INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY: 221300Z SEP 25

REPORT DATE: Monday, September 22, 2025

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW Russian Federation (RF) forces have significantly re-escalated air attacks, launching approximately 141 UAVs overnight—a sharp reversal from the previous day's lull. These strikes caused widespread civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, most notably a guided aerial bomb (КАБ) attack in Zaporizhzhia that killed three civilians. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW In a major strategic policy shift, President Putin announced Russia will abandon the moratorium on and deploy intermediate-range missiles, citing the degradation of strategic stability.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• Air Warfare (Massive Re-escalation, Focus on Civilian Targets): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) CHANGED RF air activity has dramatically increased from ~54 UAVs to a large-scale wave of ~141 UAVs (including 80 Shaheds) and missiles. The primary focus of these NEW strikes was civilian infrastructure in urban centers, including residential buildings in Kyiv Oblast, industrial/educational facilities in Sumy, and a lethal guided aerial bomb (КАБ) attack on Zaporizhzhia, resulting in at least three confirmed fatalities. This marks a deliberate return to mass-scale strikes aimed at terrorizing the civilian population.
• Deep Strikes (UAF Sustains Campaign, New Target Sets): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) CHANGED UAF continues its strategic deep strike campaign with NEW successful operations. Following yesterday's strike on Mi-8 helicopters, UAF GUR has now struck two RF Be-12 "Chaika" amphibious aircraft in Crimea. NEW UAF has also expanded its campaign against RF air defense assets, hitting an S-400 system in Kaluga Oblast, RF. UAF strikes on a sanatorium in Foros, Crimea, resulted in confirmed RF personnel casualties (3 killed, 16 wounded), with UAF sources suggesting the target was a departmental FSB facility.
• Ground Warfare (UAF Claims Major Advance, RF Minor Gains): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) CHANGED While RF claims a NEW territorial gain at Kalynivske (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), the most significant change is a UAF-claimed advance. UAF reports the liberation of 164.5 sq. km on the Dobropillya direction, representing a major shift in local operational initiative not present in the previous report. Intense fighting persists on the Pokrovsk axis, with new evidence of extremely low RF morale.
• Strategic Posture (RF Escalates Nuclear Signaling): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW In a significant strategic development, President Putin has announced Russia will abandon its moratorium on intermediate-range missiles and proceed with their deployment. This fundamentally alters the strategic threat landscape and represents a major escalation in nuclear signaling towards NATO.
• NATO Border Provocation (Diplomatic Escalation): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) CHANGED Following the discovery of an RF drone in Poland, the situation has escalated diplomatically. Estonia has formally called for an emergency NATO meeting and a UN Security Council meeting in response to RF's recent airspace violation, moving the issue from a bilateral incident to a full alliance-level concern.
• Logistical Warfare (New Evidence of UAF Success): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) NEW Direct evidence has emerged from RF sources that UAF heavy drones are successfully interdicting RF logistics by remotely mining supply routes, causing casualties for at least four consecutive days. This confirms a highly effective and persistent UAF tactical adaptation.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• RF Air/Missile Strikes (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - INCREASED FROM SEVERE): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat has returned to CRITICAL. The NEW massive UAV wave confirms RF's capability and intent to conduct large-scale saturation attacks are fully restored. The confirmed use of КАБ munitions against dense residential areas in Zaporizhzhia represents a severe and indiscriminate threat to civilians in all frontline cities. The combination of harassing drone waves and potential mass missile strikes poses a critical risk to both civilian infrastructure and UAF air defense assets over the next 24-72 hours.
• RF Ground Forces (THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE - SUSTAINED): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat remains SEVERE. Despite evidence of poor morale on the Pokrovsk axis and the NEW UAF counter-offensive on the Dobropillya direction, RF forces continue to hold the broader operational initiative and have claimed a NEW gain at Kalynivske. RF capacity to conduct high-attrition assaults remains high.
• RF Hybrid Warfare / EW (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - SUSTAINED): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat level remains CRITICAL. The NEW announcement by President Putin regarding intermediate-range missiles significantly increases strategic-level risk and nuclear signaling. This, combined with Estonia's call for an emergency NATO meeting, indicates the hybrid threat environment has become more volatile and unpredictable.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Air Warfare - RF Re-escalation (NEW):
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Overnight, RF launched ~141 UAVs (including 80 Shaheds) and a number of missiles. UAF Air Defense successfully intercepted/suppressed 132.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Confirmed impacts on residential buildings in Boryspil district, Kyiv Oblast (1 injured); industrial/educational facilities in Sumy (2 injured); and civilian infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia (3 killed, 2 injured) from a КАБ strike. An unexploded КАБ was also found in Zaporizhzhia.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) An RF strike damaged a UAF passenger train in Poltava Oblast.
• Deep Strike - UAF Campaign (NEW):
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF GUR successfully struck two Russian Be-12 "Chaika" amphibious aircraft and one Mi-8 helicopter in occupied Crimea.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF SSO successfully struck an S-400 "Triumph" air defense system in Kaluga Oblast, RF.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF drone attack on a sanatorium/school in Foros, Crimea, resulted in 3 confirmed RF personnel fatalities and 16 wounded. RF claims the target was civilian; UAF-aligned sources claim it was an FSB facility.
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) UAF claims successful strikes on energy facilities in Krasnodar Krai and Yaroslavl, RF.
• Ground Warfare - UAF Advance (NEW):
  • (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) UAF General Staff reports advances on the Dobropillya direction, with 164.5 sq. km liberated.
• Ground Warfare - RF Advances (NEW):
  • (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF sources claim the liberation of Kalynivske (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast) and Olhivske (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).
• Logistical Warfare - UAF Success (NEW):
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF serviceman reports UAF heavy drones have been successfully mining RF logistical routes for four consecutive days, causing casualties and disruption.
• RF Strategic Posture Change (NEW):
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) President Putin announced Russia will abandon its INF Treaty moratorium and deploy intermediate-range missiles.
• NATO Border Escalation (NEW):
  • (HIGH CONFIDENCE) Estonia has called for an emergency NATO meeting and a UN Security Council meeting following RF provocations.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• CRITICAL (PERSISTING - PRIORITY 1): Obtain comprehensive BDA for the 20 SEP massive RF air strike and the NEW 22 SEP large-scale UAV strike. Priority is to assess RF targeting priorities, success rates, and the current readiness level of UAF air defense munitions and systems.
• CRITICAL (NEW - PRIORITY 2): Verify the UAF claim of liberating 164.5 sq. km on the Dobropillya direction. Task all-source ISR to confirm the new Line of Contact (LOC), identify UAF force posture, and assess the potential for further exploitation.
• HIGH (NEW - PRIORITY 3): Assess the immediate and observable implications of Putin's announcement regarding intermediate-range missiles. Task strategic ISR (SIGINT, IMINT) to monitor for any changes in RF missile force posture, deployments, or alert levels.
• HIGH (PERSISTING): Assess the primary reason for General Lapin's dismissal and its impact on the C2 of RF's "Center" and Leningrad Military District forces.
• MEDIUM (NEW): Obtain BDA for the UAF strikes on the Be-12 aircraft in Crimea and the S-400 system in Kaluga Oblast to confirm the extent of damage and impact on RF capabilities.
• MEDIUM (NEW): Verify the military significance of the UAF-struck sanatorium in Foros, Crimea. Confirm presence of FSB or other military personnel to counter RF's "civilian target" narrative.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY COA (RF AIR): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will continue to launch harassing waves of UAVs and persistent КАБ strikes to maintain pressure on UAF air defenses and terrorize civilian populations. The objective will be to fix AD assets and identify vulnerabilities for another potential mass missile strike within the next 72 hours. Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kyiv Oblasts will remain high-risk areas.
• MOST LIKELY COA (RF GROUND): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will attempt to contain the UAF advance on the Dobropillya direction by redeploying local reserves and increasing artillery/air support. Simultaneously, RF will intensify pressure on the Pokrovsk axis to force UAF to divert resources, seeking to exploit the extremely poor morale of its own frontline troops through coercive measures.
• MOST LIKELY COA (RF IO): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO will pivot to three main narratives: 1) Frame the Foros strike as a deliberate UAF terrorist attack on civilians, using casualty figures to generate outrage. 2) Justify Putin's missile announcement as a necessary defensive response to NATO aggression. 3) Downplay or ignore the UAF advance on the Dobropillya direction while exaggerating minor RF gains.
• MOST DANGEROUS COA (RF STRATEGIC): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) Following Putin's announcement, RF could conduct a highly publicized test launch or deployment of a previously treaty-banned intermediate-range missile system (e.g., 9M729). This would be a deliberate act of strategic escalation aimed at intimidating NATO and forcing de-escalation on RF's terms, dramatically increasing the risk of miscalculation.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Prioritize Air Defense for Urban Centers: Immediately re-task mobile air defense and C-UAS assets to provide layered defense for Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Kyiv. The recent attacks confirm these cities are primary targets for RF strikes intended to cause mass civilian casualties.
2. Exploit Dobropillya Counter-Offensive: Immediately dedicate priority ISR, fire support, and electronic warfare assets to the Dobropillya direction. Capitalize on the reported 164.5 sq. km gain to disrupt RF C2 and logistics, enabling further exploitation before RF can stabilize its lines.
3. Counter RF Narrative on Foros Strike: Direct PSYOP and STRATCOM to immediately counter the RF "terrorist attack" narrative regarding the Foros sanatorium strike. Amplify evidence suggesting it was a legitimate military (FSB) target and contrast this with verifiable RF atrocities, such as the deliberate КАБ strike on the Zaporizhzhia apartment building.
4. Coordinate Urgent NATO Response to Missile Threat: Immediately engage with NATO military and political counterparts to develop a unified, firm response to Putin's intermediate-range missile announcement. Coordinate strategic ISR to monitor for RF deployment preparations and prepare joint diplomatic and military signaling options to deter further escalation.
5. Amplify UAF Deep Strike Successes: Task STRATCOM to widely publicize the successful strikes on the Be-12 aircraft and the S-400 system. This reinforces the narrative of UAF's technical superiority and ability to degrade high-value RF assets, boosting domestic and military morale.
6. Expand Tactical Interdiction of RF Logistics: Given the confirmed success of UAF drones mining RF supply routes, expand this TTP to other critical RF ground lines of communication (GLOCs), particularly those supporting defensive operations against the UAF Dobropillya advance.

//END REPORT//