(CONFIDENTIAL // UKRAINE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE)

Daily Intelligence Summary: Ukraine

Date: April 12, 2025 Reporting Period: April 11, 15:00 UTC – April 12, 23:59 UTC (Derived from reports up to Apr 13, 05:53 UTC) Prepared By: Military Intelligence AI Assistant

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I. Executive Summary

• Overall Intensity: Combat intensity remained High across the front on April 12, with 120 combat clashes reported (UGS). Russian forces maintained offensive pressure, particularly on the Pokrovsk axis (highest intensity), alongside significant activity on the Lyman, Toretsk, Kursk Border, and Kramatorsk axes.
• Major Events & Trends:
  • Confirmed Ukrainian F-16 Loss: Ukraine acknowledged the loss of an F-16 aircraft and its pilot, Major Pavlo Ivanov (26), during a combat mission on April 12. Posthumously awarded "Hero of Ukraine". Loss attributed to Russian missiles (S-400/R-37); friendly fire denied. This confirms operational F-16 use and attrition.
  • Heavy Russian Air/Drone Barrages: Russia continued extensive strikes, launching 249 KABs and over 2,700 kamikaze drones on April 12 (UGS). Overnight (Apr 12-13), a mass Shahed attack occurred (55 launched, 43 downed), causing civilian casualties (3 KIA, 10+ WIA) in Kherson/Odesa.
  • Russian Ground Advances: Russian forces achieved confirmed advances in Kursk Oblast, near Yampolivka (Lyman axis), and near Valentynivka (Pokrovsk axis) (DeepState). Russia claimed the capture of Yelyzavetivka (Pokrovsk), impacting control near the H-20 highway. Significant (unverified) Russian claims persist regarding Kalynove (Toretsk) and other tactical gains.
  • Significant Equipment Claims: Russia claims destruction of a US-made AN/TPQ-48/50 counter-battery radar (Novopavlivsk) and a Ukrainian F-16. Ukraine claims high daily Russian equipment losses (+12 tanks, +33 APVs, +71 Arty Systems).
  • Civilian Casualties: Russian strikes continue to inflict civilian casualties. MLRS strike killed 2 women in Kupyansk (Apr 13). Drone attack killed a volunteer in Kherson (Apr 12). Overnight drone attacks caused 3 KIA, 10+ WIA in Kherson/Odesa (Apr 12-13). (Note: The catastrophic Sumy strike occurred early Apr 13, technically outside this reporting period but immediately following it).
• Key Concerns: The confirmed F-16 loss highlights the risks of operating advanced aircraft against sophisticated Russian defenses. The claimed destruction of a key counter-battery radar, if confirmed, impacts Ukrainian capabilities. Persistent KAB/drone strikes necessitate urgent Air Defence reinforcement. Russia continues pressure despite high reported losses, leveraging mass and firepower.

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II. Overall Situation Assessment

• Russian Strategy: Russia maintains its strategic objectives: capture of Donbas (Pokrovsk/Toretsk focus) and expansion of the border buffer zone (Kursk/Sumy). Pressure is applied across multiple axes to stretch Ukrainian defenses and identify weaknesses. Offensive tempo noted as slightly reduced compared to early 2025 by some analysts, potentially due to losses or preparation for larger operations, though intensity remains high on key fronts.
• Ukrainian Strategy: Ukrainian forces maintain active defense, inflicting attrition and conducting localized counter-attacks (e.g., near Kotlyne previously, Klishchiivka reportedly repelled large assault). Leveraging drone technology for both tactical strikes (recon, FPV, heavy bombers) and cross-border operations remains central. Securing advanced Western Air Defence systems is the top priority.
• Technological Factors: Both sides heavily rely on UAVs. Russian sources acknowledge the impact of Ukrainian drones in slowing advances (Pokrovsk) and necessitating adaptations (EW, counter-drone measures). Russia employs a wide array of drones, including claimed drone-vs-drone engagements and ground robots. Ukraine demonstrates counter-drone capabilities (63rd Bde claims) and potential use of novel systems ("drone mother ship" reported by RU).
• Personnel & Morale: Significant Russian losses claimed by Ukraine (~1220 daily). Persistent RU claims of large UA surrenders (>500 in Kursk) require verification. Concerns regarding UA MIA handling and volunteer recruitment uptake persist. Russian personnel quality issues (use of disabled, older equipment) and morale concerns (POW testimonies, family appeals) are noted alongside continued offensive capacity.

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III. Key Frontline Developments (Apr 12)

(Based on UGS 08:00 Apr 13 update & other sources covering Apr 12)

• Kursk Operational Zone (Border): (High Intensity)
  • 23 combat clashes reported. Significant RU air/arty fire (133 KABs, 542 arty attacks).
  • RU forces achieved confirmed advances in Kursk Oblast (DeepState).
  • Contested areas near Oleshnia/Hornal persist; RU attempting pushback. Fighting near Loknya (Sumy). RU claim on Zhuravka (Sumy) capture persists.
  • UA cross-border drone ops ongoing ("Baba Yaga" heavy hexacopters confirmed active in Belgorod).
• Kharkiv Axis: (Moderate)
  • Primarily RU DRG attempts; 2 groups stopped near Ridne/Tykhe.
  • Heavy RU strikes Apr 12 (KABs/drones/shelling) caused civilian injuries/damage in Kupyansk, Slatyne.
• Kupyansk Axis: (Moderate)
  • 2 RU attacks repelled near Zahryzove/Nova Kruhlyakivka.
  • RU gradually expanding control N of Kupyansk. RU recon of Oskil River crossing points noted; UA countermeasures active.
  • DeepState previously confirmed RU advance near Kotliarivka (Apr 11).
• Lyman Axis: (High Intensity)
  • 18 RU attacks repelled near multiple settlements.
  • DeepState confirmed RU advance near Yampolivka (Apr 12). Situation previously assessed as critical.
• Siversk Axis: (Low-Moderate)
  • 3 RU attacks repelled towards Hryhorivka/Bilohorivka.
• Kramatorsk Axis (incl. Chasiv Yar): (Moderate)
  • 11 combat engagements recorded near Chasiv Yar, Predtechyne, W of Andriivka. Heavy fighting on Chasiv Yar outskirts.
  • UA 5th Assault Brigade utilizing drone interceptors reported.
• Bakhmut Axis (Klishchiivka): (Moderate)
  • UA forces claim repelling large-scale RU mechanized assault near Klishchiivka, destroying armor/personnel (Apr 12-13).
• Toretsk Axis: (High Intensity)
  • 16 RU attacks near Dachne, Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka, Toretsk.
  • UA 12th Azov Brigade reported repelling RU assault using unarmored civilian vehicles, highlighting potential RU armor shortages.
  • Significant RU claims persist regarding advances near Kalynove, towards H-20 highway.
• Pokrovsk Axis: (Highest Intensity)
  • 31 RU assaults stopped across multiple settlements.
  • DeepState confirmed RU advance near Valentynivka (Apr 12). RU MoD claimed capture of Yelyzavetivka (Apr 13, likely reflecting Apr 12 gains).
  • Heavy fighting continues. UA reported successful counter-attack near Kotlyne previously. High RU losses claimed by UA.
• Novopavlivsk Axis: (Moderate)
  • 5 RU attacks repelled near Kostiantynopil/Shevchenko.
  • RU sources claim pressure/advances towards Bohatyr. Persistent RU claim of radar destruction near Bohatyr (Apr 13).
• Huliaipole Axis: (Low-Moderate)
  • UGS reported no RU offensive actions on Apr 12. (Note: UA SDF reported 1 attack towards Shevchenko Apr 13 morning, possibly related to Apr 12).
• Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia): (Moderate)
  • UGS reported repelling 1 RU attack near Mali Shcherbaky. Intense RU shelling/drone activity reported.
• Prydniprovsky Axis (Left Bank Kherson): (Low)
  • 4 unsuccessful RU attempts to advance. Krynky bridgehead maintained.

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IV. Air, Missile & Drone Activity Synopsis (Apr 12)

• Ukrainian F-16 Loss: Second confirmed loss. Major Pavlo Ivanov (26) KIA. Hit by Russian missile(s).
• Russian Air Power: Heavy KAB use (249 dropped). Tactical aviation active across front.
• Russian Drone Operations: Extremely high tempo (2,709 kamikaze drones used). Included overnight mass Shahed attack (55 launched, 43 downed by UA), causing civilian casualties/damage (Kherson/Odesa). Active use of FPVs, Lancets, Recon drones. Claims against high-value UA assets (Radar - Novopavlivsk). Use of ground robots confirmed.
• Ukrainian Drone Operations: Effective tactical strikes confirmed (65th Mech destroying RU equipment). Claimed destruction of 147 RU UAVs. Active use of "Baba Yaga" heavy hexacopters (Belgorod). Development of counter-drone drone systems (5th Assault Bde). RU confirms significant UA drone activity (Pokrovsk).
• Air Defence: Ukraine claimed 43/55 Shahed intercepts overnight. Claimed hitting 3 RU AD systems. Russia claimed intercepting 13 UA UAVs overnight (Rostov/Belgorod) and previous high numbers. Russia claims downing F-16.

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V. Naval Situation

• Black Sea / Azov Sea: No Russian missile carriers deployed (Apr 13 morning). RU Recon UAVs active over Black Sea Apr 13.
• Mediterranean Sea: 3 Russian warships remain, including 3 Kalibr carriers (26 missile potential).
• Black Sea Shipping Talks: Planned for Apr 15-16 in Ankara (RU/UA participation unconfirmed).

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VI. Capabilities, Logistics & Support

• Ukraine:
  • Capabilities: F-16 operational, facing attrition. Urgent AD needs. Effective drone usage (strike, counter-FPV, logistics - "Vampire"). Developing new systems ("Trident" laser). Domestic production increasing.
  • Losses/Needs: Confirmed F-16 loss. Potential counter-battery radar loss (RU claim). Ongoing need for drones (Mavic 3T), EW, vehicles highlighted by crowdfunding.
  • International Support: Ramstein outcomes (>€21B pledged, focus on AD/drones/EW). Netherlands €3.5B package announced.
• Russia:
  • Capabilities: Leveraging air superiority (KABs), extensive drone use. Ballistic missile capability demonstrated (Sumy strike Apr 13). Claimed F-16 kill. Developing heavy drones, counter-drone systems.
  • Logistics/Issues: Reported use of unarmored/modified vehicles suggests potential armor shortages. Crowdfunding indicates persistent needs for basic gear (drones, comms, armor, meds). Systemic tactical critiques ("thousand cuts") point to potential inefficiencies/high attrition.

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VII. Civilian Impact & Humanitarian Situation

• Significant Casualties: Russian strikes (Shaheds, shelling, KABs) continue to cause civilian deaths and injuries across multiple regions (Kherson, Odesa, Kupyansk, Slatyne reported Apr 12-13). (Note: Catastrophic Sumy strike occurred just after this reporting period but dominates recent news).
• Infrastructure Damage: Residential buildings, enterprises, warehouses, vehicles damaged by RU strikes (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Nikopol, Kherson, Odesa). RU claims UA strikes damaged energy infrastructure (Belgorod) and buildings (Donetsk city - HIMARS alleged). UA claimed drone strike hit power substation (Bryansk).
• Ethical Concerns: Persist regarding potential targeting of MEDEVAC (RU claims), alleged atrocities (RU claims vs UA), and use of cluster munitions (Sumy strike allegation).

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VIII. Information Operations & Political Context

• Key Narratives: Russia promotes narratives of success (Kursk "completion", Yelyzavetivka capture), high UA losses (Kursk surrenders, F-16 downing), alleged UA atrocities, and internal UA friction/OPSEC failures (Sumy strike). Ukraine highlights Russian terror tactics (Sumy), drone successes, RU losses, and international support.
• Diplomacy: Putin-Witcoff meeting held. Ongoing speculation about US peace proposals/pressure. Black Sea shipping talks scheduled. International condemnation growing following Sumy strike.

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IX. Outlook

• Expect continued Russian pressure, especially on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, aiming to exploit gains near the H-20 highway. The situation on the Lyman axis warrants close monitoring.
• Russian air and drone strikes will remain a significant threat, necessitating enhanced air defense capabilities for Ukraine.
• The F-16 loss confirms the challenges of integrating and operating these platforms effectively against a capable adversary. Further attrition is likely.
• The Sumy strike and subsequent internal Ukrainian debate may have operational security and morale implications.
• Diplomatic maneuvering will continue alongside military operations, particularly concerning potential US initiatives and Black Sea grain corridor issues.

(End Summary)