The "Energy Refrain" narrative is dead. With the Abu Dhabi talks kicked down the road, we’re back to negotiation by fire. Russia isn't waiting for diplomats; they are maximizing kinetic pressure right now. The loss of that CHP plant in Kyiv isn't a temporary outage—it's a structural deficit. The capital is bleeding heat, and it’s not coming back online anytime soon.

To make matters worse, the sun just threw an X-class flare at us. The timing is terrible. Over the next 12 hours, GPS and HF radio signals are going to degrade. If air defense relies on those signals for coordination, they're going to have a hard time tracking this new UAV wave vectoring in from Chernihiv.

On the Ground

The situation around Pokrovsk is getting ugly. The Russian 150th Motorized Rifle Division is trying to outflank the defense by pushing toward Dobropillya. But the infantry movements worry me less than the tech: "Rubicon" units are fielding fiber-optic guided FPV drones. Since they're hard-wired, they are completely immune to jamming. You can't suppress a copper wire with electronic warfare. That changes the calculus significantly.

Inside Kyiv, the front is domestic. Over a thousand buildings are freezing, people are gathering in the streets, and Russian propaganda is pouring gas on the fire.

Down south, it's a mix of tragedy and a small win. Another strike hit a maternity ward in Zaporizhzhia, but Ukrenergo somehow managed to patch the high-voltage line to Moldova. That pumps 500 MW back into the southern grid—a lifeline they desperately needed.

What the Satellites See

I’m looking at the SAR data from the Russian strategic rear, and it’s flashing red. The 29th Guards Missile Division is way too active. The activity scores for the 344th and 586th Regiments have spiked to 11.04 and 10.80 respectively.

When you combine that with the movement at Kursk Vostochny, it’s pretty clear the Strategic Missile Forces are stacking the deck. They are staging assets for a coordinated strike, likely timed to kick the grid while it's down.

Tech & Losses

• Starlink: Ukraine is finally purging unverified terminals to stop Russians from using captured or gray-market dishes. About time.
• Robotics: The VDV is rolling out "Kurier" ground robots with thermobaric launchers. They’re using bots to clear trenches so they don't have to risk infantry.
• The Butcher's Bill: UAF claims another 1,090 Russian personnel and 6 tanks neutralized in the last 24 hours, despite the mud.

My Take

We are in a massive danger window. You have solar flares messing with navigation, missile crews prepping for launch, and Kyiv freezing in the dark. The Kremlin smells blood. Expect them to try and force a total blackout before anyone sits down at a negotiating table.