The next 24 hours are going to be ugly. With the Russian delegation heading to Geneva tomorrow (Feb 17), Moscow is synchronizing a massive escalation to grab as much leverage as possible before anyone sits down at a table. They aren't just raiding anymore; taking places like Pokrovka and Minkivka is about establishing "facts on the ground."

To make matters worse, a deep freeze is hitting the front lines tonight. Kharkiv is already down to -2.8°C. As that mud hardens into concrete, the heavy armor sitting in reserve will finally be able to move.

In the Donbas, the situation is grim. Russians have reportedly taken Minkivka, north of Bakhmut, which puts the supply lines to Siversk in real danger. In Myrnohrad, a tactical breach has let Russian infantry into the urban outskirts. We're seeing a shift in the north, too—seizing Pokrovka in the Sumy sector doesn't look like a raid; it looks like an attempt to hold a permanent buffer zone on Ukrainian soil.

Down south in Zaporizhzhia, the 218th Guards Tank Regiment has consolidated control over Tsvetkovoye. With the ground freezing (forecast low of -2.0°C tonight), I'm worried about a mechanized breakout toward the H-08 highway. The only bright spot is Crimea, where GUR units took out a Pantsir-S1 and a Nebo-U radar, effectively blinding Russian air defense in that sector.

But here is what actually scares me: the satellite data.

Activity at the 260th GRAU Arsenal has flatlined completely—dropping to a score of 0.00. In military logistics, a "quiet depot" usually means the loading phase is over and the munitions have already been moved to launch platforms. Combined with similar silence at the 1st Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment, it feels like a massive missile strike is primed.

The human cost is already mounting. Strikes have left 1,500 buildings in Kyiv without heat just as temperatures drop to -6.4°C. We did get visual confirmation of a Ukrainian F-16 downing a Shahed drone, proving the jets work for rear-area defense, but that doesn't help the people freezing tonight.

Moscow is betting everything on entering those talks from a position of strength. Watch the Pokrovsk sector closely tonight—once the ground freezes, the "meat assaults" will likely switch to mechanized pushes. And that silence at the arsenals? It feels like the calm before a very loud storm.