INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY

DTG: 121300Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 111300Z NOV 25 – 121300Z NOV 25 SUBJECT: Operational Response to Confirmed Logistics Interdiction and UAF Strategic Counter-Strike

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The kinetic interdiction of the Zaporizhzhia-Kamyan’ske railway station is now CONFIRMED, initiating a critical logistics crisis for the Pokrovsk salient. Concurrently, UAF has executed a successful strategic counter-interdiction strike against the Kostroma GRES deep inside RF territory. The immediate operational focus is now the preemption of the anticipated RF Spetsnaz (SpN) attack on vulnerable road-based Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs) in the Kostiantynivka sector, which is assessed as the next immediate step in the RF operational plan.

2. CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS

• Logistics Status (STATUS CHANGE: INTERDICTED → CONFIRMED OPERATIONAL CRISIS): NEW: The strike on the Zaporizhzhia-Kamyan’ske railway station is now fully confirmed by Ukrainian Railways (UZ), validating previous intelligence. The operational impact is no longer anticipated but is now an active crisis requiring immediate mitigation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• UAF Strategic Posture (STATUS CHANGE: DEFENSIVE → DEFENSIVE WITH STRATEGIC COUNTER-STRIKE): NEW: UAF has demonstrated expanded operational reach by successfully striking the Kostroma GRES power station. This action represents a significant escalation in UAF's counter-interdiction campaign, shifting from purely defensive actions to imposing direct costs on RF critical energy infrastructure deep within its territory. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Saturation Attack (STATUS CHANGE: EXECUTED → QUANTIFIED): NEW: The scale of the preceding RF UAV attack is now confirmed, with the Ukrainian Air Force reporting 108 enemy platforms neutralized. This quantifies the high volume of assets RF expended to fix Air Defense (AD) assets and achieve its primary objective. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Environmental Factors: NEW: A G3-level geomagnetic storm is active. This has the potential to degrade GPS-guided munitions (e.g., KAB, JDAM) and long-range UAS command links for both forces, while also potentially degrading RF Air Defense radar performance. This factor must now be included in operational planning. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

3. THREAT ASSESSMENT

• RF SpN Kinetic Action (THREAT LEVEL: CRITICAL - UNCHANGED but IMMINENT): The threat from RF SpN groups in the Kostiantynivka-Myrnohrad sector remains paramount. With the rail GLOC confirmed severed, the SpN mission to interdict the makeshift road GLOCs is now the decisive action for the RF to achieve the complete logistical isolation of Pokrovsk. An attack is expected imminently. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Follow-on Strikes (THREAT LEVEL: HIGH - PERSISTENT): Despite the high expenditure of UAVs, the threat of follow-on precision strikes persists. RF ISR will now prioritize identifying UAF logistics convoys and temporary transloading points for targeting. Rising activity trends at key GRAU depots (Missile Arsenal, 2652th Artillery Base) indicate RF is actively reconstituting strike packages for subsequent waves. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• RF Information Operations (THREAT LEVEL: MEDIUM - PERSISTENT): UPDATE: RF IO has intensified, now amplifying confirmed UAF casualties within the 35th Marine Brigade and displaying captured UAF UAV debris to degrade morale and create a narrative of UAF technical inferiority. This is synchronized with kinetic operations to maximize psychological impact. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

4. OPERATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

• UAF Deep Strike Domain: NEW: UAF conducted a successful long-range UAS strike on the Kostroma GRES, confirming the capability and intent to hold RF strategic energy assets at risk. This action directly supports UAF's strategic objective of imposing systemic costs on the RF war effort.
• UAF Air Defense Domain: UPDATE: UAF AD demonstrated high tactical effectiveness by neutralizing 108 RF UAVs in a single wave. However, this action proved insufficient to prevent the strategic effect of the subsequent kinetic strike on the primary logistics node, highlighting a persistent challenge.
• UAF Ground Domain: NEW: Despite the operational-level crisis, tactical effectiveness remains high. Units of the 79th DShV Brigade are confirmed conducting successful close-quarters combat and clearing operations on the Pokrovsk axis, leveraging FPV drones to attrit RF personnel.

5. INTELLIGENCE GAPS

• PRIORITY 1 (CRITICAL - UNCHANGED/URGENT): Determine the OOB, C2 structure, and specific targeting plan for RF SpN elements in the Kostiantynivka-Myrnohrad sector. This remains the most urgent intelligence requirement to prevent operational isolation.
• PRIORITY 2 (CRITICAL - UNCHANGED/URGENT): Obtain a detailed Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) of the Kamyan’ske railway station to quantify the loss of throughput capacity and produce an accurate Estimated Time to Repair (ETR) to inform operational sustainment planning.
• PRIORITY 3 (HIGH - UNCHANGED): Assess RF long-range strike asset inventory (Shahed UAVs, cruise/ballistic missiles) following the recent large-scale expenditure to predict the timeline for the next operational pulse.

6. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (NEXT 24-48 HOURS)

• MOST LIKELY COA (Coordinated GLOC Interdiction - UNCHANGED and VALIDATED): (VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE) With all preparatory shaping operations complete, RF SpN elements will execute multiple, coordinated kinetic attacks (ambush, IED, guided munitions) against UAF logistics convoys and command nodes on the Kamyan’ske road bypass within the next 24 hours. This will be supported by RF ISR assets attempting to provide real-time targeting for follow-on fires.
• MOST DANGEROUS COA (Synchronized Collapse - UNCHANGED): (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) The probability of this COA is contingent entirely on the success of the MLCOA. A successful SpN attack creates a logistics halt (>18 hours), starving frontline units. RF ground forces at Pokrovsk, exploiting this vulnerability, will launch a focused assault to achieve an operational penetration and force a disorderly withdrawal from the salient.

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

The following recommendations from the previous reporting period are UNCHANGED and URGENTLY REITERATED as their conditions are now fully met:

1. Execute Operation IRON CLAW (IMMEDIATE - J4/J3): Implement mandatory armored escort (min. 2x IFV/APC) and dedicated overhead ISR for all logistics convoys transiting the Kostiantynivka-Myrnohrad sector without exception.
2. Surge Assets for VIPER HUNT (IMMEDIATE - J3/GUR): Re-task all available SOF, C-UAS, and SIGINT assets to the Kostiantynivka sector to find, fix, and destroy the SpN threat before they execute their attack. The window for preemption is now minimal.
3. Expedite BDA & Engineering Plan (URGENT - J2/J4): Deliver a preliminary BDA and ETR for the Kamyan’ske rail lines within the next 4 hours to inform operational-level decisions on sustainment risk.
4. Finalize Phased Withdrawal Plans (URGENT - J3): Direct commanders on the Pokrovsk axis to confirm and rehearse phased withdrawal plans to secondary defensive lines as a prudent measure against the MDCOA.