1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The tactical situation in Pokrovsk has critically evolved: Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) GUR successfully established a ground reinforcement corridor to besieged defenders, a significant tactical success. However, this is set against a NEW strategic-level threat, with intelligence confirming Russian Federation (RF) has quadrupled its 2025 Shahed UAV launch rate, indicating a high probability of an imminent, large-scale saturation strike against Ukrainian critical infrastructure or logistics hubs.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• Pokrovsk Urban Defense (CRITICAL CHANGE): The operational picture has shifted from a simple RF penetration to a dynamic urban battle. NEW: UAF GUR has successfully executed a link-up operation, establishing a ground corridor to reinforce defenders. This fundamentally alters the immediate tactical situation, countering RF attempts at encirclement.
• RF Tactical Doctrine (NEW): RF has formalized and is actively employing an infiltration doctrine (просачивание) using small SpN/infantry groups to bypass static defenses and target UAF logistics (MTO) before main force commitment.
• Primary RF Fire Support (NEW): RF ground assault on Pokrovsk is now heavily enabled by massed Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes, with IO channels explicitly stating intent to sever the Pokrovsk-Huliaipole ground line of communication (GLOC).
• Strategic Deep Strike Threat (SIGNIFICANTLY UPGRADED): The threat has escalated from high to critical. NEW intelligence confirms a fourfold increase in RF Shahed UAV launches in 2025 vs. 2024. This, combined with NEW SAR analysis showing rising activity at a GRAU Missile Arsenal and multiple airbases, indicates RF possesses the capacity and is likely preparing for a large-scale saturation strike.
• UAF Deep Strike Success (CONTINUED/ESCALATED): UAF has expanded its successful logistics interdiction from the tactical/operational level (POL/MTS depots in Luhansk) to the strategic, NEWLY forcing operational suspensions at major petrochemical plants deep inside RF territory (Bashkiria, Nizhny Novgorod).
• UAF Resilience Posture (NEW): UAF has proactively passed legislation to harden national telecommunications infrastructure, a direct countermeasure to the anticipated RF campaign against the power grid and C2 nodes.
• Internal Security Threat: No significant NEW developments regarding the RF saboteur network identified in the previous report. Counter-intelligence exploitation continues.

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• RF Strategic Saturation Strike (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - NEW): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The confirmed massive increase in Shahed UAV production/inventory, corroborated by SAR activity at missile arsenals, presents an imminent threat of a large-scale, coordinated strike designed to overwhelm air defenses and cause systemic failure in Ukraine's energy grid or military logistics network.
• Interdiction of Pokrovsk GLOCs (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - EVOLVED): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The threat to Pokrovsk has evolved. The primary danger is now a combined-arms effort where RF infiltration groups and KAB strikes are focused on isolating the city by severing its supply lines, nullifying the recent UAF reinforcement success.
• RF Counter-UAS Hunter-Killer Teams (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH - NEW): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) The doctrinal shift and deployment of specialized RF units to hunt UAF UAV operators constitutes a new, high-priority tactical threat. Success in this domain would degrade UAF's primary asymmetric advantage in ISR and precision fires, directly impacting defensive effectiveness on the Donetsk front.

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Ground Domain - Donetsk Oblast: (HIGH CONFIDENCE - NEW) UAF GUR has established a ground corridor and reinforced defenders inside Pokrovsk. RF forces are responding with intensified KAB strikes and employing просачивание infiltration tactics to interdict UAF logistics west of the city.
• Deep Strike Domain (UAF): (HIGH CONFIDENCE - NEW) UAF long-range assets have successfully struck and forced the suspension of operations at major RF strategic targets, including the Nizhny Novgorod refinery and petrochemical facilities in Bashkiria.
• RF Air/Missile Posture: (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - NEW) SAR IMINT shows a CRITICAL and rising activity trend at a GRAU Missile Arsenal (54.5879, 20.2047) and rising trends at key airbases (Shaykovka, Chkalovsk), indicating preparations for a large-scale strike campaign.
• UAF Strategic C2: (HIGH CONFIDENCE - NEW) Legislative measures have been passed to ensure C2 and telecommunications resilience during potential blackouts, a direct response to the assessed RF deep strike threat.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• PRIORITY 1 (CRITICAL - REFINED): Determine the Order of Battle (OOB), C2 structure, and infiltration routes of the RF просачивание assault groups operating on the Pokrovsk axis to enable their proactive targeting. (Refines previous gap on RF OOB in Pokrovsk).
• PRIORITY 2 (CRITICAL - NEW): Identify the specific tactical airfields, forward arming/fueling points (FAFPs), and storage depots for KABs being used to support the Pokrovsk operation. This is essential for long-range precision fires tasking.
• PRIORITY 3 (HIGH - NEW): Establish a reliable estimate of the current RF Shahed-type UAV inventory and monthly production rate to accurately model the duration and intensity of the strategic saturation threat.
• PRIORITY 4 (HIGH - UNCHANGED): Determine the scale, deployment, and mission profiles of DPRK personnel integrated into RF forces via exploitation of captured personnel.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY COA (Isolate & Saturate): (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will make a concerted effort to neutralize the new UAF reinforcement corridor into Pokrovsk using intense KAB strikes, artillery, and infiltration team attacks. Concurrently, RF will launch a large-scale Shahed UAV strike wave (est. 50-80+ platforms) against CNI or logistics hubs in Central/Eastern Ukraine (likely Dnipropetrovsk/Poltava Oblasts) to maximize systemic disruption while UAF attention is fixed on Pokrovsk.
• MOST DANGEROUS COA (Synchronized Collapse): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF synchronizes the Shahed saturation strike on rear-area C2 and logistics with a maximum-effort push by просачивание groups to physically sever multiple GLOCs west of Pokrovsk. The aim would be to create operational paralysis, trapping the newly reinforced UAF elements and inducing a rapid, cascading collapse of the entire Pokrovsk defensive salient.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

1. Protect Pokrovsk Corridor (Urgent J2/J3/Fires Priority): Immediately task dedicated ISR assets (UAV, SIGINT) for persistent coverage of the new GUR reinforcement corridor. Authorize Time-Sensitive Targeting (TST) protocols for immediate engagement of any identified RF infiltration groups or fires assets threatening this lifeline.
2. Execute Pre-emptive Deep Strikes (Urgent J2/J3 Priority): Task the new tranche of Storm Shadow missiles and other long-range assets to prosecute targets associated with the RF KAB and missile threat. Prioritize confirmed KAB FAFPs/storage sites and the GRAU Missile Arsenal exhibiting CRITICAL activity on SAR IMINT. The objective is to disrupt the enablers for the Pokrovsk assault and degrade the imminent strategic strike capability.
3. Initiate Strategic Strike Dispersal Protocol (Urgent All Commands Priority): Issue a FLASH warning for an imminent large-scale RF Shahed strike. Mandate immediate dispersal of ammunition, fuel, and command posts at key logistics hubs. Task J3 (Air) to reposition mobile AD assets to provide layered defense for critical nodes supporting the Donbas front.

//END REPORT//