(CONFIDENTIAL // UKRAINE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE)

Daily Intelligence Summary

Date: April 7, 2025 As of: 18:46 UTC Reporting Period: April 6, 18:00 UTC - April 7, 18:46 UTC

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I. Overall Strategic Situation & Key Assessments

• Operational Tempo: Combat intensity remains HIGH across the Eastern Front and the Northern Border regions. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported 77 combat engagements by 13:00 UTC, Apr 7. Russian forces continue large-scale offensive operations, characterized by heavy reliance on Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs), massed artillery, and drone swarms supporting ground assaults.
• Primary Threat Axes: The Pokrovsk, Lyman, and Toretsk directions remain the focal points of Russian ground offensives, experiencing the highest number of daily attacks. The Kursk/Sumy Border region also remains highly active, with ongoing engagements and significant Russian force concentration.
• Key Territorial Developments:
  • Russian Gains (Confirmed/Claimed):
    • Lyman Axis: Russian MoD officially claimed the capture of Katerynivka (W of Svatove). Reports indicate potential further advances near Nove and Nevske, contributing to a deteriorating situation for Ukrainian forces along this line.
    • Pokrovsk Axis: Russian sources claim full capture of Lysivka, reportedly acknowledged by Ukrainian sources. Advances also claimed within Shevchenko (western part).
    • Toretsk Axis: Russian sources claim expanded control West of Panteleimonivka and tactical successes on the Western outskirts of Toretsk city.
    • Novopavlivsk Axis: Multiple small advances claimed near Preobrazhenka, Sribne, Nadezhdinka, Rozlyv, Konstantynopil, Burlatske, and towards Komar and Shevchenko.
    • Kursk Border: Russian sources claim completing the clearing of Huyevo.
  • Ukrainian Control/Contested Status: Ukrainian forces maintain full control of Basivka (Sumy Oblast), refuting earlier Russian claims. Heavy fighting continues within Lysivka (Pokrovsk Axis) despite RU claims of full capture.
  • Russian Advance Rate Assessment: While Russian forces continue to make localized tactical gains, analysis (ISW) suggests the overall monthly rate of advance has decreased since late 2024, partially attributed to effective localized Ukrainian counterattacks, particularly on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes. However, Russia retains the initiative and offensive potential.
• Major Incident (Kryvyi Rih - Apr 4): The aftermath continues to dominate reporting. Confirmed 20 civilians Killed (incl. 9 children) and over 90 Wounded from a combined Iskander-M cluster munition strike and subsequent drone attack on a residential area. Ukraine is pursuing international condemnation via urgent UN and OSCE meetings. Ukrainian forces have conducted retaliatory strikes labeled "For Kryvyi Rih."
• Ukrainian Strategic Focus: High Command emphasis (Stavka meeting) placed on maximizing domestic drone production across all types (FPV, recon, long-range strike, ground robotics), including fiber-optic guided variants, aiming for self-sufficiency and technological advantage.
• Russian Strategic Posture: Kremlin maintains openness to ceasefire discussions but insists on achieving strategic objectives. Continued emphasis on adapting military training based on combat experience, particularly in drone/counter-drone warfare and urban combat. Ongoing spring conscription drive and reliance on prisoner recruitment suggest continued force generation efforts.

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II. Air, Missile & Drone Activity

• Russian Strike Activity:
  • KABs: Remain a primary tool and significant threat. Ongoing launches reported towards Sumy, Donetsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts throughout the day. 4 KABs confirmed hit Zolochiv community (Kharkiv Obl.) near Baranivka/Udy (Apr 7 PM). UGS reported 104 KABs used on Apr 6.
  • Drones: Continued high-volume use (2112 reported by UGS for Apr 6). Active attack drone threat reported for Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblasts (Apr 7 evening). Sustained attacks on Nikopol district (Dnipropetrovsk) resulted in 4 civilian injuries Apr 7.
  • Missiles: No major missile barrages reported in the latest cycle, but alerts indicate persistent threat capability (e.g., ballistic threat from Kursk region earlier today).
• Ukrainian Strikes & Air Defence:
  • Strategic Strikes (Claims - Verification Required):
    • Shaykovka Airfield (Kaluga Oblast, RU): Satellite analysis suggests potential UA strike damage to Tu-22M3 bomber base infrastructure, including missile maintenance/storage buildings (CyberBoroshno).
    • Saransk (Mordovia, RU): Previous claim of hitting a second target, the "Fiber Optics Engineering Center," critical for FPV/radar components (CyberBoroshno).
  • Tactical Strikes: Confirmed MiG-29 strike (AASM Hammer) on RU target in Kursk Oblast. Claimed strike destroying RU HQ in Tyotkino (Kursk Oblast).
  • Counter-Air/Drone: Confirmed destruction of RU Buk-M3 SAM system (Luhansk Oblast). GUR claimed downing 8 RU recon UAVs (Zala, Supercam, Orlan). 77,000+ RU targets reportedly hit by UA drones in March 2025 (Syrskyi).
• Naval: No Russian missile carriers reported in Black/Azov Seas (Apr 7 AM); 3 carriers (26 Kalibr) remain in Mediterranean. Kerch Bridge remains a declared target.

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III. Key Frontline Developments (Select Axes)

• Kursk/Sumy/Belgorod/Bryansk Border Region:
  • Intensity: High. UGS reported 6 RU attacks repelled, 3 ongoing in Kursk (13:00 UTC). Heavy RU shelling/airstrikes.
  • Territorial Control: Ukraine confirms control of Basivka (Sumy). Russia claims completing clearing of Huyevo (Kursk) and Demidovka/Popovka (Belgorod border).
  • Significant Claim (Abrams Tank): Heavy RU reporting/video evidence claims destruction of a UA M1 Abrams tank (hit mine, finished by FPV) and supporting BREM ARV near Turya, Sumy Oblast.
  • UA Activity: Confirmed MiG-29 strikes. Ongoing operations tying down RU forces.
  • Civilian Impact: RU claims UA FPV killed 1 civilian in Lemeshovka (Bryansk). UA source reports civilian distress/lack of aid in Podyvotye (Bryansk). RU reports heavy destruction in Malaya Loknya (Kursk).
  • RU Needs: Persistent appeals for EW, drones, medkits indicate strain.
• Lyman Axis:
  • Intensity: High (13 RU attacks, 6 ongoing - UGS 13:00 UTC).
  • RU Gains Claimed: Katerynivka liberated (RU MoD). Advances near Nove, Nevske. Attacks ongoing towards Novomykhailivka. Advances claimed S of Yampolivka towards Torske. Situation assessed as deteriorating for UA forces on Nove-Katerynivka-Nevske line.
  • UA Actions: 63rd Mech Bde repelled assault (14 RU KIA claimed).
• Pokrovsk Axis:
  • Intensity: Highest (30 RU attempts, 5 ongoing - UGS 13:00 UTC).
  • Fighting/Territorial Claims: Heavy fighting ongoing in Lysivka, RU claims eastern part secured, attacking N/W (DeepState/RU sources). RU claims advance within Shevchenko (western part). RU claims entry into Kotlyne. RU claims clearing Uspenivka.
  • UA Actions: Successful drone strikes reported ("Flying Skull"). Localized counterattacks assessed by ISW as slowing overall RU advance rate.
• Toretsk Axis:
  • Intensity: High (8 RU attacks, 1 ongoing - UGS 13:00 UTC).
  • RU Gains Claimed: Expanded control W of Panteleimonivka. Tactical success on W outskirts of Toretsk. Push towards Dyleyivka.
  • UA Actions: KORD units operating in urban Toretsk. Localized counterattacks previously assessed by ISW as slowing RU gains.
• Novopavlivsk / South Donetsk Axis (Kurakhove):
  • Intensity: Significant (5 RU attacks repelled, 1 ongoing - UGS 13:00 UTC). Heavy fighting near Heorhiivka, Maksymilianivka, Hostre (DeepState).
  • RU Gains Claimed: Multiple small advances claimed near Preobrazhenka, Sribne, Nadezhdinka, Rozlyv, Konstantynopil, Burlatske. Advance towards Shevchenko from Burlatske. Claim capture of 2 UA strongpoints near Komar. RU MoD claims 1.5-2km daily advance rate.
  • UA Actions: Multiple successful drone strikes reported destroying RU assault groups/equipment ("Hostri Kartuzy," "Zliuky Bobry," 38th Marines, "Pryvyd Khortytsi").
• Kupyansk Axis:
  • Intensity: Moderate (1 RU assault repelled - UGS 13:00 UTC).
  • RU Gains Claimed: Advance E of Petropavlivka. Heavy fighting near Pervomaiske (towards Shiikivka), Kondrashivka, Mala Shapkivka.
  • UA Actions: Claimed repelling 2 RU breach attempts, destroying tanks/BMPs (92nd Bde/Bureviy Bde). RU claims repelling UA counterattacks (incl. GUR units) for 3 days.
• Kharkiv Axis: No RU offensive actions reported by UGS. UA border guards active near Vovchansk, inflicting casualties. Russian "buffer zone" established near Hlyboke/Starytsia (RU claim).
• Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): 3 RU assaults stopped near Mali Shcherbaky (UGS 13:00 UTC). RU claims advance within Stepove (N of Kamyanske). RU claims potential major UA reinforcement buildup (~1500 GUR personnel) - requires verification.
• Prydniprovsky Axis (Kherson): 1 RU assault repelled (UGS 13:00 UTC). RU claims destroying UA deployment point via artillery.

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IV. Technology, Logistics & Manpower

• Drones:
  • Ukraine: Major strategic focus on increasing domestic production (all types, esp. fiber-optic guided). 77,000+ RU targets hit in March. Persistent need for recon drones/support equipment highlighted by unit appeals.
  • Russia: Heavy FPV/kamikaze drone use. Analysis shows shift to Chinese/Indian components in Shaheds, potentially due to sanctions. Continued reliance on volunteer-provided drones/equipment. Use of light buggies for mobility. Use of armed UGVs reported.
• Russian Manpower: Prisoner recruitment via contracts confirmed as primary path. Reports of coercion against conscripts to sign contracts persist. Expert assessment suggests reliance on unit relocation over large-scale reinforcement.
• Logistics: Reports of RU logistical strain (Pokrovsk south flank) due to UA drone interdiction. Continued RU reliance on non-standard supply channels (crowdfunding, occupied territory donations).

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V. Information Environment

• Key Russian Narratives: Justification for Kryvyi Rih strike (false military target claims). Promotion of claimed battlefield successes (Katerynivka, Lysivka, Abrams destruction). Allegations of UA atrocities/sabotage/mining cemeteries. Warnings about potential UA offensives (Zaporizhzhia). Highlighting alleged UA economic collapse and mobilization failures (POW videos). Promoting domestic stability/patriotism.
• Key Ukrainian Narratives: Highlighting Russian civilian targeting/war crimes (Kryvyi Rih evidence, UN/OSCE action). Emphasizing defensive successes (repelled assaults, high RU losses). Showcasing drone effectiveness (deep strikes, tactical successes). Promoting domestic drone production efforts. Countering specific RU claims (Basivka control). Exposing RU recruitment practices/morale issues. Publicizing international support.

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VI. Political & Diplomatic Context

• International Action: Ukraine requests urgent UN/OSCE meetings on Kryvyi Rih strike.
• Aid: Norway confirms significant funding for Czech ammo initiative and EPF.
• European Defense: Discussions ongoing regarding potential joint EU Defence Mechanism (EDM). EU Commissioner warns of potential conflict by 2030, urging readiness.
• US Politics: Russian sources amplify claims of potential Trump ultimatum to Ukraine regarding peace terms.
• Refugee Status: Potential changes to temporary protection status for Ukrainian refugees in Europe post-ceasefire reported.

(End Summary)