DTG: 151300Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 141300Z NOV 25 – 151300Z NOV 25 SUBJECT: Intelligence Summary - CONFIRMED Logistics Interdiction; RF Strike Reconstitution Posture Assessed

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The kinetic interdiction of the Zaporizhzhia-Kamyan’ske railway station is now fully confirmed by multiple sources, creating a critical dependency on vulnerable road-based GLOCs. NEW SAR intelligence indicates a second major RF missile arsenal has been expended, significantly reducing the immediate threat of another large-scale strike. The paramount threat remains imminent kinetic action by RF Spetsnaz (SpN) elements against UAF logistics convoys in the Kostiantynivka sector.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• Logistical Posture (STATUS CHANGE: CRITICAL → CONFIRMED CRISIS): The successful RF strike against the Zaporizhzhia-Kamyan’ske railway station, which severed the primary rail GLOC, is now explicitly confirmed by the Ukrainian Railways (UZ) CEO. The scale of the preceding saturation attack is quantified by UAF Air Force claims of neutralizing 108 UAVs. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Strike Reconstitution (SIGNIFICANT NEW DEVELOPMENT): The post-expenditure status of the '2652th Artillery Armament Base' is re-confirmed by new SAR data. NEW: SAR analysis now shows that a second key 'Missile Arsenal' (54.5879, 20.2047) has also been expended, with its activity score falling to 0.00. Activity at other GRAU arsenals remains STABLE but is not surging, indicating RF has culminated its current strike package and is not yet initiating an immediate reconstitution cycle. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Air Defense Posture (STATUS CHANGE: CORROBORATED → CONFIRMED & ONGOING): Previous assessments of RF AD hardening are now re-confirmed by NEW SAR trend data showing continued RISING activity at specific sites, notably the 183rd and 1545th Guards Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiments. This indicates a deliberate and ongoing effort to protect rear-area assets from UAF deep strikes. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• UAF Strategic Support (NEW DEVELOPMENT): The EU Council and Parliament have formally agreed to redirect civilian funds for military aid and support Ukraine's accession to the European Defence Fund. This provides a major long-term strategic assurance for UAF materiel and financial sustainment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• RF SpN Kinetic Action (THREAT LEVEL: PARAMOUNT - UNCHANGED): The threat of kinetic attacks (ambush, IEDs, FPV drone strikes) by RF SpN elements against UAF logistics convoys remains the paramount and most immediate operational danger. The confirmed rail interdiction creates a decisive window for these elements to paralyze the now-essential road GLOCs through Kostiantynivka. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Follow-on Strikes (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH → MEDIUM-LOW): The threat of another immediate (next 24-48 hours) large-scale RF strike is significantly reduced. Analytical judgment based on SAR data showing two key arsenals expended suggests RF must now enter a reconstitution phase before another massed strike is feasible. A new strike wave is unlikely for at least 72+ hours. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• RF AD Hardening (THREAT LEVEL: MEDIUM - UNCHANGED): The confirmed, ongoing enhancement of RF AD posture represents a persistent and growing threat to future UAF deep strike operations, increasing risk to long-range UAS and cruise missile platforms. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Logistics Domain: UZ CEO confirmation of the Kamyan’ske rail strike solidifies the operational crisis. UAF is now wholly dependent on road transport through a contested operational rear for sustaining the Pokrovsk salient.
• Information Domain: RF is executing a two-pronged IO campaign: 1) tactical morale-boosting by displaying captured UAF UAV debris to its own forces, and 2) strategic demoralization by amplifying Western media reports of casualties among elite UAF units.
• Strategic Domain: The EU funding agreement represents a significant strategic victory for Ukraine, ensuring long-term resource flow and countering RF narratives of waning Western support.
• Air Domain: UAF DShV units (79th Brigade) are demonstrating high proficiency in CQC, effectively employing FPV drones to clear RF positions, indicating tactical adaptation and success at the small-unit level.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• PRIORITY 1 (CRITICAL - UNCHANGED): Determine OOB, C2 structure, and specific targeting plans for RF SpN elements in the Kostiantynivka-Myrnohrad sector. This remains the most critical intelligence requirement.
• PRIORITY 2 (CRITICAL - UNCHANGED): Obtain definitive BDA and Estimated Time to Repair (ETR) for the Kamyan’ske railway station to quantify the duration of the logistics crisis.
• PRIORITY 3 (HIGH - REFINED): Assess RF strike reconstitution timeline. Monitor the STABLE RF arsenals for initial indicators of a new surge in activity (e.g., increased transport movement). Determine which specific munition types were depleted from the two expended arsenals.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY COA (SpN Exploitation & Frontline Pressure): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF SpN elements will execute kinetic attacks on UAF logistics convoys and temporary transloading points along the Kamyan’ske road bypass routes within the next 24 hours to maximize disruption. RF ground forces will maintain high-tempo assaults on the Pokrovsk axis to fix UAF units and exploit any resulting logistical shortfalls. RF ISR will actively conduct BDA on the Kamyan’ske rail hub.
• MOST DANGEROUS COA (Synchronized Operational Collapse): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The probability of this COA remains elevated. A successful SpN interdiction of road GLOCs is synchronized with a renewed high-intensity RF ground assault at Pokrovsk, causing a logistics-driven collapse of the UAF frontline and enabling an operational breach. The primary trigger remains the successful paralysis of road-based supply for >18 hours.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Execute Operation IRON CLAW (IMMEDIATE/MANDATORY - J4/J3): Re-confirm and enforce with zero exceptions the standing order for mandatory armored escort and dedicated overhead ISR for ALL logistics convoys operating in the Kostiantynivka sector.
2. Execute VIPER HUNT (ONGOING/URGENT - J3/GUR): Maintain the priority re-tasking of all available SOF, C-UAS, and SIGINT assets to the Kostiantynivka-Myrnohrad sector to preemptively neutralize RF SpN cells.
3. Update Dynamic Targeting (IMMEDIATE - J2/J3 Fires): NEW: De-prioritize the 'Missile Arsenal' at coordinates 54.5879, 20.2047, in addition to the '2652th Artillery Armament Base', as both are assessed as expended. Maintain targeting solutions on the newly active RF AD Regiment sites and monitor the remaining STABLE GRAU arsenals for indicators of a new reconstitution cycle.
4. Accelerate Engineer Assessment (URGENT - J4/ENGINEERS): Reiterate the critical, time-sensitive requirement for a detailed BDA and ETR of the Kamyan’ske rail hub to be delivered to J3/J4 planners within the next 12 hours.

//END OF REPORT//