(CONFIDENTIAL // UKRAINE MILITARY INTELLIGENCE // AI ANALYSIS)

Daily Intelligence Summary: Ukraine

Date: April 26, 2025 Reporting Period: April 25, 15:00 UTC – April 26, 10:00 UTC Prepared For: High Command Prepared By: Military Intelligence AI Assistant (UKR/MI-AIA)

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I. Executive Summary

• Strategic Situation (Kursk Oblast): A primary strategic development is the conflicting claims regarding control of Kursk Oblast. Russia (via Chief of General Staff Gerasimov) claims the completion of the operation to liberate the region, asserting Gornal as the final liberated settlement and reporting immense Ukrainian losses (>76,500). This is strongly refuted by the Ukrainian General Staff, which states defensive operations are ongoing, positions are held, and assaults are being repelled. Russian sources present video of flag-raising in Gornal. The confirmed participation of North Korean military personnel alongside Russian forces in this operation is a significant geopolitical development officially acknowledged by Russia.
• Aerial Warfare: Russia continued widespread Shahed drone attacks overnight (Apr 25-26) across multiple oblasts, resulting in confirmed civilian casualties (1 KIA, 4 WIA in Kamianske) and infrastructure damage (residential building in Kamianske, houses in Bila Tserkva, enterprises in Dnipro/Kropyvnytskyi/Pavlohrad claimed by RU). Ukrainian Air Defence intercepted 66 Shahed UAVs and 31 drone-imitators. Russia also employed tactical aviation with KABs against border regions and claimed missile strikes (Kh-31P/Kh-59) on Apr 25. Ukraine demonstrated continued deep strike capability with a drone attack reported in Shuya (Ivanovo Oblast, RU).
• Frontline Intensity: Ground combat remains intense. The Pokrovsk axis sees the highest number of Russian assaults (44 repelled yesterday). Significant fighting continues on the Toretsk axis (Russian claims of advances threatening supply lines), Southern Donetsk (Russian claims of repelling counterattacks and advancing), and the Kursk/Sumy border zone. Ukrainian forces report inflicting heavy losses on Russian personnel and equipment.
• Internal Russian Events: Reports continue regarding alleged targeted killings of key Russian personnel (EW developer Rytikov, General Moskalik, cartographer), suggesting potential internal security vulnerabilities or successful external operations. A tragic civilian death occurred at a military exhibition in Komsomolsk-on-Amur.
• Diplomatic Activity: A brief meeting occurred between President Zelenskyy and Donald Trump in Rome, with agreements for further talks reported. Russia (via Peskov) claims Putin expressed readiness for unconditional negotiations with Kyiv during a meeting with US Envoy Witkoff. The US reportedly rejects Russian demands for troop withdrawal from occupied territories. A large-scale prisoner exchange (500 for 500) is reportedly being prepared for May 3.
• Infrastructure & Logistics: A widespread technical failure impacting Ukrainian digital/payment systems occurred but was attributed to a data center issue and is reportedly being resolved. Both sides demonstrate reliance on volunteer support for equipment (drones, optics), indicating potential logistical gaps. Russia is highlighting increased recruitment incentives.

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II. Strategic, Air, and Naval Warfare

A. Aerial Activity & Impacts

• Russian Strikes (Overnight Apr 25-26 & Ongoing):
  • UAV Campaign: Extensive use of Shahed-type UAVs and drone-imitators. UA Air Force downed 66 Shaheds and 31 imitators. Attacks targeted Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Sumy Oblasts.
  • Confirmed Impacts:
    • Kamianske (Dnipropetrovsk): 1 civilian KIA, 6 WIA (incl. 11yo girl, 88yo woman seriously injured) from strike on 9-story residential building.
    • Bila Tserkva (Kyiv Oblast): Strike on private houses, no initial casualties reported.
    • Kharkiv: Damage to balconies/windows near multi-story building (1 child injured - acubarotrauma; 1 boy - acute stress reaction). RU sources claim strike on drone warehouse.
    • Kropyvnytskyi (Kirovohrad): Damage to warehouse/office premises. RU sources claim strike on enterprises.
    • Dnipro / Pavlohrad (Dnipropetrovsk): RU sources claim strikes on enterprises.
    • Myrhorod District (Poltava): 3 civilians with acute stress reactions from falling UAV debris.
  • Tactical Aviation: Ongoing threat reported on NE/E directions. KAB launches confirmed towards Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russia claims massive bomb strike on Borova (Kharkiv).
  • Missile Activity: Previous reports (Apr 25) included Kh-31P/Kh-59 and potential ballistic missile use against southern regions. No new major missile barrages reported in this cycle.
• Ukrainian Air Defence Performance: High interception rate reported against Shaheds (66 downed). Neutralized a Russian Lancet drone. However, impacts confirm some penetration.
• Ukrainian Deep Strikes: Confirmed drone attack in Shuya, Ivanovo Oblast (RU). Previous successful strikes on Yelabuga UAV plant and Kirzhach arsenal noted.
• Russian Air Defence Claims: MoD claims intercepting 45 Ukrainian drones overnight (Kursk, Belgorod, Rostov, Lipetsk) and 4 over Crimea.

B. Naval Situation

• Black Sea: One Russian Kalibr carrier active (up to 6 missiles). Missile threat remains.
• Mediterranean Sea: Four Russian warships active (two Kalibr carriers, up to 12 missiles).
• Sea of Azov: No hostile naval presence reported.

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III. Frontline Operations

• Overall Intensity: High, with 90 combat engagements reported by UA GSh since the start of Apr 26.
• Kursk/Sumy Border Zone:
  • Conflicting Claims: Russia claims complete liberation of Kursk Oblast, expulsion of UA forces beyond the border, and liberation of Gornal. Ukraine strongly refutes this, reporting ongoing defensive operations, repelled assaults (6 engagements, 1 ongoing), and continued presence.
  • North Korean Involvement: Officially acknowledged by Russia, with praise for their performance as "assault troops."
  • Belgorod Oblast: Russia claims clearing Popovka. Ukraine reports active operations in designated areas.
  • Sumy Oblast: Russia claims ongoing creation of a security zone (4 settlements liberated, >90 sq km). RU MoD reports defeating UA units near Miropolskoye, Mikhailovskoye, Turya.
• Pokrovsk Axis (Highest Intensity): 31 Russian assault attempts reported by UA GSh (3 ongoing). Intense fighting near numerous settlements. Russian claims of tactical advances near Nadezhdinka and destruction of US-supplied equipment. UA 59th Brigade reports destroying RU vehicle. Captured UA soldier testimony (via RU sources) describes high RU losses.
• Southern Donetsk Axis: Intense fighting. RU source (Voin DV) claims repelling 5 Ukrainian counterattacks near Bohatyr/Otradne with heavy UA losses. Claims tactical advances in Vilne Pole and south of Malynivka. Claims destruction of German radar, ammo depot, and disrupting UA rotations/reinforcements. TASS reports UA retreat near Bohaytyr.
• Lyman Axis: 12 Russian attacks reported by UA GSh (3 ongoing). Ukrainian SIGNUM battalion destroyed 3 RU BTRs. WarGonzo claims RU mined road, destroyed UA transport.
• Toretsk Axis: 9 Russian attacks reported by UA GSh (3 ongoing). RU sources claim significant advances north of Dzerzhinsk, entering "Berezka" camp area, threatening UA supply lines.
• Kramatorsk Axis (Chasiv Yar): 7 Russian attempts repelled, 3 ongoing.
• Novopavlivsk Axis: 4 Russian attacks repelled, 2 ongoing. Russian claims Su-34 strikes on UA positions.
• Orikhiv Axis: 1 Russian attack stopped, 2 ongoing. ISW previously noted confirmed UA advance SE of Mala Tokmachka. UA 65th Bde claims destroying 8 RU artillery pieces.
• Kharkiv Axis: RU claims destroying UA equipment and disrupting reconnaissance/assault groups on Lypetsk/Vovchansk sectors.
• Kherson Axis: Ukrainian SDF inflicting losses on RU concentrations. UA GSh reports 1 RU assault repelled yesterday.
• Other Axes: Limited activity reported on Siversk, Kupyansk, Huliaipole axes compared to others.

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IV. Capabilities, Logistics, and Personnel

• Ukraine:
  • Capabilities: Effective AD vs drones. Strong tactical drone usage (FPV strikes, counter-UAV). Demonstrating long-range strike capability. Increasing domestic artillery production (Bohdana SPGs). Force restructuring (8th DShV Corps formed, 148th Arty Bde added). Active recruitment for specialized roles (UAV operators).
  • Logistics: Infrastructure resilience tested by data center failure (services restored). Continued reliance on fundraising for drones/equipment.
  • Personnel: Highlighting soldier training (28th Mech Bde, psych resilience). Commemorating fallen soldiers. Addressing POW issues. Reports of alleged mistreatment during mobilization require attention.
• Russia:
  • Capabilities: Sustains large-scale air/drone/missile strikes. Heavy use of KABs, artillery. Employs diverse drone types (Shahed, Lancet, FPV, recon, alleged "Banderol"). Tactical adaptation (motorcycle assaults, improvised armor - "shushpanzers", sniper counter-drone). Officially acknowledged North Korean troop integration. Highlighting tactical medicine protocols.
  • Logistics: Potential strain indicated by fundraising appeals, use of improvised armor, captured soldier testimony on losses/conditions. Promoting decentralized "people's military-industrial complexes."
  • Personnel: Estimated high losses (UA claims 1110 past day). Reported high cumulative losses in Kursk (>76.5k claimed by RU MoD). Increased financial incentives for recruitment (Zabaykalsky Krai). Reports of personnel issues (wounded soldier returned to front, alleged killing of cartographer). Confirmed death of Michael Gloss (son of CIA Deputy Head) fighting for RU. Official confirmation of death of Major General Moskalik and alleged killing of EW developer Rytikov points to significant personnel losses/vulnerabilities.

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V. Political, Diplomatic, and Information Environment

• Negotiations: Brief Zelenskyy-Trump meeting occurred in Rome; agreement for further talks reported. White House calls it "very productive." Russia (Peskov) claims Putin confirmed readiness for unconditional negotiations to Witkoff. US reportedly rejects RU demands for troop withdrawal. Potential "Coalition of the Willing" for peace support discussed. Ukraine maintains firm stance against territorial concessions.
• Information Operations:
  • Russia: Heavily promoting claimed Kursk liberation, highlighting North Korean support, alleged high UA losses, and flag-raising video. Disseminating claims of UA war crimes (killing POW, attacking firefighters, killing civilian in Kursk 2024, burning Vovchansk). Promoting military successes (equipment destruction, captures, advances). Highlighting internal RU events (Popov conviction, migration issues, exhibition). Framing EU aid to Moldova as threat. Amplifying Trump's statements suggesting proximity to a deal. Using historical narratives (WWII, Victory Day) for mobilization. Reporting alleged targeted killings of key personnel. SVR warnings of UK chemical weapon provocation.
  • Ukraine: Directly refuting RU Kursk claims, highlighting ongoing defense and RU losses, showcasing own forces in Kursk Oblast. Reporting RU civilian impacts (Kamianske fatality/injuries, Kharkiv damage). Highlighting own successes (drone strikes, AD intercepts). Countering RU narratives. Promoting domestic production (Bohdana). Commemorating Chornobyl, linking to current nuclear safety risks. Highlighting Zelenskyy's diplomatic activity. Publicizing fundraising needs. Reporting alleged RU misconduct/internal issues.

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VI. Key Findings & Outlook

• Kursk Narrative Battle: The conflicting claims regarding control of Kursk Oblast represent a major information battleground. Independent verification is critical to assess the true operational situation and potential strategic implications. Russia's official acknowledgment of North Korean troops is a significant geopolitical admission.
• Persistent Russian Offensives: Russia maintains high-intensity offensive operations, particularly on the Pokrovsk and Toretsk axes, achieving localized tactical gains despite significant reported losses. Pressure is also sustained on the Southern Donetsk axis and border regions.
• Sustained Air Campaign: Russia continues widespread drone and aerial bombing campaigns, impacting civilian populations and infrastructure across Ukraine. Ukrainian AD remains effective against drones but faces challenges from combined attacks and specific threats like KABs and potentially ballistic missiles.
• Diplomatic Complexity: High-level diplomatic engagements continue, but fundamental disagreements on core issues (territory, security guarantees) persist between Ukraine and Russia, and potentially between Ukraine and some international partners regarding acceptable peace terms. Russia's "unconditional talks" offer requires scrutiny given their stated maximalist goals.
• Internal Factors: The widespread technical failure in Ukraine highlights infrastructure vulnerability. Reports of alleged targeted killings and personnel issues within Russia point to potential internal security challenges and morale concerns. Russia's focus on recruitment incentives suggests ongoing personnel needs.
• Humanitarian Cost: Civilian casualties continue to mount due to Russian attacks. Reconstruction efforts are underway but face significant challenges. Allegations of misconduct and violations of international law require investigation.

Outlook: Expect continued intense fighting, particularly in Donbas and border regions. Russian air attacks will likely persist. The situation in Kursk Oblast remains contested and unclear. Diplomatic maneuvering will continue, potentially influenced by battlefield dynamics and external political factors. Both sides will heavily utilize drones and adapt tactics. Internal challenges (infrastructure, personnel, security) will likely impact operational capabilities. The reported prisoner exchange could offer a significant humanitarian development.

(End Summary)