Okay, analyzing the provided intelligence reports from a professional Ukrainian military perspective.

(CONFIDENTIAL // UKRAINE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE)

Daily Intelligence Summary

Date: 2025-04-22 Reporting Period: 2025-04-21 15:00 UTC – 2025-04-22 06:10 UTC (Incorporating UA GSh 08:00 Report) Prepared For: High Command Prepared By: Military Intelligence AI Assistant

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I. Executive Summary

• Ceasefire Failure & Resumption of High-Intensity Operations: Russia's unilateral Easter ceasefire (Apr 19-21) was demonstrably violated by Russian forces (confirmed pre-start UAV activity, ongoing strikes) and exploited for tactical preparations. Upon expiry, Russia formally resumed offensive operations, marked by a large-scale drone and missile attack (Night Apr 20-21) and continued high-intensity ground combat.
• Major Russian Air Attack & Civilian Impact: The overnight strike (Apr 20-21) involved 1 Onyx, 2 Kh-31P missiles, and 96 UAVs (Shahed/Imitator). UA Air Defence intercepted 42 Shaheds; 47 imitators failed. Significant damage occurred in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Cherkasy Oblasts. Civilian casualties resulted from these and subsequent strikes (Section VII).
• Frontline Situation: Intense fighting persists across the front. The Pokrovsk axis remains the epicenter of Russian offensive efforts (61 assaults repelled Apr 21). Significant Russian pressure continues on the Lyman, Toretsk, Novopavlivsk, and Kursk/Sumy Border axes. Russian forces claim tactical gains (e.g., Hornal Monastery - Kursk; Sukha Balka - Toretsk), while Ukrainian forces report repelling numerous attacks and conducting localized counter-actions.
• Key Ukrainian Successes:
  • Deep Strike: Confirmed Air Force strike on RU UAV facility near Tetkino (Kursk) on Apr 19, eliminating up to 20 operators.
  • Air Defence: Interception of 42 Shahed UAVs (Night Apr 20-21). Subsequent successful engagements overnight Apr 21-22 confirmed (3 by Navy, 2 by PvK East).
  • Counter-EW: Previously confirmed destruction of multiple RU Borisoglebsk-2 systems.
  • Ground Combat: Repulsion of numerous assaults (e.g., 61 on Pokrovsk axis). Capture of 9 RU soldiers in Kursk Oblast (Apr 20). Effective ongoing drone operations targeting RU assets.
• Cross-Border Intensity: High tempo of combat operations continues within the Kursk/Sumy border zone, with Ukrainian forces maintaining presence and RU forces claiming advances/settlement capture (Hornal Monastery). Heavy Russian shelling and KAB use reported.
• Humanitarian & LOAC Concerns: Russian strikes continue to cause civilian casualties and damage infrastructure. A Russian ambush during the declared ceasefire killed Ukrainian personnel (Toretsk axis). Attacks on marked humanitarian vehicles also occurred. Russia continues to promote narratives alleging Ukrainian LOAC violations.
• Capabilities & Logistics: Ukraine leverages drones effectively and benefits from Allied ISR (potential Swedish AEW&C). Russia demonstrates high-volume strike capability (KABs, drones) but faces potential logistics strain (Kursk corruption probe, fundraising appeals). Reports of RU personnel issues persist (POW testimony).
• Strategic Context: Russia formally ratified its Strategic Partnership Treaty with Iran. Reports continue surrounding potential US peace frameworks, met with skepticism and counter-narratives from various sides.

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II. Strategic & Air Warfare

• Post-Ceasefire Operations: Russia officially resumed offensive operations post-ceasefire, framing Ukraine as the violator (alleging 4,900 UA attacks during the pause). Evidence confirms RU preparations (Zherebets River crossings) and aerial activity during the ceasefire.
• Russian Strike Justifications (Putin): Reiterated policy of striking civilian objects only if allegedly used by the military (citing Sumy, Odesa). Expressed need to "discuss" proposals regarding civilian infrastructure protection.
• Major Russian Air Attack (Night Apr 20-21):
  • Composition: 1x Onyx, 2x Kh-31P missiles, 96 UAVs (Shahed & Imitator types).
  • UA Air Defence: Intercepted 42 Shahed UAVs. 47 imitator drones failed/lost locally. Missiles were not intercepted.
  • Impacts: Confirmed damage in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy Oblasts. RU sources claim hits on high-value targets (CP near Chornobaivka, training grounds, dual-use facilities).
• Ongoing Air Threats (Apr 21 - Apr 22 morning):
  • Persistent threat from Russian tactical aviation employing Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) against frontline Oblasts (Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk). 253 KABs used in the past 24h (UA GSh).
  • Continued deployment of kamikaze drones (2,651 reported used past 24h - GSh), including daytime attacks (Kharkiv, Apr 22).
  • Active reconnaissance UAV operations observed.
• Ukrainian Strikes (Confirmed & Claimed):
  • Confirmed (Apr 19): Successful Air Force strike on RU UAV launch/preparation facility near Tetkino (Kursk Oblast). Claimed elimination of up to 20 RU UAV operators.
  • Confirmed (Drone Ops): "Fenix" border unit destroyed 1x RU Tank and 2x Msta-S SPGs (Kharkiv front). 40th & 34th Coastal Defence Bdes conducted successful drone strikes on RU positions/vehicles near Kherson.
  • Confirmed (Air Defence Asset): Destruction of a Russian Buk-M2 SAM system by UA forces (Scouts "Chornyi Lis" & adjacent units - video evidence).
• Allied ISR: Potential Swedish Saab 340 AEW&C (AWACS) activity reported over Lviv region, enhancing situational awareness.

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III. Frontline Operations (Past 24h Cycle - UA GSh 08:00 Report & other sources)

• Overall: 165 combat clashes recorded. Russian forces maintain offensive pressure across multiple axes.
• Pokrovsk Axis (Intensity: Highest):
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 61 Russian assaults near numerous settlements (Sukha Balka, Myrolyubivka, Novooleksandrivka, Udachne, Preobrazhenka, etc.).
  • High RU losses claimed by UA GSh for this axis Apr 21 (289 personnel, 7 BBM, etc.).
  • Continued RU use of motorcycle assaults reported.
• Lyman Axis (Intensity: High):
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 25 Russian attacks near Nove, Nadiia, Torske, etc.
  • RU claims advances near Yampolivka and ongoing battles for Nove/Novomykhailivka. Confirmed RU engineering work on Zherebets River crossings during ceasefire.
• Toretsk Axis (Intensity: High):
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 23 Russian attacks near Toretsk, Dyliivka, Shcherbynivka.
  • RU claims advances near Dachne and SW outskirts of Toretsk. Use of captured Chinese Type 56-1 rifles reported.
• Novopavlivsk Axis (South Donetsk) (Intensity: Moderate-High):
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 19 Russian attacks near Kostyantynopil, Vilne Pole, Novosilka, etc. SDF South repelled 14 attacks.
  • RU claims repelling UA counter-attack near Bohatyr. Video confirms RU artillery strike on UA PVD in Bohatyr.
• Orikhiv Axis (Zaporizhzhia) (Intensity: Moderate):
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 3 Russian assaults near Stepove, Novodanylivka. SDF South repelled 1 attack near Stepove.
  • RU reports acknowledge intense UA drone activity impacting their logistics.
  • Major RU mechanized assault (>40 vehicles, ~300 pers) confirmed repelled by UA 128th Bde pre-Easter.
• Kupyansk Axis (Intensity: Moderate):
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 2 Russian attacks near Petropavlivka, Zahryzove.
  • UA NGU unit captured RU infantry group (Apr 21).
• Kherson Axis (Prydniprovskyi) (Intensity: Low Ground / High Drone):
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 2 Russian assaults.
  • UA drone strikes continue targeting Left Bank positions. RU claims Onyx strike hit UA CP near Chornobaivka (Apr 21).

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IV. Border Engagements (Kursk/Sumy)

• Kursk Direction (Intensity: High):
  • 21 combat clashes recorded (Apr 21). Heavy RU air/artillery strikes reported by UA GSh.
  • Ukrainian Actions: UA forces maintain presence. Successful strike on Tetkino UAV facility (Apr 19). Capture of 9 RU POWs (Apr 20).
  • Russian Claims: Claim liberation of Hornal Monastery area after heavy fighting. Claim significant UA losses and capture of 4 POWs near Hornal. Claim advances near Nikolsky Monastery/Hornal. Use of fiber-optic guided drones claimed.
• Sumy Direction: RU air strikes targeted multiple border settlements. RU claims strikes on UA forces/depots and repelled infiltration attempts near Belgorod border.

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V. Naval Activity

• Black Sea: 1 Russian Kalibr missile carrier remains active (up to 6 missiles).
• Mediterranean Sea: 2 Russian Kalibr carriers active (up to 12 missiles).
• Azov Sea: No hostile naval presence reported.
• (Note: Potential deployment of additional Kalibr carriers reported late Apr 21 requires confirmation).

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VI. Capabilities, Logistics & Losses

A. Ukraine

• Capabilities: Effective drone operations (strike, recon, counter-EW targeting). Successful deep strike capability demonstrated (Tetkino). Enhanced ISR potentially via Allied AEW&C. Air Defence successfully intercepted significant portion of Shahed attack. Ongoing force restructuring and training initiatives.
• Losses/Challenges: Confirmed KIA in RU ambush during ceasefire (Toretsk). Civilian casualties from RU strikes. Confirmed loss of Marder IFV, Pbv 302 APC (Pokrovsk). Continued need for ammunition and equipment highlighted by fundraising appeals. RU claims destruction of HIMARS (unverified).

B. Russia

• Losses (Confirmed/Claimed by UA): Up to 20 UAV operators KIA (Tetkino). 9 POWs captured (Kursk). Buk-M2 SAM destroyed. Tank, 2x Msta-S SPGs destroyed (Kharkiv). High personnel/equipment losses claimed by UA GSh daily (1130 personnel past 24h). Major losses (29 vehicles, ~140 KIA/WIA) claimed in failed Zaporizhzhia assault.
• Capabilities: Large-scale coordinated air/drone strikes. Heavy use of KABs (253 past 24h). Demonstrated river crossing engineering capability. Use of advanced munitions (Onyx, Kh-31P, Iskander-K cluster). Adaptation reported (captured rifles, motorcycle/scooter assaults - though vulnerable).
• Logistics/Challenges: Persistent need for basic equipment (drones, EW, comms) indicated by fundraising appeals. Reports of high UA FPV drone threat impacting RU drone ops/logistics (Zaporizhzhia). Internal issues (Kursk corruption probe, Altai base conditions, personnel/morale issues suggested by POW testimony). Potential supply chain issues indicated by MoD lawsuit against electronics supplier.

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VII. Humanitarian & LOAC Concerns

• Civilian Impact: Significant civilian casualties confirmed from RU strikes (Kharkiv - 1 KIA/102+ WIA; Sumy - 1 KIA/1 WIA; Nikopol - 2 WIA/1 mine injury). Continued heavy RU shelling/airstrikes on border communities (Chernihiv, Sumy) and frontline settlements.
• LOAC Violations:
  • Confirmed: Russian use of cluster munitions in dense residential area (Kharkiv). Russian attack resulting in Ukrainian KIA during declared ceasefire (Toretsk). Attack on marked humanitarian vehicle during ceasefire.
  • Concerns: Putin's justification for striking civilian infrastructure alleged to have military use raises concerns regarding distinction and proportionality. Reports of RU forces using captured Chinese rifles. Potential indiscriminate mining (Nikopol incident).
• Prisoners of War: Successful 246-for-246 (+ 31/15 wounded) exchange conducted Apr 19. Capture of 9 RU POWs by Ukraine (Apr 20). RU sentencing of captured UA soldier raises concerns about due process.

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VIII. Political & Diplomatic Context

• Ceasefire Dynamics: Russia's unilateral ceasefire failed operationally and was used for narrative purposes. Ukraine rejected it citing RU violations. Zelenskyy highlighted RU capability to halt attacks if ordered. Peskov reiterated RU openness to talks but maintained preconditions.
• Negotiation Landscape: Reports continue regarding potential US peace proposals (Crimea/NATO concessions). Upcoming London talks (Apr 23) confirmed involving UA, UK, FR, US.
• Russia-Iran Relations: Formal ratification of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty deepens military-technical ties.
• Internal Russian Politics: Putin signed laws tightening domestic controls (foreign agents, discreditation, etc.) and providing benefits for specific military personnel. Emphasis on veteran integration continues.
• International: Death of Pope Francis noted globally. UK boosting domestic munitions production. Japan agrees to provide SAR intelligence to Ukraine.

(End Summary)