, with the explicit goal of causing mass casualties and terror, abandoning any pretense of targeting military objectives.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize Port Air Defense: Immediately elevate the air and missile defense posture for Odesa and other major port cities. Re-task mobile air defense assets, including C-UAS and anti-ship missile systems, to defend against an imminent and likely severe RF retaliatory strike.
2. Amplify Novorossiysk Success: Direct STRATCOM to immediately launch a global information campaign highlighting the successful strike on Novorossiysk. Emphasize UAF's capability to hold high-value Russian strategic assets at risk, countering the RF narrative of inevitable victory and bolstering domestic/international support.
3. Reinforce Dnipro Air Defense: Given the NEW ballistic missile threat, immediately review and reinforce the air defense architecture around Dnipro to counter this specific threat vector.
4. Assess and Plan for Kupiansk Contingency: Task operational planners to develop immediate contingency plans for the UAF grouping in Kupiansk, including options for reinforcement, localized counter-attack to relieve pressure, or a deliberate tactical withdrawal to prevent encirclement. This requires the urgent ISR outlined in IGAP #2.
5. Target RF IO on Kupiansk Surrender: Direct PSYOP to counter RF surrender appeals targeting UAF forces in Kupiansk. Amplify messages of UAF resilience, successful repulsion of the majority of assaults, and the high casualty rates being suffered by attacking RF forces to stiffen resolve.

//END REPORT//