Strategic Overview

We've officially hit the "Deep Freeze." With temperatures dropping to -27°C, the cold is doing as much damage as the artillery. Moscow is trying to freeze Kyiv by hammering the power grid, but Ukraine just fired back with a massive 69-drone swarm targeting the Russian rear—specifically Bryansk and Volgograd. They're trying to sever the logistical umbilical cord feeding the front lines.

The geopolitical pressure is ramping up, too. The US military seized the sanctioned oil tanker Aquila II in the Indian Ocean. That hits the "Shadow Fleet" right where it hurts: fuel logistics. We're watching this shift from a pure ground war to a battle for infrastructure survival. You can see it in Belgorod, where authorities are draining water systems to stop pipes from bursting. That's a sign of total municipal failure.

Operational Updates

North (Sumy/Bryansk) The "Deep Battle" is active. Ukraine sent at least 27 fixed-wing UAVs over Bryansk to starve out the Northern Grouping of Forces. In Belgorod, the infrastructure is cracking under the frost.

East (Pokrovsk/Donbas) Things are deteriorating near Pokrovsk. Russian forces are leaning heavily on high-volume artillery (152mm Giatsint-B) to support infantry assaults. I'm also seeing confirmed reports of "Gerbera" Carrier UAVs—motherships that deploy smaller FPV drones deep behind lines. That's a nasty evolution. Note that Russian claims of capturing Hlushkivka are false.

South (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa) A rare tactical win in the snow: UAF forces successfully retook Ternuvate, pushing back against the Russian creep. However, Russian aviation is still pounding the area with KAB glide bombs. The seizure of Aquila II should disrupt fuel flow to this southern theater soon.

SAR Intelligence (Satellite Data)

The data on the 260th GRAU Arsenal (Main Missile Directorate) is worrying. Activity dropped significantly (score down to 4.09 from a 7-day average of 12.63). Usually, a drop after a massive spike means the munitions have been loaded and moved out. I'd expect a missile wave in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Meanwhile, the 60th Radio-Technical Regiment is lighting up the sensors (10.17 score). Russian long-range radar is on high alert, likely hunting for that next wave of Ukrainian deep-strike drones.

Equipment & Losses

• New Threat: The "Gerbera" mothership UAVs are validated. This extends the FPV threat range significantly.
• Confirmed Kills: The 147th Artillery Brigade wiped out a Russian sabotage group north of Pokrovsk.
• Logistics Hits: The Falcon Battalion (FPV units) is having a field day hunting Russian "Bukhanka" vans and transports in the snow. The Russians are struggling to move supplies with light vehicles right now.

Confidence Check

I'm confident about the scale of the Ukrainian drone swarm and the Aquila II seizure. The status of GRU Lt. Gen. Alekseev is harder to pin down; the disruption to his command is real, but his long-term condition is opaque.

I'd disregard the Russian claims of 1,000+ Ukrainian casualties in 24 hours. That looks like "victory capping"—trying to hide the embarrassment of the drone strikes.

The Bottom Line

The next 12 hours are going to be brutal for the energy grid. The "Deep Freeze" is a major factor now. Keep an eye on that 260th GRAU Arsenal data—if the ammo left the depot, the launch platforms are being loaded now. Stay warm.